Utopia Talk / Politics / USAF on the move

Sam Adams Member	Sun Jun 15 20:50:21 http://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/1934423890043838574 Each one could be dragging a squad of fighters
Sam Adams Member	Sun Jun 15 21:08:57 More popping up on the tracker. 20 something tankers on or moving towards the atlantic tracks.
Pillz breaker of wtb	Sun Jun 15 21:35:29 Probably just a loan to Bibi so Israel can sustain operations a bit longer
Pillz breaker of wtb	Sun Jun 15 22:42:26 Footage of over a dozen consecutive impacts on an Israeli city. Don't even see air defense in response. Also have footage from Egypt where you can see interceptions, impacts, and air defense launches. Israel not having a good time it seems.
TheChildren Member	Mon Jun 16 01:23:01 so they drag everyone in2 war they start then they hide and call 4 everyone 2 assist them who does this so 4 da last 2-3 years u see many ppl sayin in comments all over da intanet, that they gonna launch and get everyone in2 ww3... so it turns out 2 be true then
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 16 01:29:18 Ya that last iranian wave got about 10-20% through. Mainly hits on random civilian buildings though. Iranian missiles arent very accurate. Meanwhile israeli planes are running all over western iran trying to get launchers. Like 91 all over again.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Jun 16 03:55:35 Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: Parliament is preparing a bill to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Paramount Member	Mon Jun 16 04:11:19 Signingn the NPT gives them the right to a nuclear program and to produce nuclear energy. The other signatories has an obligation to assist Iran on that matter. When the other signatories does not abide by the treaty and when there is a non-signatory (Israel) who demands whether signatories of the treaty should have the right to nuclear energy or not, then what is the point of the NPT? Treaties, rules and laws does not exist anymore. We live in a lawless world.
murder Member	Mon Jun 16 04:16:28 I'm kind of wondering why China wouldn't just finance this war for Iran. If Iran can draw the US in and keep us tied up, we can't deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 16 04:25:11 The NPT has all kinds of responsibilities for nuclear power. Involving the transfer of tech for peaceful nuclear development, but the whole logic of the treaty stands on nuclear powers refraining from attacking non-nuclear powers. But "preparing a bill" is just diplomacy. Indicating consequences if the conflict draws out. Hence the Foreign Ministry talking about it.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 16 04:27:39 It does not matter that Israel has not signed as the treaty logic still stands on all nuclear powers refraining from attacking NPT signees. This is true for other conflicts too (ahem Ukraine).
jergul large member	Mon Jun 16 04:33:53 http://www...3_or_thaad_launcher_trying_to/ Air defence launcher in Israel blowing up. You may want to reevaluate accuracy estimates sammy.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 16 04:37:10 And it looks like the Haifa refinery is toast. No wonder Israel needs tanker support. It now needs an aviation fuel bridge.
Paramount Member	Mon Jun 16 04:55:04 Isn’t it cheaper, easier and better to just kill Netanyahu and his closest accomplices? The war would be over then, jews will be safer, the region too, and the USA can concentrate on their other criminal activities elsewhere on planet Earth.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 16 05:20:51 Jergul celebrates the failure of a single western missiles and the minor damage to the refinery. I guess these are glorious victories when you are getting smoked this badly. Meanwhile what are these glide bombs doing over tehran? I thought you told me there were no israeli aircraft there? Soviet air defense says thats unpossible. http://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1934456340312891776 Lol
Paramount Member	Mon Jun 16 07:19:59 Israel is bombing itself and killing their own people and then blames Iran: http://x.com/dd_geopolitics/status/1934440513417208032
Paramount Member	Mon Jun 16 07:21:45 Holy crap!! I’m going to cum http://x.com/militaryy111/status/1934571353862279457 Is this the end of Zionazi Israel?
Paramount Member	Mon Jun 16 07:24:41 ” The USS Nimitz has been DEPLOYED to the MIDDLE EAST. The aircraft carrier is 50 years old and set to be RETIRED next year.” So it is a perfect target for the Zionazi vampires. They will sink it and blame Iran. Lol
Hrothgar Member	Mon Jun 16 08:00:55 With Israel able to act with impunity from the sky over Iran, seems to me like time is on Israel's side. Each day will see ever more crippling losses to Iran's ability to launch those barrages as the launchers, missile stockpiles, command and control, and means of production get taken out due to lack of any defenses from air strikes.
murder Member	Mon Jun 16 09:08:21 Israel has kind of already admitted defeat by asking the US to do the job that they set out to do but couldn't do. -
Paramount Member	Mon Jun 16 09:11:39 Israel started a war on Iran. Less than two days later they are on their knees begging the US for help and promising to kill women and toddlers in Tehran.
Paramount Member	Mon Jun 16 09:12:46 The commander of the Zionazi Air Force, Major General Tomer Bara has been eliminated.
Paramount Member	Mon Jun 16 09:16:48 Iran cuts all cooperation with IAEA after bad faith acts from Rafael Grossi (Director General of IAEA) collaborating with the Israelis, and several members who have backed the Israeli aggression against Iran.
Paramount Member	Mon Jun 16 09:32:29 Israel assassinated the Swedish UN peace negotiator Folke Bernadotte in 1948. Israel assassinated their own president Rabin for negotiating peace in 1995., Israel assassinated Hamas negotiator Ismael Haniye and his entire family in 2024. Israel assassinated the Iran's negotiators in 2025. It is clear that the Israelis has never wanted peace. The Israelis feed on blood and they want war so that they can kill toddlers and women, and then tomget high on the smell of the killed women’s bra and underwear. That is how sick they are.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 16 09:36:57 And another carrier... things are already going terribly for iran and now this. Irans air defenses are gone again. Its air force and navy never appeared. And the US hasnt even engaged. Amazing.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 16 09:38:06 Iran is asking for talks. Very heavy bombing in tehran now. Lol.
Paramount Member	Mon Jun 16 09:50:54 Meanwhile in Gaza. The Jews shot and murdered dozens of hungry children who were trying to receive food aid GRAPHIC: http://x.com/partisangirl/status/1934593006813979005 Well at least the vampires are well fed on blood now.
Paramount Member	Mon Jun 16 09:53:59 The US navy is on their way to help the baby killers. USA and the Americans must be proud.
Paramount Member	Mon Jun 16 10:04:39 Israel has bombed a hospital in Kermanshah, Iran.
Paramount Member	Mon Jun 16 10:44:18 Shelters for Jews only Israelis preventing Thai and other foreign workers from entering underground bunkers. http://x.com/doamuslims/status/1934579626740695405 There are only two kind of people in the world. There are Jews and there are Amalek. We are all Amalek.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 16 11:58:20 http://x.com/AuroraIntel/status/1934641788385480830 Rough days coming for iran if that hopelessy indefensible drone is able to patrol over tehran. Lol jergul. Ready to concede?
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 16 12:06:20 Seriously iran has spent the last 30 years buying russian shit specifically to defend their skies against little israel and yet israel has free reign over the capitol in 4 days without the loss yet of a single plane? Given their strike rate an israeli fighter should have accidentally crashed by now and that hasnt even happened. This might actually be the worst defeat/most impressive beating in the history of all wars ever. Lmao soviet air defenses... gotta love em. No seriously western air forces love this shit.
Pillz breaker of wtb	Mon Jun 16 12:15:56 The issue isn't (just) soviet equipment. We can see in Russia's massacre of the Ukraine, soviet air defense is gonna fire at shit. It honestly seems more likely that Israel sabotaged Iranian air defenses. There's not really any other explanation for their (very complete and utter) failure. Given Israel infiltration of Iranian intelligence / military / etc... It's looking more and more plausible Israel wants Iran to strike it with these missiles. Just to garner international support and legitimacy.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 16 12:47:57 http://x.com/idfonline/status/1934667510571241524 No! Why did they have to hit those old beauties. They belonged in a museum!
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 16 12:55:51 This is the worst thing the idf has ever done. Seriously.
Pillz breaker of wtb	Mon Jun 16 14:09:11 Sam finally on team #nukeisrael
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 16 18:00:39 "Everyone should immediately evacuate tehran" -Donald Trump, president of the United States.
Asgard Member	Mon Jun 16 18:02:56 Trump, breaker of Paramounts, slapper of Jerguls
Pillz breaker of wtb	Mon Jun 16 18:12:05 US isn't doing anything but you better bet the IAF is gonna be putting those 20 tankers to use
Hrothgar Member	Mon Jun 16 18:31:58 This whole shit show makes me so sad for Ukraine. With a relatively small amount of direct help from NATO Ukraine would legit have air dominance over their occupied regions within days, at very low NATO losses.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 16 18:40:58 20 US tankers would certainly help israel. But trump just left the g7 conference early and just told tucker carlson off for being a iran stooge. I think we might have gotten intel on where some iranian nuke components are and need b2s dropping mops to finish them off before they can be smuggled out. OR trump simply sees how vulnerable iran is and now that israel has torched their entire military he wants in on the gangbang for some extra fun.
Pillz breaker of wtb	Mon Jun 16 18:54:36 There is no way on earth the US bombs Tehran with mops - or at all. That is an unmitigated disaster waiting to happening.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 16 18:58:15 We would be hitting the uranium refining underground. Away from civilians and mostly contained underground. Contamination will be minimal. Like natanz is already leaking but not bad.
Pillz breaker of wtb	Mon Jun 16 19:07:28 That's a lot of assumptions
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 16 19:21:57 True. My confidence level in these moves is not high.
obaminated Member	Mon Jun 16 19:25:59 Trumps about to destroy tehran
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 16 19:55:12 NYT is indeed saying trump is thinking bunker busters from our heavy bombers agaist the shielded nuke plants. But thats nyt so that hardly increases our confidence level vs the previous real non-journalist data.
Pillz breaker of wtb	Mon Jun 16 20:40:04 People trying to evacuate Tehran. But Inconsequential probably in the grand scheme of things
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 16 21:32:27 Oil tankers burning in the straits
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 16 22:20:07 Marine tracking data shows 2 oil tanker tracks intersecting at night. Possible one was attacked and then the other arrived to help but i think more likely the retards collided. Good timing guys.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 16 22:25:15 Irans gps jamming probably contributed but youd think the morons probably should have seen eachother.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 16 22:30:37 The one that veered suddenly looks like a russian sanction violater. Classic incompetent russians.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Jun 17 03:20:58 There is no path forward where the Islamic republic as you have come to know it will survive. Right now heads are running hot, but once the dust settles there is no escaping the reckoning: you built an identity around "death to israel" for 40 years and this is all you managed to achieve.
murder Member	Tue Jun 17 04:00:54 We've found out that Soviet era air defenses weren't great ... especially in the hands of the incompetents in Iran ... and it looks like we're going to find out about Soviet anti-ship missiles now. We're going to see if Iran can make good on the threat to close the gulf. Unless Iran just wants to surrender and shame Allah and Muhammad. That twelfth Imam better turn up quick, or all Shiites need to convert. Buddhism would probably serve them better anyway. -
murder Member	Tue Jun 17 04:01:42 "Classic incompetent russians." Or maybe intentional?
murder Member	Tue Jun 17 04:06:11 "There is no path forward where the Islamic republic as you have come to know it will survive. Right now heads are running hot, but once the dust settles there is no escaping the reckoning: you built an identity around "death to israel" for 40 years and this is all you managed to achieve." Does that really matter? As long as most of the most violent people in Iran support the Islamic state, I don't see it going away. This is no doubt humiliating, but Iran is a big country and Israel and the US can only do so much damage. Also I think a lot of opponents of the regime will flee to other countries which would have the opposite effect to the one that is desired. -
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Jun 17 04:15:46 Depends on what you think is "going away", there is some variance I agree, but I stand by the statement: You could have total collapse and revolution, but you can also have something bearing the name "Islamic republic of..." survive for a bit longer. But, there is no path forward where the Islamic republic as you have come to know it will survive.
Asgard Member	Tue Jun 17 04:31:19 Naturally the US won’t attack Tehran They may attack the nuclear facility that’s insode a mountain plus other critical things necessary to end the nuclear threat from the muslim pedophiles gangbanger rapists though
murder Member	Tue Jun 17 05:16:46 "Marine tracking data shows 2 oil tanker tracks intersecting at night." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4dWc9JD6Uo
Seb Member	Tue Jun 17 06:37:53 Not clear if they succeeded in neutralising Nantz - Iran seem to be filling the craters in ways that look more like preventing "digging" rather than e.g. preventing contamination. And fordow is estimated to need digging. I.e. multiple on point strikes from MOPs to succeed. Plus the rationale for all of this was that there was yet another covert facility we didn't know about. If they don't get regime change, I suspect this will be a strategic failure and Iran will get a bomb by the end of the year. And to Hrothgar's point: yes.
Seb Member	Tue Jun 17 06:43:42 The other thing though, is of the regime does collapse but isn't stabilised (and let's be honest, who is going to do that? And Bibi is actively intervening to destabilise Syria despite a very promising govt the west can do business with), you have a failed state with multiple radical factions with access to lots of nasty weapons and a stockpile of HEU, and potentially enrichment equipment. So yeah there's that. All in all, it would probably be better if Netenyahu and Trump hadn't fucked the agreement Obama signed, unless there's some way to conjure a nice liberal regime into being in Iran. But that ain't happening. Europe is busy preparing for war with Russia, America doesn't give a fuck and is drifting to civil war on its own population. Russia is consumed with Ukraine, and China has no interest. It's perfectly possible that what emerges on Iran is just a failed, ungovernable space.
Seb Member	Tue Jun 17 06:44:31 Basically it's a giant gamble on Iranian liberals to somehow stabilise Iran on their own with little to no outside support.
murder Member	Tue Jun 17 06:53:42 "And to Hrothgar's point: yes." Been saying it from day #1. If Biden wasn't a cunt, we could have walked the Russians right back out the way they came in a couple of weeks tops.
jergul large member	Tue Jun 17 07:03:09 A failed, ungovernable space is an Israeli win. Any other path will eventually lead to Iran maturing into its natural space as the region's premier economic power alongside Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The Israeli gambit remains US involvement or social collapse. Otherwise, it just returns to business as usual. Iran will continue to refrain from developing a nuclear arsenal barring some black swan event like NK transferring several dozen warheads in exchange for oil and missile technology. There remains very little risk to Israel here. Still, early days. Russian troops were outside Kiev at the same point in time in that war. What I dont get is how people are extrapolating critical losses to Iran from the limited imagery shared so far. We do know how much of a pounding countries can easily absorb from Ukraine. Israel's volume is way lower than what Russia does in a typical week. Most of the imagery seems to be from clandestine operations and drones launched inside Iran or from neighbouring countries. But certainly, F-35s refueled by tankers can follow limited paths into Iran and drop their two small bombs each. In addition to stand-off munitions and expendible drones of course.
jergul large member	Tue Jun 17 07:06:53 I also dont get that extrapolation murder. Iran was pearl haboured with the heavy use of clandestine assets. Waltzing in with unsupported F-35s was not how the operation was planned or could be planned. But why not give Ukraine some F-35s and see how it works out?
Seb Member	Tue Jun 17 07:55:18 Jergul: They certainly think it is. I'm less sure it would be if a dirty bomb, or god forbid a crude gun type goes off on a plane or cargo ship in Israel.
murder Member	Tue Jun 17 11:18:34 "I also dont get that extrapolation murder. Iran was pearl haboured with the heavy use of clandestine assets. Waltzing in with unsupported F-35s was not how the operation was planned or could be planned. But why not give Ukraine some F-35s and see how it works out?" This has nothing to do with giving Ukraine anything. We have F-35s, and F-15s, and F-16s, and we know how to use them, and we have the assets to make them effective. WE should have done the job. -
Sam Adams Member	Tue Jun 17 12:21:06 Lol jergul is in utter denial about the whupping his soviet bloc team is getting. Funny. "All in all, it would probably be better if Netenyahu and Trump hadn't fucked the agreement Obama signed" All in all it would probably be better if irans dictators hadnt tried to build a nuclear bomb while chanting death to america and promissing to wipe israel off the map and arming hamas and hezbollah. This is 100.0000% their fault. Now there are a number of possible endgames, some better than others: Less probable: irans sane population revolts and iran turns into a peaceful non-nuclear state like most other countries. More probable: we have to keep bombing every so often when they try to regroup/rebuild nuclear facilities. Like what we did with saddam for a decade, syria, qadaffi, what israel is doing now with the terror groups. A permanent very low scale conflict to keep irans military in a permanently degraded state. Also possible: some chatoic balkanization set of civil wars like libya/syria. A dictator takes over who is more friendly. All of these are vastly more preferable to iran getting nukes.
Sam Adams Member	Tue Jun 17 12:31:12 http://x.com/i24NEWS_EN/status/1935019887149134135 If this is the kind of minor target tracking being done over tehran, irans air defenses are shattered. Amazing.
Sam Adams Member	Tue Jun 17 12:36:44 Seems like irans new military chief was killed this morning. Lol he lasted 4 days.
Pillz breaker of wtb	Tue Jun 17 12:49:39 There is zero chance for balkanization of Iran. Even at 15% capacity they trounce all neighbors or minor interior militias. The only concern for Iran as a state is turkey. Also no chance a more favorable leader emerges for the US or Israel now. You have thrown away any chance at garnering support or cooperation from the Iranian people sam
Pillz breaker of wtb	Tue Jun 17 12:50:38 More correctly Israel did it. And then Trump hammered it home that the Iranian people will pay for the Islamic Republic. And the Iranian people already hate America.
Paramount Member	Tue Jun 17 13:07:09 ”Sign the document or we will kill you!” – USA Fascist gangster. The USA must be destroyed.
Paramount Member	Tue Jun 17 13:11:14 And Israel too.
Seb Member	Tue Jun 17 13:30:41 Sam: "This is 100.0000% their fault." N00b. It's not a conversation about fault. We can only control our own actions after all. I reckon it's far more likely the outcome of the actions the US and Israel chose will be worse than if they had chosen differently. Of course the Ayatollahs have a huge culpability in all of this. "All of these are vastly more preferable to iran getting nukes." In all of your scenarios you discount the possibility that a more extreme and unstable regime or faction in Iran gets hold of nukes. That's substantially worse than Iran getting them (bearing in mind I have a 20 years history of saying here that I think that's pretty catastrophic outcome).
Seb Member	Tue Jun 17 13:33:38 At this point I think the chances of an Iranian breakout look pretty likely too. After all, if the major argument against the JCPOA is that they US and Israel thought they couldn't reliably uncover hidden facilities, and the trigger for this event was in part a belief that Iran had commissioned such a facility, there's a real chance it won't get bombed because we don't know where it is.
Seb Member	Tue Jun 17 13:40:24 http://apn...8b811da537abe942682e13a82ff8bd If they are announcing a third site, the pattern suggests it's already operational. Better hope we know where it is. Otherwise they are probably going to have a bomb and the "mow the lawn" strategy becomes substantially more difficult for Israel. Can't keep assassinating the entire regime regularly and expect them not to nuke Diamola or something.
Seb Member	Tue Jun 17 13:42:11 I hope we get regime change and stabilisation. If not I would say we are in for a lot of trouble going forwards.
Pillz breaker of wtb	Tue Jun 17 14:31:15 Some very bad AI images of downed F-35s in Iran, lmao
Pillz breaker of wtb	Tue Jun 17 14:32:02 Almost certainly done with grok3 An Egyptian friend showed them to me. If I can get them I'll post them. One has 3 wings.
Seb Member	Tue Jun 17 14:35:00 Pillz: Is that the one there are tiny buildings in the left bottom corner, and then a crowd of people the size of houses around the plane, but the plane is the size of a town? That one was hilarious.
Asgard Member	Tue Jun 17 14:41:55 Seb Member Tue Jun 17 13:42:11 I hope we get regime change and stabilisation. If not I would say we are in for a lot of trouble going forwards. —— Wow, hey Relax, Britain is well on its way to become Anglostan, gove itna few years.
Sam Adams Member	Tue Jun 17 15:15:25 "here's a real chance it won't get bombed because we don't know where it is." Israel seems to know where every single person in irans leadership is. It is unlikely the iranians can hide anything large. "In all of your scenarios you discount the possibility that a more extreme and unstable regime or faction in Iran gets hold of nukes." Well thats why we are bombing the nukes before they are completed. Genius i know. Amazing you didnt think of that. Sure theres a chance that we fail and iran gets nukes. But iran would certainly get many more nukes if we did nothing.
Sam Adams Member	Tue Jun 17 15:18:19 "You have thrown away any chance at garnering support or cooperation from the Iranian people sam" Probably. I wouldnt rule it out. Lots of iranians hate the muslim dictatorship.
jergul large member	Tue Jun 17 15:27:47 Sammy There is a chance NK gives Iran nukes. Not uncommon. Several Nato countries have nukes on loan and Belorus does.
jergul large member	Tue Jun 17 15:30:52 Not now during an active conflict, but, well, that is one way the West and Israel's anti nuclear Iran ambitions can unravel fast.
Pillz breaker of wtb	Tue Jun 17 15:40:51 What???? The uk is gonna do what now????
jergul large member	Tue Jun 17 16:23:49 Point of mentioning it is to underline that limiting attacks to ensuring Iran loses nuclear capability was always unattainable without regime change. There is no ensuring because someone else can give them a nuclear umbrella. We know this. We are all under a nuclear umbrella unless we have nukes ourselves.
obaminated Member	Tue Jun 17 16:41:42 Israel isn't targeting civilians locations, they are hitting military target, nuke facilities and precision bombing the military leadership. Point being they are making a clear effort to avoid pushing the civilian population towards the theocracy they didnt want a week ago.
jergul large member	Tue Jun 17 16:49:00 A broadcaster is a civilian location. An apartment where a military official lives with his family is a civilian location. Israel Pearl Harboured Iran. Fine I suppose, but do try to avoid pretending Israel is honourable.
Seb Member	Tue Jun 17 18:42:35 Asgard: Nobody in the UK is interested in getting hints on how to run a country from a bunch of genocidal maniacs.
Seb Member	Tue Jun 17 18:50:48 Sam: "Israel seems to know where every single person in irans leadership is. It is unlikely the iranians can hide anything large." And yet that was the entire reason Netenyahu said that JCPOA couldn't work because the risk was intelligence agents couldn't tell them where the Iranians might hide their facilities. "Well thats why we are bombing the nukes before they are completed" It's far from clear Israel has been successful at Nantz, and it's also not entirely clear that the US can be successful at Fordow. And then there's the third site. "But iran would certainly get many more nukes if we did nothing." On the other hand, the current Iranian regime has been successfully deterred from using day less significant capabilities. So if Israel or the US isn't successful, and the Iranian regime is not replaced with a stable liberal regime, you might be looking at something with the level of restraint that ISIS had, but with a nuke. Or at least a radiological device. And that's much much worse in my view. Anyway I think Trump's second instinct - get a deal - was correct (his first instinct to tag JCPOA was dumb). And Israel's is terrible. It's a huge gamble on regime change, and basically just thumbing their nose at the US while dragging it around on a leash in a gimp suit.
Seb Member	Tue Jun 17 18:56:56 Thing about MOP is it can penetrate 80m of soil. But Fordow is 100+m of granite and reinforced concrete. And MOP isn't so great at that. It might take many successive hits on more or less the same spot to burrow down. Not impossible, but also not easy and not something that can be done in a single sortie.
jergul large member	Tue Jun 17 19:25:44 Vibrations without penetration will in this case, like some others, get the job done. It still does not change the calculus. Iran has other paths to nuclear weapons (The same one as Turkey or Belgium), so the nuclear disarmament plan was never viable. This is about something else. Regime collapse and failed state status has to be the goal. Serbia withstood worse. We will see what kind of balls the Iranian people have.
Paramount Member	Wed Jun 18 00:28:27 ”if the Iranian regime is not replaced with a stable liberal regime, you might be looking at something with the level of restraint that ISIS had, but with a nuke” - Seb You mean Iran will be like Israel then?
Seb Member	Wed Jun 18 00:52:44 Jergul: Depends. There's ways of building underground structures to resist shockwaves. Yes the goal is regime change, I said as much. That's somewhat beside the point though. The question is about what happens to the fissile material. It's a pretty risky move all around.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Wed Jun 18 01:08:58 @sa "Rough days coming for iran if that hopelessy indefensible drone is able to patrol over tehran." Unless the point of it is to see what anti-air assets reveal themselves to shoot it down. "No! Why did they have to hit those old beauties. They belonged in a museum!" I, too, was sad about the F-14s. It's crazy how close the US and the old Iranian gov't used to be. We didn't even give the Brits the F-14! "More probable: we have to keep bombing every so often when they try to regroup/rebuild nuclear facilities. Like what we did with saddam for a decade, syria, qadaffi, what israel is doing now with the terror groups. A permanent very low scale conflict to keep irans military in a permanently degraded state." I believe "mowing the grass" is the term you are looking for. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowing_the_grass I agree this seems very likely. After so many years of sanctions and isolation, we wind up creating these hyper-resilient regimes that seem to last a really long time. @paramount "Israelis preventing Thai and other foreign workers from entering underground bunkers. http://x.com/doamuslims/status/1934579626740695405" The same link, now, has other folks that seem to actually speak Hebrew saying that the teenager is inviting people in, not keeping them out. @pillz "It honestly seems more likely that Israel sabotaged Iranian air defenses. There's not really any other explanation for their (very complete and utter) failure." I'm actually not at all surprised. We give Israel our best equipment, they are up against decades old Soviet stuff. The qualitative difference here is *greater* than the difference between the US and Iraq in 1991. @Hrothgar "This whole shit show makes me so sad for Ukraine." I agree. Lots of Ukrainians will likely be spiteful of Jews after this, if they aren't already. ------------- Iran has a pretty resilient regime and economy, with lots of heroes and martyrs. I could be wrong, but I don't think it's going anywhere any time soon. Right wing nut jobs also tend to also prop each other up, since they can point the finger at each other as why you need them. So even if something were to happen, I'd be surprised if it happened when the global pendulum was swung so far to the right.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Jun 18 01:25:35 "Unless the point of it is to see what anti-air assets reveal themselves to shoot it down." True, but in this case we also have photos of gravity bombs falling over, lots of explosions in important buildings, and no video of SAM launches... so it does appear that tehrans air defense is in less than good shape.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Jun 18 01:29:31 "Or at least a radiological device." Sure. I think theres a decent chance terrorists get their hands on such. But that is still WAY safer than ayatollahs with real nukes.
Asgard Member	Wed Jun 18 02:16:56 There is no room for the UK in this discussion An irrelevant, weak, has-been, ruled by a blank doll activist lawyer pretending to be a politician, and a country that will soon become an islamic caliphate. Boring.
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