Utopia Talk / Politics / USAF on the move II

murder Member	Wed Jun 18 05:24:28 ...
murder Member	Wed Jun 18 05:28:55 "I agree. Lots of Ukrainians will likely be spiteful of Jews after this, if they aren't already." They should be angry at Joe Biden who could have stopped the Russians cold but couldn't find his balls. -
Seb Member	Wed Jun 18 05:43:25 Hmm. I wonder if plan B is a commando raid on Fordow. Seen some people arguing that's why they are hitting some of the army units. Ballsy if they can pull it off.
jergul large member	Wed Jun 18 05:45:16 Ukraine was always going to feel like it was stabbed in the back. Scapegoating Zionism will be part of that, but it will be more general than so. Nothing new here. I am sure White Ukranian generals felt quite betrayed when American and British intervention forces withdrew from the civil war in 1919.
jergul large member	Wed Jun 18 05:50:33 Seb They better hurry. Iran does have a significant mobilization potential and manpads are very bad news for that wierd little tilt engine aircraft the US uses.
murder Member	Wed Jun 18 05:54:13 I'm just busy wondering WTF the US is going to do if Iran decides that the US doesn't get to play innocent and sit out the war. What happens if Iran attacks our bases and ships in the gulf? At that point we have to engage directly, but that would really fuck up our supposed preparations to deter China. I'm not sure our policy is well thought through.
jergul large member	Wed Jun 18 05:58:48 Are you not more worried about voluntarily entering the war or getting tricked into it by a false flag operation? Israel will do what it has to do to get you involved I think. I dont think Trump cares too much about Taiwan. Better perhaps that it is gone once the chip foundries are up and running in the US.
Seb Member	Wed Jun 18 06:00:40 Jergul: I mean Israel's plan B, if the US doesn't get involved. The US will just prefer to pound Fordow with B2s I think. As you know, I don't think that's necessarily guaranteed to succeed but it's not unlikely to succeed either. By comparison a commando raid is far too risky for the US and the payoff too limited. An Iranian nuke isn't existential for them, but Israel's govt sees it as such, and if they can't get the US to attack Fordow and they don't get regime change...
jergul large member	Wed Jun 18 06:01:08 Hell, Israel can just do a "well, we really dont want to us nukes, but the only way we can destroy that underground complex is by using nuclear weapons...we will try to pretend it was an experimental Iranian nuke that exploded...but you know...soooo...unless you want to help take out that complex so we can avoid using a nuke. Whatya think?"
jergul large member	Wed Jun 18 06:04:17 Seb It has to be regime change. Nothing to stop Iran from getting a nuclear share deal with NK similar to what many Nato countries have with the US. Israel has to have known this from the getgo.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Jun 18 06:14:01 "hitting some of the army units." Looks like mostly ss-guard type units... IE the ones tasked with suppression of irans people. Give em a hand if they do ultimately revolt.
jergul large member	Wed Jun 18 06:22:29 Absolutely. That is what Israel is all about. Helping the Iranian people. Check out google for the organization actually used to control mass dissent. It has 6 million members or so when mobilized.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Jun 18 06:56:29 6 days in and we finally have the first Israeli aircraft confirmed shot down... an expendable predator type drone. Amazing performance by the idf.
jergul large member	Wed Jun 18 09:08:09 Another layer of craziness is the talk about assassinating the one man we know has been blocking nuclear weapon deployment since 2003. Iran has a line of succession, the only thing killing him will do is risk getting someone with a more flexible view on nukes.
murder Member	Wed Jun 18 09:45:54 Unrelated, but what a picture this is ... http://en....Blandy_Mushroom_Cloud_Cake.jpg 'Murica! lol :o)
TheChildren Member	Wed Jun 18 10:04:52 http://x.c...n-proves-stronger-foe-expected cant be stopped, callin it right now just look at dat speed
TheChildren Member	Wed Jun 18 10:05:12 anotha angle http://x.c...ger-foe-expectedcomment-stream GOT DAAAAUYYYMMM!!!!
Sam Adams Member	Wed Jun 18 10:47:30 "the one man we know has been blocking nuclear weapon deployment since 2003" Lol you mean the guy building massive enrichment centers while getting 15 nukes worth of material on the very edge of weapons grade whild repeatadly arming terrorist groups? Your propaganda is silly jergul.
jergul large member	Wed Jun 18 11:07:49 Sammy Are you off your meds? Your thoughts are springing all over the place. Iran could have had nukes long ago if it wanted them. The one man blocking that is still the man blocking nuclear weapon deployment. You may not be so lucky with the next guy. He may very well enter a nuclear share agreement with North Korea.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Jun 18 12:08:35 Insane and illogical. When a soviet bloc regime gets badly spanked you really just cant cope to a non-functioning degree. It is both funny and sad. Anyway iran is firing a couple ballistic missiles at a time now. Down from 100 at a time.
TheChildren Member	Wed Jun 18 12:10:16 is cope adams gonna comment on da unstoppable hypasonics clearly captured on camerah by multiple folks and how he and his fellow rightwings been copin for over 2 decades about this stuff
jergul large member	Wed Jun 18 12:13:32 "116,000 combat air sorties The U.S. and its allies flew more than 116,000 combat air sorties and dropped 88,500 tons of bombs over a six-week period that preceded the ground campaign. The air bombardment was so successful that the ground campaign was over in 100 hours. Desert Storm was the first time stealth aircraft were used in a major way" Source: the internet. So, week one is soon done with Israel on track to breaking 800 combat air sorties including the initial surprise attack surge of 300 on day one. A lot is resting on Iranians having very little in the way of national spirit because there is not much shock in this awe.
Seb Member	Wed Jun 18 12:35:11 Jergul: I don't really see the logic from an Israeli perspective on regime change without taking out Fordow. You might get a stable friendly or at least cordial regime (e.g. like the current Syrian govt). But you also might get another bunch of loonies or something like Syria or post soviet Afghanistan. In such circumstances, not having destroyed enrichment facilities and ether burying or securing the HEU is hugely dangerous to Israel. And also if you fail, Iran already had blueprints and knowledge transfer from Khan so they can probably build Pakistan's first generation of warheads and RVs very quickly. So again, failure to do real damage to Fordow probably accelerates an Iranian basic deterrent to months or a year in the event the regime doesn't implode. For me, if they don't have a plan for Fordow or it's all in on the US and the US doesn't deliver, the whole thing turns to shit for Israel. They absolutely have to get Fordow, Nantz and this third site.
Paramount Member	Wed Jun 18 12:36:43 Earthpig ”The same link, now, has other folks that seem to actually speak Hebrew saying that the teenager is inviting people in, not keeping them out.” Other folks? You mean Zionazi cyber warriors employed by the regime? Have you not learned that you can not trust them? They lie. http://x.com/mylordbebo/status/1935014539491266794
Paramount Member	Wed Jun 18 12:39:59 Nimnazios sister and other oppressed sharia women are rising up against the Iranian government. It looks like Netanyahu is going to win after all :( http://x.com/laylaaaa_1992/status/1935263149092983217
jergul large member	Wed Jun 18 12:52:54 Seb We can assume that Fordow is gone one way or the other. It still does not change anything. The only thing stopping Iran from getting nukes is still the current supreme leader. And not regime change. Regime collapse followed by anarchy. Any new regime inheriting a more or less intact Iranian state would change very little for Israel. Like I said earlier, its a good gambit. It could work. Besides, Bibi's domestic problems have gone away.
Paramount Member	Wed Jun 18 13:04:38 Iran has wiped out every Israeli airbase, forcing Israeli jets to operate out of the UK’s Akrotiri base in Cyprus. Congratulations, the UK just got dragged straight into this war against Iran..... http://x.com/ricwe123/status/1935245428972245081 Two years and Israel has not defeated Hamas yet. After attacking Iran it took two days for Israel to kneel and cry to the USA for help.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Jun 18 14:08:02 First off jergul, your moronic propaganda is way off. Israel is on pace for at least 2000 manned sorties this week, including at least 1400 strike sorties. Keep in mind the elite f35 is perfect for this, invisible to your third rate soviet bloc radars and with the range to hit much of western iran unrefueled and without drop tanks from israel. The lesser f15s and 16s are using drop tanks or refueling. And yes, the israeli campaign is obviously inferior to what the USAF can do. Which doesnt help you... israel doesnt need the usaf to defeat iran.
Pillz breaker of wtb	Wed Jun 18 14:15:52 Source on 2000 sorties?
Sam Adams Member	Wed Jun 18 14:27:57 It can be inferred from aircraft numbers, need for pilot sleep, damage done, and IDF statements. The easiest number to work with is that the iaf states 1100 targets hit inside iran in 5-6 days. Given that some targets need multiple aircraft and some aircraft hit multiple targets lets just say 1100 strike sorties. Now theres obviously some non-strike sorties as well... drone defense, recon, refueling, and especially early when there was a chance irans air force might exist, strike escort. So in the ballpark of total 2000/week or 300/day. This is also consistent with each israeli jet flying 1x per day, though i suspect f35s are at 2x. Not including drones.
jergul large member	Wed Jun 18 16:09:16 Sammy seems to forget that a significant number of targets hit where done with clandestine assets and unmanned long range drones. 800 combat air sorties this week is the high water mark. The number will continue to deteriorate.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Jun 18 16:23:17 Lol jergul math.
jergul large member	Wed Jun 18 16:24:03 F-35s have way higher maintenance requirement per flight hour than F-16s and F-15s. Yet somehow, F-35s are flying twice as much as the more servicable smaller craft.
Paramount Member	Wed Jun 18 16:32:04 A turning point http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Vqczv7XRJ0
Seb Member	Wed Jun 18 16:43:42 Jergul: "We can assume that Fordow is gone one way or the other." You seem to be having trouble following the thread of this conversation. One assumes they must have a plan because it's essential for avoiding worse outcomes. Is it really "hope Trump plays ball and MOPs work" with no plan B? Seems very risky to me. "It still does not change anything. The only thing stopping Iran from getting nukes is still the current supreme leader." Not particularly relevant to my point, and I don't think the Israelis believe that. I suspect that until recently, Iran was confident it's regional proxies were all effective deterrent along with Russia's backing, the ability to fuck up oil trade, and that all in, and leveraging hovering on breakout threshold for diplomatic concessions like North Korea in the 90s was the smart move. And I think Israel probably shared that assessment to some degree. With their regional network destroyed and Russia consumed with a European war, and the high effectiveness of Israeli air and missile defence, one would reasonably expect Iran to revise its calculations. But Israel, especially Netenyahu, has never believed Iran didn't intend to ultimately get a bomb when time was right.
Seb Member	Wed Jun 18 16:46:53 Sam: It kinda does. Ultimately they have to take out Fordow. Regime collapse plus fissile material in the hands of terrorists is an existential risk for Israel. Unless they have a plan that involves nuking fordow or some mental commando raid, the only thing on the table is Mops and they don't have a B2 or B52 to carry it.
jergul large member	Wed Jun 18 16:53:44 I think Israel thinks it can coerce the US into attacking Fordow by threatening to do it with nukes unless the US does it conventionally. Plan A - the US does it Plan B - a nuclear weapon does it Plan C - Secure the site after the regime falls, but before rabble can get there. Israel must know Iran can get nuclear weapons if it chooses to do so for as long as a stable regime exists. Bombing the site will not impact on a nuclear weapon sharing agreement at all. Israel cannot possibly be gambling on NK and Iran not reaching such an agreement once the dust settles.
Pillz breaker of wtb	Wed Jun 18 16:54:12 Israeli missile defense is admittedly better than Ukrainian missile defense (including us systems) but it isn't nearly as spectacular as the Israelis claim(ed). Although only a few Israeli missiles seems to have face planted directly into city streets so that's positive
jergul large member	Wed Jun 18 17:07:10 "Since the beginning of Operation ‘Rising Lion,’ dozens of IAF fighter jets have been operating in the skies of Iran and striking military targets belonging to the Iranian regime," the IDF said. "The IAF’s aerial refueling aircraft support these fighter jets, conducting dozens of sorties and performing over 600 aerial refuelings in the skies of the Middle East thus far." "Aerial refueling is a crucial component of the Israeli Air Force's operations in Iran, enabling the continued maintenance of aerial superiority in the region," Poor sammy.
Seb Member	Wed Jun 18 17:18:00 Jergul: I think nuclear weapons sharing is for the birds. It's a thing you made up. I also think Israel is highly unlikely to use nukes on Iran. That would definitely cause the EU to cancel it's association deal and impose sanctions, cause all its neighbours to get nukes, and make it a diplomatic pariah to everyone. And as a threat to the US I think it would backfire. Trump might well completely misinterpret it as a pass not a threat and say "oh great, you have it covered then, I don't need to piss off the half of my base that doesn't want to be in a war". Israels objective is - I think - regime change or just shattering the regime. But Fordow still has to be central as either of those scenarios could become very very dangerous if enrichment facilities remain intact or the stockpile remains unresolved; and if they fail in their primary objective they need at least significant delay to the nuclear program otherwise I reckon the current regime will have a handful of RVs and bombs to a design already tested by Pakistan on their missiles in c. A year, and then everything becomes very risky indeed.
jergul large member	Wed Jun 18 17:26:56 Seb Nuclear weapons sharing is a common arrangement. I listed the numerous countries that are in that kind of partnership. So you are saying Israel can absolutely gamble on NK and the Iranian regime not entering such an agreement in the future? I think Israel will primarily leverage the nuclear option to compel the US to take out the complex with conventional weapons. I think that the nuclear option remains a contingency in Israeli planning. Will they do it? Well, did not give a shit about genocide or an unprovoked surprise attack. Why would we care much about Israel using the only means at its disposal to keep Iran from getting the bomb (according to the sophistication with which we understand such things). Of course Israel's objective is shattering the regime and keep Iran shattered. It can be no other way. Nothing else can remove a nuclear potential. Risky? MAD still applies. The whole "Iran be crazy" was always a ludicrous thought. The only crazy I see is Israel.
Pillz breaker of wtb	Wed Jun 18 19:03:48 Why no source for refueling jergul Do you hate freedom
jergul large member	Wed Jun 18 19:26:41 http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/410260
Pillz breaker of wtb	Wed Jun 18 19:40:33 I did ask for it I guess
jergul large member	Wed Jun 18 19:47:05 I can still hate freedom if you want me to.
Pillz breaker of wtb	Wed Jun 18 20:07:33 Carry on
Earthpig GTFO HOer	Wed Jun 18 20:19:53 According to ben n, apparently Iran has been "months away" from nukes for 30 years. Including many years long periods between foreign attack. So, either: - Israel isn't a credible/honest source of information Or - it's by choice that Iran doesn't have nukes. I find the former more likely. http://www.reddit.com/r/therewasanattempt/s/87nCaH59PE
Sam Adams Member	Wed Jun 18 21:30:47 "performing over 600 aerial refuelings" Yes jergul. Now add all the unrefueled sorties. I know addition is hard for you... Thats why the f35 is almost certainly being used more. Sure its more expensive but its also better and has significantly longer range. There are other ways to disable fordow. MOPS are of course the easiest. But there are plenty of other options.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Jun 18 21:33:26 Earthpig or C: iran knows where the line is, went up to that line as close as they dared, knew they would probably get bombed for crossing it, finally crossed it, and got bombed.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Jun 18 23:06:47 There goes the reactor at arak.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Jun 18 23:33:07 http://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1935555917032075605 Iranians hit(possibly just grazed) jewish hospital with ballistic missile.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 19 00:19:32 Direct hit on the hospital. Fortunately it seems to be armored.
Pillz breaker of wtb	Thu Jun 19 00:30:43 http://www...HCeo4Pr/?igsh=NzRycDVmN2l6MWs5 Lol Also so what about the hospital
Seb Member	Thu Jun 19 01:19:15 Jergul: Nuclear weapons sharing is a thing. North Korea having a nuclear sharing deal with Iran is you flying random kites. As for Israel "gambling" on then *not* having it, I would gently remind you of Dr Strangelove's comment regarding secret doomsday weapons. If it was happening, we'd definitely be told of it.
Seb Member	Thu Jun 19 01:28:44 Jergul: "Why would we care much about Israel using the only means at its disposal to keep Iran from getting the bomb" Because of the huge menacing nuclear power invading our neighbours with escalation dominance in tactical nuclear weaponry. "course Israel's objective is shattering the regime and keep Iran shattered" You keep repeating this as though I disagree. I am merely pointing out by that such an objective *requires* destruction of Fordow and securing the stock of near weapons grade HEU; and if the plan is "The US will do it" that seems really odd. Not least as the pentagon seems divided on whether their weapons will actually work; and nobody is particularly keen to use tactical nuclear weapons. Earth pig: Bit of both. Israel has always underestimated the time it takes to enrich the uranium. It is true that for decades it's had all the parts to do so if it wanted. However, I think Iran radically overestimated the strength of its other assets and got its cost/benefit analysis wrong. They didn't expect to face a scenario where Russia was bogged down in a war in Europe, Syria imploded, and Hezbollah and Hamas hoy steamrolled and their air defences and conventional missiles defeated or largely mitigated. They felt very secure a few years ago. Under those circumstances, leveraging limits on their nuclear program in exchange for sanctions is a good deal. And when JCPOA was derailed, creeping towards threshold to keep both options open also looked a sensible approach.
TheChildren Member	Thu Jun 19 02:03:52 so anyone wanna comment on those unstoppable hypasonics that easily breached through 4 layers of "superior domez" defense rofl how culd that be, fakewestiemedia claims nottin gets through them domez?
jergul large member	Thu Jun 19 03:52:56 Seb "It cannot be" is not an appropriate response to a realistic geopolitical factor. NK was instumental in Iran's missile programme. NK has heavily assisted and continues to assist an ally quite recently. Iran has knowhow and resources NK needs. The common basis for NK and Iranian missiles allows for design compatibility (I used to inform you guys about Iran's conventional warhead development. Its warheads share a common diameter across missile types). Iran may literally only need warheads. And missile sharing is a thing as you realize. The only thing stopping this is Iran's Supreme Leader. He does not believe in nukes. The geni has been out of the bottle for a while. Israel cannot stop Iran's regime from getting nukes if the regime decides to get them. Israel's solution is of course fracturing Iran. EP Both are true. Iran's Supreme Leader banned nuclear weapons in 2003. He is the decider.
jergul large member	Thu Jun 19 04:00:43 Sammy, your fanfiction has been dismissed. F-35s are not sent over Iran to run on fumes with no reserves the maneuvre or for speed bursts. Those aircraft are refueled just like everything else. 200 sorties tops are unaided by tankers. More expensive is not the problem. It takes way more time to prep F-35s. Boy are you silly.
jergul large member	Thu Jun 19 04:28:30 Seb Your logic fails on the timeline. It has been clear for a while that Iran's deterrent triad was failing. Thus, it should have surged it nuclear weapon's programme in the interim to have deployable nukes at this point. Fact of the matter is as I say. The Supreme Leader does not believe in nukes and has banned them. The brinkmanship you see is not against Western sensibilities. It is other people in Iran pushing the border of the Supreme Leader's ban as far as they can. Sometimes individuals matter. Iran does not have nukes because of an individual. Israel went to war because of a different individual. The degree of US involvement is decided by a third individual.
Average Ameriacn Member	Thu Jun 19 04:50:26 Our planes will free the Iranian people! The Aiatollas will hang like Saddam! Only 3 days until MISSION ACCOMLPISHED? MAGA! http://www...es-closer-bombing-iran-2087771 Donald Trump Moves Closer to Bombing Iran
jergul large member	Thu Jun 19 04:50:49 Sammy, the Waah civilians does not fly. Israel is easily killing more than 10 times the civilians Iran is. In addition, what goes up, must come down. Israel is defending its airspace, this disrupts Iranian targetting and also has Israeli air defence missiles falling out of the sky. In the case of the hospital, Iran was clear on what its target was (a military-industrial complex a km away) and there is no grounds to doubt that. Israeli whining to the contray simply is an example of how dishonourable Israeli policy-makers are.
Seb Member	Thu Jun 19 04:56:58 Jergul: The idea that North Korea is going to export some of its nuclear warheads to sit under operational control in Iran seems very unlikely to me. There's a very real risk they get interdicted en route or are at risk of an Israeli counterforce strike or lost in the event of regime collapse. Commonality of designs has its own logic (and the khan network is a common element).
Seb Member	Thu Jun 19 04:58:07 "It has been clear for a while that Iran's deterrent triad was failing. Thus, it should have surged it nuclear weapon's programme in the interim to have deployable nukes at this point." Which is exactly what Israel says prompts the current action. We do know they've just told IAEA they are about to start a third site.
Seb Member	Thu Jun 19 04:59:30 North Korea loaning nukes to Iran is about as likely as France loaning nukes to Ukraine.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 19 05:03:52 Lol jergul maths. Drop tanks and aux tanks are a thing. And some flights are indeed very low on fuel. A uk f35 had to land in india out of fuel after hunting iranian drones... although we have direct evidence in this very forum that brits dont think very well. Better israeli pilots can likely cut that fine line closer and get away with it. I know you are basing your thoughts on how poorly your team can prepare aircraft but to the free world 1-2 missions per day is easy for short terms at least. And in this case it may be sustainable for much longer since pilots develop much less stress when every single mission has 0 losses and aircraft are returning without any combat damage.
jergul large member	Thu Jun 19 05:10:33 Seb What is with you british and handwaving away unpleasant thoughts? A vestige of empire and the cunning use of flags? I clarified many times that a nuclear weapon deal is only possible after the conflict ends. Feel free to explain why you think it impossible besides the reason I gave: The Supreme Leader has banned nuclear weapons. The ban is a matter of public record. Frankly, it is the only thing that explains why Iran does not have a nuclear arsenal now. The window for Iran to have nukes is less than the time that passed since its deterrent triad collapsed. There is absolutely no evidence Iran has done anything at all to surge a nuclear weapons programme. Why are some things so hard for you to admit? For example that the SL has an irrational distaste for nuclear weapons and he has defining power in Iran? The theoretical "Iran wants to leverage brinkmanship for benefit" might possibly have been an argument a decade ago before the US withdrew from the comprehensive agreement. Do try to keep up. That leverage is a figment of your imagination. Iran is as locked out of the Western economic system as it has been since the US withdrew.
jergul large member	Thu Jun 19 05:11:41 Sammy, again. Your fanfiction has been dismissed.
jergul large member	Thu Jun 19 05:27:00 And on French nuclear loan to Ukraine. Yepp, that is one of the reasons regime change (that is what Russian demands dissect to) is a clear Russian objective. It cannot afford to have a revanchist Ukrainian state with close military ties to the West, so will pursue its SMO until revanchism is no longer possible. A nuclear loand to Ukraine would be a complete disaster for Russia. Risky for France and by extention its Nato allies? Sure, but that domino logic does not follow in the case of NK and Iran. What can anyone do about it if they indeed entered such an agreement? Hence regime fracture as the only viable outcome for Israel. Which is not something Israel can do alone.
Seb Member	Thu Jun 19 05:48:32 Jergul: I'm not handwaving away unpleasant thoughts. I'm pointing out that the idea doesn't stand up to scrutiny as something that looks feasible or viable from a North Korean perspective. To leap from sharing designs to sharing nukes, especially with North Korea having C. 50, is dumb. I don't share your assessment that Iran's SL has an irrational ideological opposition to nukes. I think he's just thought they weren't, on balance, worth the risk given other assets. If he really wouldn't entertain nukes, he wouldn't have allowed such an obvious buildup of nuclear weapons infrastructure. "The window for Iran to have nukes is less than the time that passed since its deterrent triad collapsed." Not really. Their deterrence triad collapsed about a year ago, but it would take a while for Iran to come to terms with that and a strategic change to work through. And they've been distracted. They've probably been divided into two groups: one saying "Bide our time, use enrichment to get back to JCPOA, we can deal with Trump" and other factions wanting to get a bomb asap. And to be honest the first was kinda working until Netenyahu (Very clearly) decided to blow up Trump's deal and try to force Trump into a war on Iran. If they institutionally understood at the time the significance of the pager attack they should have escalated massively *then*. Instead they are the proverbial boiled frog. So no, I don't think you need to invoke Khamenni as some kind of nuclear teetotal personally holding back Iran's progression to a nuke. Good old institutional inertia and misjudgement does the job just fine. In that time they appear to have built a new enrichment site, increased the number of centrifuges operating, further enriched uranium. They still need to build multiple devices. The final stages of breakout aren't trivial. They need to manufacture say 10 devices and have them operationally ready *before* they conduct a test.
jergul large member	Thu Jun 19 06:35:58 Seb What is dumb from a NK perspective is to systematically allow the US et al. to deconstruct global partners. Never mind the direct benefits. Do you think NK would not like Iranian input into missile development and it prefers to keep its refining capacity idle? A Fatwa is a catagorical dismissal of nukes founded on legal-religious reasoning. It amounts to a Supreme Court ruling forbidding nuclear weapons. A rational SL with no particular moral qualms against the weapons would have left much greater ambiguity. A Fatwa against nuclear weapons does not cover general nuclear competence within the original NPT framework. So Iranian organizations pushed the envelope while abiding by the Fatwa decision. So, yah, the SL is an irrational priest leading Iran in an insane way just like the assumption has always been when justifying why Iran in particular cannot have nukes. He stupidly blocked weaponization. An arsenal would have saved Iran from a world of pain. As we see play out now. I trust rather than hope Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are taking notes and drawing the correct lessons from this. There is only one kind of ultimate deterrent. No doubt there are strong fractions in Iran that wanted and want a nuclear arsenal. But they are not the SL and they have no way to overcome the Fatwa while that person is still alive. The SL is a nuclear weapon teatotaler. It has been like that since 2003. Breakout was always trivial. Get under a nuclear umbrella, then manufacture and test before starting mass production. Sadly, the Iranian equivalent of a Supreme Court ruling blocked that path.
jergul large member	Thu Jun 19 06:48:19 Your underlying assumption that the rule of law is something that can only exist in the West is somewhat racist frankly. Iran has its laws. In this case a Fatwa. And it follows them.
murder Member	Thu Jun 19 07:31:43 "Since the beginning of Operation ‘Rising Lion,’ dozens of IAF fighter jets have been operating in the skies of Iran and striking military targets belonging to the Iranian regime," the IDF said. "The IAF’s aerial refueling aircraft support these fighter jets, conducting dozens of sorties and performing over 600 aerial refuelings in the skies of the Middle East thus far." This tells me more about US and allied involvement than anything else. I can pretty much guarantee that every single fighter that is entering Iranian airspace is being topped up on the way there and possibly also getting some additional fuel on the way back.
jergul large member	Thu Jun 19 08:46:59 Murder It tells you everything you need to know about Israel's operational tempo. 800 combat air sorties in week 1. This number will continue to deteriorate as critical repair needs and limits on crtical munitions bottleneck operations
jergul large member	Thu Jun 19 08:59:49 My many word point is of course that Israel cannot fracture the Iranian regime without major US involvement and that Israel has bet heavily on US involvement from the moment it planned to assassinate high ranking figures in the Iranian chain of command. I dont think anyone actually believes Trump will keep the US out of this. Kind of sad that you let Israel dictate US policy actions. I am sure there is a historical analogy, but I cannot think of one.
TheChildren Member	Thu Jun 19 09:37:27 so da stock xchange, da intelligence gatherin place house, and some hospital got hit 2day... now i aint no math xprt or somethin but it sounds like da intaceptors r startin 2 run dry. something scott ritta said few days ago i sinse seen some other videos sayin they got like 2 weeks maybe less left of intaceptors after that iran owns da skiez if they arent alrdy. i mean awfully lot comin through so samcopiumadams still claimin victory ? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cyad5r9Ne0k got dauyummm this man was right bout everything since 2022
TheChildren Member	Thu Jun 19 09:44:45 looks like scott ritta was right bout da port also...he says da port got hit hard few days ago... word on da street is da port is out of commisision right now
Seb Member	Thu Jun 19 09:58:02 Jergul: In short order: no I don't think the idea of North Korea giving away a fifth to a quarter of it's nuclear arsenal passes the sniff test. Especially not when you consider how North Korea conceptualises their use in practice. There's absolutely nothing irrational about issuing a Fatwa against nuclear weapons when you think overall it's not worth pursuing it, and nothing that prevents him revising his Fatwa. That's a thing that can happen. I do think it's a bit naive of you to imagine that the supreme leader has not an iota of cynicism in him and that communicating his policy as a Fatwa must mean it's an inviolable personal principle rather than a contextual position.
TheChildren Member	Thu Jun 19 10:03:05 BUHAHHAHA is this u sammy? http://www..._levin_screams_at_fox_viewers/ HHAHAHAHAA almost uncanny da resemblense, no?
jergul large member	Thu Jun 19 10:17:11 Seb Yes, Supreme Court judges flip-flop on their own written arguments and rulings all the time. Countless are the number of time a supreme court justice has changed his mind and completely reversed his written argument with new musings. /s. Just no. The SL is morally opposed to nuclear weapons and considers them Haram to Islam. There is absolutely no way for him to walk that back even if he were so inclined. NK needs survivable missile technology that Iran has. Iran needs about 1 years worth of NK warhead production. It is rational for both Iran and NK to do this if not for the fatwa blocking it. Naive would be to think that anti-nuclear posture will survive a succession. Too many powerful interests want nukes as soon as possible. I would not be so sure that Israel or the US are the ones that might pull the trigger on the current SL. It is proven that the ultimate deterrent is the only deterrent that works. An interesting lesson for all of us really.
TheChildren Member	Thu Jun 19 10:18:03 on anotha note, wut is da timeline we is livin in when this is openly on tv http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aci6KkHX-Rg craaazzzzy times, son
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 19 11:01:31 Irans senior officer bunked got bombed. Looks like about 30 generals/senior staff. Internet is now out in the entire country. Still only 1 israeli drone shot down. Lol your soviet bloc air defenses are amazing jergul. Why doesnt everyone buy tors and s-whatevers?
jergul large member	Thu Jun 19 11:26:24 How many pictures of destroyed Tors have you seen? Or S-whatevers?
TheChildren Member	Thu Jun 19 11:29:53 tc gives u da latest! a NUKE 4 a NUKE!!! holy shaaat, gone batshit? http://www...f-bombs-inactive-iranian-heavy
TheChildren Member	Thu Jun 19 11:30:53 also da comments r gold. word on da street is, da hospital is next 2 military hqs...
TheChildren Member	Thu Jun 19 11:43:25 also holy shit: ___________ "Col. Douglas Macgregor's assessment of Iran's retaliatory strikes: “Well, you have seen the quote from Ben-Gvir because he was asked why are you turning now to the Americans so soon? This is after the first 72 hours. And he said because we didn't understand or appreciate the enormous striking power of the Iranian missile arsenal. So I think the Israelis are in bad shape. About a third of Tel Aviv has been damaged or destroyed. And I'm sure that will continue. As far as their military installations are concerned, I'm told that they're flying a lot of aircraft out of the country. Many are being flown to Cyprus in order to avoid being struck. I think Israel is on the ropes to be blunt. It has only a few days left in terms of... air defense capability. And some people have described to me, they're on the ground, over there the Iron Dome is a giant sieve...” _________ so scott ritta was right then
TheChildren Member	Thu Jun 19 11:53:11 so a nuke gonna be used against a nuke site 2 prevent nuke eh... sounds like a hollywood script "mommy r we da bad guys" mommy: *starts cryin*
jergul large member	Thu Jun 19 12:06:43 On NK http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EC7lEHqu16s
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 19 13:33:16 Trump still getting strung along by irans promisses of deals, might pussy out.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 19 13:40:30 "How many pictures of destroyed Tors have you seen? Or S-whatevers?" Many. Lol soviets.
Paramount Member	Thu Jun 19 14:20:09 The obliteration of Zionism is a victory for humanity.
Paramount Member	Thu Jun 19 14:37:28 ” I think Israel is on the ropes to be blunt” Maybe we’ll see a regime change in Israel. Trump should support this. If he is smart.
Paramount Member	Thu Jun 19 16:09:04 I don’t know if this is real or ai but it sure does look sweet. I’m getting an erection. http://youtube.com/shorts/8mb7OCLlCFE
Paramount Member	Thu Jun 19 16:12:34 Maybe it is this building? http://youtube.com/shorts/rGRxzpeCEBo That’s what happens when you have command centres in the city. It could also have been a targeted attack on a member of the IDF or on a family member of it.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 19 16:14:21 Rumors of a bunker buster going off in Khameneis neighborhood...
Paramount Member	Thu Jun 19 17:01:29 Holy crap. Maybe Sir Douglas is right. Israel is on the ropes. That’s why Netanyahu was begging for help. Tel Aviv is burning: See 5:06 http://youtu.be/TdhKRfP-O4o And at 6:12 lol listen to these vampires they are screaming as if they are seeing sunlight. Karma, bitch.
Pillz breaker of wtb	Thu Jun 19 17:13:09 I wish these videos were better authenticated and dated. I am curious if arrow/iron dome is suffering more malfunctions as time goes on. Footage seeeeems to suggest it might be but impossible to tell
Paramount Member	Thu Jun 19 17:37:41 Asgard should live stream for us from Tel Aviv and tell us what is going on. Come on, Asgard.
Pillz breaker of wtb	Thu Jun 19 18:03:58 Ya bit disappointed by the lack of initiative, asgard
obaminated Member	Thu Jun 19 19:20:46 Yeah that video isn't real. If you are seeing your city demolished you are laughing and saying "no fucking way!" Yall got played by ai.
obaminated Member	Thu Jun 19 19:21:09 You arent* laughing
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