Utopia Talk / Politics / Iran continued

Seb Member	Mon Jun 23 09:19:47 Nim: "I never said you didn’t see that Islamic republic deterrent proxies collapsed. What I’m saying is that your strategic map doesn’t seem to update accordingly." Again, difficult to see how you can draw that conclusion; given I explicitly argued previously that the collapse of proxies would open the way to direct attacks on Iran. I don't really see how any of that I've said in the last thread would be altered one jot by the regional proxies. The current operations don't seem likely to do enough damage to Iran's nuclear capabilities and will likely leave Iran with a bomb eventually. Shattering the state is not likely to result in a stable, neutral govt. Therefore addressing the nuclear capabilities and stockpile ought to be a major criteria. Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis are irrelevant to this.
Seb Member	Mon Jun 23 09:24:25 Also it's very strange to say I think "when the dust settles they'll resume a slow march to a bomb" when I've explicitly just said I think they weren't really trying to produce a bomb, but leverage the option of a nuclear bomb for diplomatic concessions. The explicit strategic consequences of the collapse of their proxies is I think they will now *rapidly* rush to breakout. The evidence that points to this: they've been slowly incrementing the enrichment and stockpile to date and announcing it. This isn't what you do in a breakout scenario. It's what you are doing when you are trying to create political pressure on govts to engage in negotiations to give you something to stop.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 09:32:46 "Eventually" seems an odd timeline. How long to we imagine milling and forging takes? The barrier is not technical. One additional barrier to the one mentioned is of course communications. I dont think a nuclear test is the way to inform Israel that an arsenal exists. Iran does not have time to test, then tinker, and a not testing bypasses the whole awkward potential of a bomb fizzle. Informing the US and Israel in secret that a number of warheads have been dispersed seems the best way to go. Better for all parties that the public illusion of nuclear ambiguity exists.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 09:38:14 Iran does not need the proxies in an existential sense. Sure, it was caught on the back foot with very low military spending historically and its survivable missiles and re-entry vehicles with sufficient range just at the start of production and deployment. Factually, Iran is rediculously larger than Israel. Iran has strategic depth and the know-how to build up a strong conventional deterrent force based in Iran. Israel's strategic haste has a lot to do with trying to curbstomp Iranian overmatch potential without proxy crutches before it fully materialized.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 23 10:12:05 Iran does not currently have nukes because the iranians figured they would get bombed if they were too blatant about it, and therefore attempted to inch slowly/secretly towards nukes. That attempt failed. And yet again soviet air defense lulz. 10 days of US and israeli bombers flying all over iran at will with no losses at all. I am continually amazed that iran spent all this time and effort trying to build up its military and has so far been unable to kill a single manned aircraft.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 10:17:30 Fan fiction boy writes again!
Seb Member	Mon Jun 23 10:31:28 Jergul: Eventually doesn't necessarily imply a delayed timescale. The path isn't as straightforward as "cast a pit, done" and there's likely to be some circumstantial delay. Sam: Inch slowly and secretly by giving regular press releases on the state of its stockpile and the number of centrifuges? Nah. They were doing what North Korea was doing in the 90s. They didn't want a bomb, they wanted to trade the option of a bomb for reduction in sanctions. Now, they'll probably want a bomb and build one in secret.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 23 11:37:35 Lol poor jergul. You think what is fiction? Must you delude yourself because your team is being whupped as badly as any military force ever? You dont have to be on team retard you know. You live in norway. You could... you know... get back on your own side. Seb, and north korea built a bomb. Not making that mistake twice. You can prattle and talk all you want, iran was building a bomb and everyone knows it. They were hoping you would prattle and talk until they built it, but netanyahu said fuck that and pulled the sword.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 23 11:54:31 Iran is launching rockets at US facilities, iraq, qatar, and possibly UAE. If trump has balls he will destroy irans navy and start working air defense/missile sites up and down the coast. We shall see.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 23 11:55:34 Iran is also attacking bahrain.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 23 12:05:44 Iran is also attacking kuwait. Rumors that uk and french jets may be helping defend. Not quite every euro is spineless.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 12:13:50 Attacking US facilities in Bahrain* Fixed that for you.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 12:15:15 Also attacking US facilities in Kuwait* I missed that one.
Rugian Member	Mon Jun 23 12:16:12 Well, they just bought themselves an ass kicking.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 23 12:23:22 Pretty weak attack from iran.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 23 12:24:52 Lol jergul your iranian friends are proving completely impotent.
murder Member	Mon Jun 23 12:55:13 "If trump has balls he will destroy irans navy and start working air defense/missile sites up and down the coast." What navy? -
murder Member	Mon Jun 23 13:04:22 Also, what air defense? -
murder Member	Mon Jun 23 13:10:18 "Well, they just bought themselves an ass kicking." Iran isn't signing up for an ass kicking by attacking US forces, they are signing up for an ass kicking by doing the absolute minimum in response to our attacks. They keep signaling over and over again that they are afraid of a fight. If they were smart they would force a fight because Trump desperately wants to avoid one. The last thing Trump wants is a long expensive war that he can't win without deploying 100,000s of troops on Iranian soil. -
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 23 13:48:31 Ya trump really wants to puss out.
Cherub Cow Member	Mon Jun 23 14:29:46 When the neocon faggots, Christion Zio-cucks, and jews have finished with WWIII, does anyone think they'll get around to deporting all of the foreigners? Probably not, right? Kinda weird how the foreigners actually *started* after the jews infiltrated governance. Funny how that keeps happening. Gates of Toledo and all of that.
murder Member	Mon Jun 23 14:46:25 The foreigners founded this country. -
Cherub Cow Member	Mon Jun 23 14:48:53 [murdertard (left-wing dogma bot)]: "The foreigners founded this country." A bunch of Mexicans and jews did not found these United States. A nation is its people, against which are foreigners. jew globalists lying to useful idiot leftists and their zio-cucks does not change that.
Seb Member	Mon Jun 23 16:30:41 Sam: North Korea built a bomb *after* the US reneged on an agreement by imposing sanctions, declared it a member of the *axis of evil* alongside Saddam's Iraq shortly before then invading Iraq and executing Saddam. So yeah, draw the parallels. Diplomacy works until dumbass republicans fuck it all up, engage in stupid posturing and then the bad guys get nukes.
HOLY FECES Member	Mon Jun 23 16:36:32 "A bunch of Mexicans and jews did not found these United States. A nation is its people, against which are foreigners. jew globalists lying to useful idiot leftists and their zio-cucks does not change that." Oh, history called, it wants its accuracy back. Actually, the founding of the United States wasn’t some exclusive genetic country club. Let’s start with facts. The U.S. was founded by immigrants, most of whom were fleeing persecution, war, and poverty from Europe. You know, the classic "come here for a better life" crowd. Mexicans were here first in much of the Southwest. Texas, California, Arizona, New Mexico? Those were part of Mexico before the U.S. annexed them. But please, tell me more about who "belongs" here. Jews were literally among the early settlers and supporters of the Revolution. Jewish Americans like Haym Salomon helped finance the Revolutionary War. Without him, your precious Founding Fathers might have been sipping tea under the Union Jack. The idea that "a nation is its people" ignores that the Constitution and founding documents deliberately set out to create a civic nation, not an ethnic one. That’s why they wrote "We the People" and not "We the Anglo-Saxons Only." So no, your "exclusive club" fantasy wasn’t real in 1776 and it’s not real now. The U.S. was founded by a mix of people, supported by immigrants, financed by Jews, built by slaves, and expanded by absorbing former Mexican territories. History is messy like that. Sorry if that ruins the purity cosplay.
murder Member	Mon Jun 23 17:28:24 Where do all these multis come from? :o)
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 23 17:51:11 "Diplomacy works" -seb, 1938
HOLY FECES Member	Mon Jun 23 17:54:55 ""Diplomacy works"" Actually it did. There is a ceasefire in the works right now with Iran. You're welcome.
murder Member	Mon Jun 23 17:59:30 Iran turned bitch and Israel just couldn't keep up the fight.
HOLY FECES Member	Mon Jun 23 18:01:40 This would be a correct assessment. "Where do all these multis come from? :o)" Who knows?
TheChildren Member	Tue Jun 24 00:49:32 da intaceptors r gone man! less than 40 hours after da mignight hammar, they wanna quick peace we know WHY now scott ritta, douglas have once again predicted this shit correctly
TheChildren Member	Tue Jun 24 00:57:24 500 billion damaga of infrastructures says scott ritta OUCH on top of dat, iron done is myth now. we know it is myth http://x.com/KerryBurgess/status/1936197952130699714
Seb Member	Tue Jun 24 04:14:19 Maybe Iran just pretended to be having a crease fire and negotiations to deceive the US. Like the US did. It's very smart apparently. Sam: On the other hand, the UK wasn't ready to fight Germany in 1938, and the treaty bought time for significant re-armament. You need to think of these things in terms of what you want and need. If the goal is to delay it forestall an Iranian bomb was JCPOA better? Hell yes. It was demonstrably effective. Failure to build on that and create either detente between Israel and Iran or full containment was an issue; but again largely driven by Israel and US republicans desire for an illusive military solution that would give the US and Israel everything it wanted without girly diplomacy. Only the military solution looks likely to deliver less. Certainly it falls further short on the tests opponents of the JCPOA applied to JCPOA. So yeah, dummies.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Jun 24 04:49:13 Seb, This is not primarily about timeline estimates or enrichment metrics. It’s about the structure of your strategic model. There is a consistent pattern in your analysis: you advise against challenging the Islamic Republic or its regional proxies. You did so in the context of the Houthis (red sea threads), Hezbollah, and Gaza. The core assumption has remained the same — that escalation would provoke regional destabilization or uncontrolled outcomes. Yet when these confrontations occurred and the predicted systemic fallout did not materialize, your framework did not adjust. The perceived threat simply migrated: from proxy entanglement to nuclear breakout. Throughout this evolution, your framing of actors remains fixed. Israel is cast as reckless and opportunistic; the Islamic Republic as reactive, rational, and fundamentally coherent. Israeli capabilities — operational reach, intelligence penetration, long-term strategic design — were systematically underestimated. The regime’s internal fragilities, factionalism, and doctrinal limits were consistently minimized. The result is not adaptive analysis but a static model that reallocates risk rather than reevaluating threat perception. The risk is always downstream of Western or Israeli initiative, and agency is disproportionately attributed to their actions rather than to the strategic and doctrinal posture of the regime itself. This pattern mirrors the logic of restraint that failed in other theaters — notably Syria and Ukraine — where initial hesitation was framed as prudence, but ultimately enabled escalatory entrenchment. (Color me surprised that I now find you on the non-interventionist camp) In this case, the data suggests the regime’s deterrence posture was overstated, its proxy system brittle, and its escalation control weaker than assumed. Yet your assessments continue to default toward caution and the presumption of Western provocation. There is the idea (which you have also voiced) that Israel’s war in some way undermines Ukraine’s war, which holds some truth in specific domains, particularly where there’s overlap in military supply chains — such as certain munitions and air defense systems. But it’s not true as a blanket statement. Moreover, the two theaters aren’t isolated. The Islamic republic has become a key supplier of drones and missiles to Russia, and the deepening strategic partnership between Tehran and Moscow means that pressure on one can indirectly impact the other. From this angle, weakening the Islamic republic's capabilities may even help Ukraine over the longer term by constraining one of Russia’s main enablers. Iran is critical in the Chinese belt and road initiative. The Islamic republic is The source of instability in the region etc. and so on. These are complex trade-offs — and it’s valid to weigh them and discuss them — but the picture is more interconnected than a simple zero-sum logic suggests.
TheChildren Member	Tue Jun 24 05:19:03 a massive victory for da global south and da free non colonial imperialists peoples round da world as barely 2 days has passed since da heavy strikes and alrdy beggin 4 a ceasefire we know how da cards on da table rlly look like now
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