Utopia Talk / Politics / Ukrainian offensive

Seb Member	Mon Apr 24 05:48:50 Establishing positions on the south/east bank in Kherson around the antanov bridge. Diversion? Shaping Op? The offensive?
jergul large member	Mon Apr 24 06:00:25 Public relations in prep for giving up the rest of Bakmut? A sense of "doing something" for troops relegated to the backwaters of the conflict on the West side of the Dnipro? A meaningless operation meant to bolster Western weapon supplies? A meaningless operation in place of the vaunted Spring offesive as we move towards summer? Activity aiming for better funding and equipment for Ukrainian units in the Kherson section? Some brigade officers stationed in Kherson wanting medal and promotion opportunities inherent to the hype of a minor cross river expedition? Ukraine is constrained by the same logic that forced Russia to give up the right bank of the Dnipro. Its just not viable to support major operations without secured bridges. So a big nothing sandwich.
jergul large member	Mon Apr 24 06:10:17 My best bet would actually be the Ukrainian Navy wanting a bigger slice of that sweet, sweet military aid and funding. It has sort of lost its point outside of acting as regular infantry. So is doing something that will be inevitably hyped hard. Take for example landing a company or so in the no-mans land of the swamps and dunes of the near left bank. It gets its very own thread in Utopian forums! We can only imagine what CNN will make of it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Naval_Infantry
jergul large member	Mon Apr 24 06:12:12 This is incidentally not a Russian talking point. It is also in Russia's interests to hype activity for the same reason it is in Ukraines. Hype shifts militiary supply priorities.
Seb Member	Mon Apr 24 06:20:20 Shall see.
jergul large member	Mon Apr 24 06:25:47 Hype? Yes, hype is very easy to see. Visibility is one of hype's defining characteristics.
Seb Member	Mon Apr 24 10:57:03 https://read.gov/aesop/005.html
jergul large member	Mon Apr 24 11:10:32 Seb That link is a self-inflicted injury seb. Ukrainian public relations is not heavily burdened by a commitment to facts. One might almost call some of their outreach efforts for fairy tales like you inadvertedly suggested. Major river crossings without air dominance tend to end poorly. http://www...air_bombs_strike_on_ukrainian/ Looks like a major bridgehead of several small buildings almost across the entire Dnipro was hit.
TheChildren Member	Mon Apr 24 11:12:59 alrdy failed be4 it began. so says da leakz.
Paramount Member	Mon Apr 24 12:15:05 Perhaps Ukrainian soldiers will be walking against Kiev? http://youtu.be/4jkBtKkN3Pg
Seb Member	Mon Apr 24 13:45:15 No it isn't. I refer you to the question in the opening post.
jergul large member	Mon Apr 24 15:27:07 And I refer you to the questions in the 2nd post. We can all do "Have you stopped beating your wife yet?" rhethorical questions. Not really a very advanced debating technique. Nothing sandwiches that may have PR or resource priority motivations and conscequences. You saw the clip of the terrain, right? Its not the place for major river crossings unless you really like swamps and sandbanks.
Seb Member	Mon Apr 24 15:54:37 My comment on sour grapes is not a self inflicted injury - my referring you back to my question in the OP was a reminder that I am not suggesting it is a stunning new success but rather an open question. Jergul, you've made your opinion clear. Quite predictably, you believe it to be an empty PR statement. The tone and cadence of your posts particularly after "we shall see" were very vituperative shrew - and I felt it necessary to gently point that out to you. You struggle to approach this in a detached way. Russia's power and framing it as morally equivalent to the west is fundamental to your outlook. You are too invested in your framing to have a conversation with on this subject.
Seb Member	Mon Apr 24 15:56:57 "Its not the place for major river crossings unless you really like swamps and sandbanks." It appears to be the point where the antanovsky bridge hits the east side. So I suppose the threat here is about patching up the bridge once they control both sides. I presume what they may be trying to do is force Russia to divert troops (the dregs of the mobiks are holding Kherson at the moment) and stop relying on the Dnipro to be the main defence.
jergul large member	Mon Apr 24 16:19:21 Seb There are areas where an advance like that would be tremendously significant and justify the loaded questions you asked. A minor river crossing to the island of velikij potemkin just makes no sense and cannot be framed within the questions you asked. The river is defended by the 5th Combined Arms Army, the 381st Motorized Rifle Regiment, the 126th Seperate Coastal Guards Brigade and the 349th Guards Rocket Artillery Brigade. What you should assume they are trying to do is create some hype in order to secure funding and equipment. Interbranch competition is a thing you know. The navy has sort of lost its purpose, so sort of has to do something. Jot it down to go with the unsuccessful oceangoing drone attack a few days ago. "Something must be done. This is something, therefore we will do it".
Seb Member	Tue Apr 25 00:06:51 Jergul, you've been telling us all it's PR for ages. Your position is noted. Predictable even.
jergul large member	Tue Apr 25 01:46:46 Seb Of course its predictable that a few zodiacs partially crossing the Dnipro is about PR and inter branch resource priorities. The maritime drones attacking Sevastapol was of greater military significance even if the drones were intercepted. Speaking of predictable. You falling into the hype and pedaling it with a very own thread + loaded questions was not exactly a bombshell. Ukraine will probably do something that is actually relevant in the coming months. Why not wait and hype that?
jergul large member	Sat Apr 29 09:48:40 Russia also thinks this is a Southern Command initiative. Well, "this". It has been doing many things. Took out an oil (maritime fuel) tank on Crimea with a drone today. Russia claims to have hit Southern Command HQ today with precision munitions. Interesting as Russia generally does not hit strategic command levels.
Paramount Member	Sat Apr 29 16:36:10 Why wouldn’t they hit command HQs? In March, Russia supposedly hit a major Ukrainian command bunker outside of Kiev, a precision strike that killed 300, along with dozens of high ranking nato and ukrainian officials.
jergul large member	Sat Apr 29 21:39:01 Para Decapitation strikes add uncertainty. Obits of those high ranking Nato and Ukrainian officials? People dont just fall off the face of the planet. If there was a mass casualty event, it would be noticable.
Paramount Member	Sun Apr 30 01:43:41 If Nato does not want it to be known to the public that a dozen or more Nato officers were killed in an Ukrainian command bunker, then they won't publicize their deaths. Remember, this is not a war between Nato and Russia. Ukrainine could of course publish obituaries, but they have not been open about their losses.
jergul large member	Sun Apr 30 15:41:17 Para Think it through. A Norwegian is killed. So his family is not going to have a funeral or make obits?
Paramount Member	Sun Apr 30 16:53:23 Okay, that would speak against that officers from NATO would have died in a Ukrainian underground bunker. But what if the families are not being told where and how the persons died? Or, what if the families has agreed to not make it known to the public where and how their family member died?
obaminated Member	Sun Apr 30 17:27:00 Para, stop, you are clearly out of your element.
Seb Member	Sun Apr 30 17:58:35 You can't hide 300 senior officers all mysteriously dying young of unrelated tragic accidents.
Sam Adams Member	Sun Apr 30 23:34:55 Is pillz hiding?
Hrothgar Member	Mon May 01 01:12:27 "Is pillz hiding?" Maybe he decided to visit glorious, illustrious Russia and got drafted into the Russian army. His dreams came true.
obaminated Member	Mon May 01 12:57:54 If that is the case then pillz is currently being tossed around as currency by his comrades.
pillz Member	Mon May 01 15:28:21 All of my waking hours are being spent leading in an FSU raze-based crown attempt after 30 ages away from top play. Russia will win the war without me posting here.
Forwyn Member	Mon May 01 15:34:49 "You can't hide 300 senior officers all mysteriously dying young of unrelated tragic accidents." Just heart attacks bro, the regular kind
TheChildren Member	Mon May 01 15:49:26 sure they can...theres been a suspicisous amount of helicopter crashes lately. did those things even happen at all. we seen iron man, they can make up all kinds of shit. wuld u even know if they did. they been makin up all kinds of shit. xinjiang accusations...been 7 years. after 7 years not a single shred of evidence, no mass refugees no nottin. if ur neighboor accuses ur other neighboor of stealin in front of other neighboors, but fail 2 provide proof after 2 months let alone 7 years, everyone else alrdy knows wazzup biothces, wazzup. wazzup.
seb Member	Mon May 01 16:08:23 Forwyn: Like I said, hard to hide. Very obvious pattern in obits for anyone looking.
TheChildren Member	Tue May 02 14:03:18 oops http://twi...ive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse straight from da horses mouth! thats wazzup. wake up call.
Paramount Member	Tue May 02 15:06:31 What if they don’t publish obituaries? Far from everyone do that. In fact, if everyone who died had his own obituary, the paper would be like 100 pages of obituaries. So a lack of an obituary is not a proof of that someone hasn’t died.
Paramount Member	Tue May 02 15:10:54 ” oops http://twi...ive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse straight from da horses mouth! ” Yes, the truth is starting to come out. They can’t continue to lie anymore.
Seb Member	Tue May 02 15:34:58 Sure, there's loads of the Russian military that hasn't been touched. Unfortunately the ones that have are supposed to be the best.
Seb Member	Tue May 02 15:37:27 Ground forces. Of course their undersea forces haven't been touched ... lol.
Seb Member	Tue May 02 15:39:52 If most of Russia's actual combat capable ground forces were not affected by the invasion, they wouldn't be drafting hundreds of thousands of people and re-activating ancient tanks from mothball. They wouldn't be cancelling the may day victory parades.
jergul large member	Tue May 02 20:52:25 Seb May day parades in border areas to Ukraine are hard to do securely. Mobilization is due to troop density needs in Ukraine. Russia's standing army is simply not big enough to secure a 1500 km frontline, engage in offensive operations, and care to its other security needs. Some units were hit quite hard. More than a year ago. The upside is those units have no trouble attracting replacements because, well, they are the best. Russia would be digging tanks out of storage regardless. Donbas units have been incorporated into the Russian armed forces and are in the process of getting a standarized TO&E. Russia's biggest problem is literally the SMO. It could do light interventions with the now defunct BTGs. It can do full out mobilization. But the hybrid variant leaves every deployed brigade and divsion at 2/3rds strength. The other 1/3rd is back in the motherland dealing with conscript inductions. Conscripts that cannot be used in the Special Military Operation, though quite a few will sign contracts when their conscription ends.
Seb Member	Wed May 03 04:13:16 jergul: 400 miles from the border? "Russia's standing army is simply not big enough to secure a 1500 km frontline, engage in offensive operations, and care to its other security needs." Yeah. So when we say "the majority of it's army isn't affected", what we actually mean is "the important parts of it's army from a Ukranian/NATO perspective - the offensive bits - are". Nobody cares that much that there are loads of folks patrolling the border etc. - they aren't necessarily going to quickly translate into particularly effective offensive combat troops and they aren't going to be able to unless the Russian's decide their border no longer needs defending. The idea that Russia is "holding back" is nonsense. It's thrown everything it can reasonably throw for now. As for mobilisation - their winter offensive was underwhelming. So we shall see. I think they are limited by many other constraints bar manpower in any case.
Sam Adams Member	Wed May 03 08:33:54 Lol look at this fake as fuck russian drone attack on their own kremlin that they are trying to put together for desperate propaganda. Definitely the mark of a winning non-desperate army right?
jergul large member	Wed May 03 08:49:55 Seb Yepp, 400 miles from the border. Hit a year ago. Ukraine has rebuilt entire brigades in less time. You don't think Russia can do it too? Russia never announced a major winter offensive. Western media did. I suppose so we can conclude the offensive was ineffective. What Russia has done is first stop the Ukrainian offensive, then apply pressure along the entire Eastern line of contact. Russia is holding back in sense that it is building up artillery ammunition stockpiles. True dat other limitations than manpower come into play. The actual reason why Putin has not declared a mass mobilization. Russia has the actove manpower to match equipment on hand. Mobilizing more would end up with crazy shit like equipping troops with Maxim guns. Ultimately, Russia's game is one of attrition. 160k conscripts a year form a consistent pool from which contract soldiers can be hired. The Ukrainian number is in the region of 25k fit for service 18 year olds in country per year. Not that they form a pool. They are conscripted, given rudimentary training (no longer than a month) and sent to active units. It frankly does not really matter where the line of contact is for as long as Russia can bring its fire superiority to bear. You should care that Russia can rotate brigades in and out of combat. You really need to start beating Russia more. It still is poised to have a much stronger military than pre 2022 in some years time. Combat hardened and with a clear understanding of procurement needs. So what if it is cleaning out old hardware from storage depots? Russia is holding back. Political leadership has not been hit. The bridges over the Dnipro still stand. Though it was prolly wise for Zelenskij to be in Finland when the Kremlin was hit by a drone. It really does continue to amaze me that people think Ukraine can achieve its goals.
murder Member	Wed May 03 10:01:22 "Lol look at this fake as fuck russian drone attack on their own kremlin that they are trying to put together for desperate propaganda." If we gave Ukraine 100 Tomahawks, then Putin wouldn't have to fake it.
jergul large member	Wed May 03 10:36:37 What fake attack? Ukraine lacks plausible deniability.
jergul large member	Wed May 03 10:37:25 Also, rofle@subsonic missiles. Has the war in Ukraine taught you nothing?
murder Member	Wed May 03 10:47:48 Yeah, it's taught me that Russian air defenses suck.
jergul large member	Wed May 03 10:52:17 That would be incorrect.
jergul large member	Wed May 03 13:01:15 I see we are running with Russia attacked itself again. Like with North Stream. Russia blew it up so that natural gas sent to Europe had to through Ukraine and Russia wanted to pay Ukraine transit fees. It makes perfect sense. Zelenskijs comments are demonstratably untrue. Ukraine has attacked inside Russia proper many times. Now, Zelenskij may not have signed off on the attack and is doing some major damage control right how. Ukraine has to blame Russia because some weapon systems are being denied Ukraine because they can attack Russia proper. Ukraine needs to be credible in assuring it will not use them that way. At least until it gets the systems. Ukraine also needs to attack Russia. It knows very well from its own experience how the need to defend airspace over cities lessens air defences over soldiers. Anything that can divert Russian air defences will help the great counter offensive greatly. Ukraine has been trying to use gdams recently. It has cost them 3 aircraft with no discernable effect. Air defences also shoot down Himars, gdams and heavy rocket artillery. It also needs to credibly argue that Russian air defences are weak enough to allow f-16 use if it wants traction on getting the aircraft deliveries.
Sam Adams Member	Wed May 03 13:31:54 "Also, rofle@subsonic missiles." Says jergul who thinks a 30 mph drone blew up the kremlin.
Sam Adams Member	Wed May 03 13:34:46 Either it was a false flag or russian air defenses really really suck. You choose jergul.
Paramount Member	Wed May 03 15:19:58 The Nazis are losing http://twi...?s=61&t=C7YI8upxCqhyhPMRv9y0zg
Paramount Member	Wed May 03 15:25:33 I’m thinking that the drone over Kreml might have been a Russian excercise, a test to see how well they can defend Kreml from a drone attack. Someone nearby had an iphone and happened to film it. But then again, it could very well be Ukrainians who did it.
Paramount Member	Wed May 03 15:28:42 It could be Ukrainians who are testing the Russian defences for the May day parade.
Paramount Member	Wed May 03 16:06:12 Medvedev : After today's terrorist attack, there are no options left except for the physical elimination of Zelensky and his cabal. He is not even needed to sign the act of unconditional surrender. Hitler, as you know, did not sign it either. http://twi...?s=61&t=C7YI8upxCqhyhPMRv9y0zg Lol
jergul large member	Wed May 03 16:08:04 Sammy Ukraine has demonstrated for over a year that Soviet doctrine and modernized hardware provides comprehensive and robust air defence. So yes, rofl@subsonic missiles. What Russia is not doing is providing comprehensive coverage for its cities. It does not have to and prefers heavy coverage in active combat zones. The rational Ukrainian motive is clear. Force Russia to divert air defences from the front to protect its cities. This in addition to embarrassing the regime and boosting domestic moral. The Russian motive? What exactly does Russia gain by attacking itself?
Paramount Member	Wed May 03 16:38:46 Russia has a history of attacking itself. It was they who put sanctions on the Nord Stream and the companies building it, not the US. It was Russian warships and airplanes who used to harrass their own workers at the Nord Stream 2, not American warships and airplanes. Russia fired rockets at themselves at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. So it is pretty clear who attacked Kreml. Russia itself.
Sam Adams Member	Wed May 03 19:12:59 "What exactly does Russia gain by attacking itself?" Morale for recruits. Conscripts dont fight well. I mean we can see russians never fight well, but conscripted russians fight even shittier than most. "What Russia is not doing is providing comprehensive coverage for its cities" Except the kremlin and pootins various hidy holes.
obaminated Member	Wed May 03 21:45:35 Ukraine gains nothing by killing putin. Killing putin makes him a martyr and gives the Russians a big reason to ensure they win. Doing a false flag op, which Russians are experienced in, gives putin a propaganda boon at a time when it is clear the war is not going swimmingly. Tldr - Russia gains a lot more by faking this attack which conveniently was caught entirely on camera than Ukraine which loses a lot even if the assassination is a success.
jergul large member	Wed May 03 23:45:54 Obam and sammy It was not an assasination attempt. It was just construed as one in the same way a drone hitting the white house would be considered an assasination attempt. Rally around the flag effect? That is what you think the Russian motive is? Always these sociological explanations to explain why Russia somehow benefits from attacks. The Ukrainian motive is straightforward. Get Russia to decrease air defence density on the frontlines by forcing it to protect cities.
Seb Member	Thu May 04 03:20:26 Any internal threat to the regime comes from Moscow. So far Moscow and other metropolitan areas of the Russian core and their population has largely been spared the draft, and been told the war is a special military operation that won't matter much to them. As it becomes clear bigger sacrifices are needed and it's harder for Putin to articulate a return to "normal", the more important it is too raise the stakes and convince the rich population around Moscow that like it or not they are in a serious war with a serious threat from Ukraine and that the only path out is a decisive victory over Ukraine and that this requires greater sacrifices. That's as plausible as anything. Other explanations: Groups in Russia seeking to destabilise the govt. Ukraine actually attacking (consider this implausible given American public objections to such things and the need to continue getting seems). Ukrainian publicity stunt: they've flown little recon drones around the Kremlin, maybe the Russians shot another one down. They don't need to provoke the Americans by sticking a grenade on it. Simply embarrassing the Russians by taking pictures and putting it on the internet or dropping a Ukrainian flag over the top of the dome will get air defences moved to cities. Etc etc.
murder Member	Thu May 04 07:36:11 lol at passing off those fireworks as attack drones. What were those things supposed to do, take down the flag? :o)
jergul large member	Thu May 04 07:42:15 Ah, more sociology. Bigger sacrifices? The regime must have projected at least a 20% loss of gdp on the pivot to Asia, The Southern Americas and Africa. Two put-put drones do not even factor in. Groups in Russia = Ukrainian intelligence providing capability. You know how many million ethnic Ukrainians are in Russia, right? The last scenario is not only PR. It has the intent of diverting Russian SAMs from Ukraine as it demonstrates the capacity to do harm. Not that waving flags is Ukraines MO. So what I am saying. Zelenskij lied. Ukraine has attacked Russia proper many times. Nothing he can say or do will alienate the US. Etc, etc means you have more sociology? I await with baited breath. KISS. Ukraine and Russia are at war. Ukraine attacked Russia. End of story.
Seb Member	Thu May 04 08:58:56 jergul: "he regime must have projected at least a 20% loss of gdp on the pivot to Asia, The Southern Americas and Africa." Jergul, there's absolutely no evidence that Russia really expected to lose its European gas exports going into this "special military operation". What the regime may have factored in or not factored in subsequently is at odds with what they have been telling the Russian metropolitan elite. " It has the intent of diverting Russian SAMs from Ukraine as it demonstrates the capacity to do harm." As pointed out, they already achieved that - there are several deployed PANTSIR systems pushed into Moscow a few weeks back following their last PR stunt. "Ukraine has attacked Russia proper many times." Yes, deniably and military targets. Blowing up the Russian Whitehouse is a different matter. "means you have more sociology" The outcome of wars depend a lot on morale. It is rather amusing to see you try and pretend its an irrelevance. "KISS" From you, this is hilarious. Russia has repeatedly downplayed or blatantly lied to diminish every known Ukrainian attack so far rather than admit Ukraine can touch them. This and the supposed assassination attempt a few weeks ago mark a sudden change in tone. Good luck explaining that without "sociology".
jergul large member	Thu May 04 09:59:49 Seb European gas exports is just revenue. The sanctions were predicted and impact estimates far exceeding what has played out so far. I think everyone underestimated exactly how much gdp was being syphoned off by oligarchs currently under heavy sanction and force to invest domestically. The Metropolitan elite watches the same broadcasts as everyone else. They have been told for a long time that Ukraine prolly should be nuked. "Several" SAM batteries does not even factor in to the air defence density covering the front line. 100ds might start to make a difference. See Ukraine's forced air defence priorities for details. Deniable because we are useful idiots. The primary objectives are infrastucture and oil tanks. Acceptable targets, but hardly military. Depends on moral? Remind me again how many million Ukrainians remain abroad? Including teenaged males that have turned 18 after emigrating. Adhom. Yawn. The sudden change in tone (if we want to call it that) came with the Ukrainian offensives and the battle of bakhmut. Nothing new about Ukraine assassinating public persons. The drone incident simply was not a botched attempt. Through constued as such because you would do the same if the Whitehouse, Buckingham Palace, or Whitehall were targeted by two midsized drones. So apply sociology to that. Why are attacks on physical seats of power thought of that way?
Seb Member	Thu May 04 11:06:28 Jergul: "They have been told for a long time that Ukraine prolly should be nuked." Yes. And what do you think the subtext of that is? It's 'don't worry, we can't lose, we are a nuclear power, anything that would seriously threaten us can be resolved because nobody would dare confront us'. This has not turned out to be the case, and to win in Ukraine is costing them a lot more and impacting the metropolitan core far more than they have been selling it. You can call it sociology if you like. And we can call energy politics plumbing and pretend it has no impact on geopolitics. ""Several" SAM batteries does not even factor in to the air defence density covering the front line." So attacking an area that has already had significant re-enforcement seems (a) likely to fail (b) not going to encourage further redeployment - you'd attack areas that are currently not defended. "Remind me again how many million Ukrainians remain abroad?" Whaaaaatabout!!!! Whaaaaaaataboutt!!! Waaaaaatttttaabbbbbbbbbbouuuuuuttt UUUUUUKKKKKKKKRRRAAAAAINEEEE???!!>!>! Stop changing the subject. There is actually very good reasons for staging a falseflag operation here - Russia is well known for it - indeed it's part of how Putin came to power in the first place. "Adhom." Nope. I'm describing your denial as amusing, not that your argument is shit because you are making it. "Why are attacks on physical seats of power thought of that way?" For the same reason Hitler decided to burn down the Reichstag. Symbols are important (whether to the Ukrainians if they did it [they likely didn't], Russian agitators, or the Russian govt trying to manipulate Russian politics in their favour).
jergul large member	Thu May 04 11:51:30 Seb Its just McArthur in Korea. The Chinese can help as much as they like with as much Soviet hardware the USSR cares to send. If push does come to shove, we have nukes, they dont. What is it costing who? Employment is at record highs. Russians are looking to a small improvement in purchasing power. No consumer supply issues. If you mean liberals are unhappy with the shift away from the West, then sure. But that is a feature, not a bug from the regime perspective. It begs comparison to Ukraine. How is not all that way worse in Ukraine? Who then is going to break first and might need to try many different things to try and change the trajectory? Data does not support your position, so you use women's studies techniques to postulate nonsense. Ukraine cannot use airpower in a meaningful sense beyond the very low level shoot and scoot lobbing of unguided rockets at absolute maximum range. Not sure how Nato is teaching them combined ops. Do we even know how to fight without airpower? Moral is an attrition question. So if you raise moral, then we have to ask who will break first? How about the country where millions have already fled and dont want to come back? Does it not seem like the most vulnerable to moral issues? You are not using "whatabout" right. Still adhom. No matter if it amuses you or not. Yawn. Trite. Yes, I am denying a woman's studies approach to understanding the conflict. Your feelings do not matter. Ukraine stands to gain from scratching a kreml dome. Russia does not. According to Godwin's law, you just lost the discussion. Speaking of trite. A doolittle raid more like. Marginal damage at a heavy cost. But Japan diverted fighters from China and boy was it a moral booster.
murder Member	Thu May 04 12:15:10 "rofle@subsonic missiles. Has the war in Ukraine taught you nothing?" Same exact guy ... "Slow ass Ukrainian drone armed with a firecracker made it all the way to the Kremlin". To answer that first question again ... I learned that a lol@subsonic missile can turn a guided missile cruiser into a leaky submarine.
jergul large member	Thu May 04 12:51:31 Murder The drones made it most of the way to Moscow in a crate. I am pretty sure US surveillance and intelligence did some pretty heavy lifting for Ukraine. But yes, the premise of rofl is layered air defence. I will retract the rofl if you start sending your carriers to sea without escorts too. What percentage of cruise missiles does ukraine need to shoot down before you too will rofl@subsonic missiles?
Sam Adams Member	Fri May 05 09:58:23 http://twi...tatus/1654479701182758912?s=20 Rofl. Russian logistics skills strike again.
Sam Adams Member	Fri May 05 10:16:14 http://twitter.com/Baterial1/status/1654268174018260992?s=20 Rofl this is the best video of the entire war. Prigozin standing in a field of his own dead ranting. Gerasimov!! Shoigu!!! Where the fuck is ammo!!! Ahahaha.
jergul large member	Fri May 05 10:54:51 Sammy Nothing to do with logistic skills. Any unit can expend way more artillery and ammunition that it is supplied. This is Wagner wanting more and the General Staff wanting stockpiles to deal with the Ukrainian offensive. Ultimately, it boils down to Ukrainian air defences. Russia can only use bombs with great difficulty. So arty has to fill the gap. Of course Prigozin wants more arty shells. He is not wrong about how it limits losses Ukraines trouble in bakhmut boils down to the same thing. It is not lack of manpower, it is lack of arty to support them, so it lost the town.
murder Member	Fri May 05 11:02:46 Finally the long awaited Ukrainian offensive! http://www...ack-sea-grain-summit-rcna83035
Sam Adams Member	Fri May 05 11:03:05 Russia cannot supply ammo to a fight 100 miles from its own border. "Nothing to do with logistic skills." Says jergul. Lol.
Sam Adams Member	Fri May 05 11:05:00 Lol murder i love how that filthy russian steals a ukrainian flag and gets immediatly beaten and then hides behind security.
Paramount Member	Fri May 05 11:50:55 So Wagner says they will withdraw from Bakhmut on May 10. Is this a trick or will they do it?
murder Member	Fri May 05 16:27:14 I think Putin is going to have whatshisface killed if he keeps mouthing off.
jergul large member	Fri May 05 20:22:14 Sammy Russia can easily supply and expend 50 000 arty rounds a day. Times 400 days of combat = 20 million rounds. The limiting factor is production, not logistics flow (Donbas has dutch levels of rail density). Para I think he will get enough ammo to stay.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Sat May 06 01:57:50 "I think Putin is going to have whatshisface killed if he keeps mouthing off." We're assuming it's not all at some level scripted. One of the head logistics honchos recently replaced was whats-his-name's buddy. The new guy, whom he cussed out, is not his buddy. I can fill in the blanks in several different ways. It's not at all clear, to me at least, that whats-his-name is acting in good faith even when he's ranting.
jergul large member	Sat May 06 02:54:04 Its a problem as old as war. Squabbling over the division of finite resources. Ceasar wrote about it in his book about Gaul (Gaul allies felt they were being shortchanged on supplies). Patton was outraged at some of Eisenhower's calls on supply priorities. He aint wrong. Lots of arty lowers friendly casualties. Ultimately, the problem can be attributed Ukrainian air defenses. Artillery has to do what aircraft could easily do if not denied access. So ammunition is a constant bottleneck.
jergul large member	Sat May 06 07:50:06 Prigozhin is bad at math though. 25% casualties per month does not mean everyone is a casualty after 4 months. Of 100 people, 68,5 would become casualties in 4 months with 25% casualties per month.
Paramount Member	Sat May 06 11:33:45 I just thought about something. Everyone been saying that Wagner is Putins army. Doesn’t that mean that they go and stay whereever the Russian MOD tells them to go? If Prigozhin and Wagner can go and leave as they please, wouldn’t that mean that the West have been wrong about Wagner being ”Putins army”? If Wagner is leaving Bakhmut on the 10th it is because the Russian MOD wants them out and maybe needs them elsewhere? There are also reports on that Kadyrov and his Chechens will replace Wagner in Bakhmut. Maybe Wagner will have a month of well deserved rest before they are going to Kiev.
Paramount Member	Sat May 06 11:44:28 Maybe Wagner is going to back to Syria or to Sudan?
Paramount Member	Sat May 06 11:45:27 We’ll see on May 10 what happens!
Paramount Member	Sat May 06 11:48:30 If they really are Putin’s army then maybe Putin needs them to defend Kreml and Putin’s office as the Ukrainian offensive reach Moscow?
TheChildren Member	Sat May 06 14:15:40 http://www...icians_are_urging_ukraine_not/ how culd this be? i thought da ukraines and da west was winning?
TheChildren Member	Sun May 07 15:32:10 lookz like there aint no withdrawin.
Hrothgar Member	Mon May 08 09:17:30 Found some stunning news about the looming Ukrainian offensive: https://tinyurl.com/3jkbwsr6
Hrothgar Member	Mon May 08 09:17:39 http://tinyurl.com/3jkbwsr6
murder Member	Mon May 08 09:45:28 That seems a bit optimistic. :o)
Sam Adams Member	Wed May 10 00:09:16 Many rumors of the russians breaking and fleeing bakhmut. Enough so that while the biggest rumors are likely exaggerated, it is likely that russians have suffered some sort of decent sized defeat.
Seb Member	Wed May 10 03:33:07 A recently mobilised unit - got hit by one of the Ukrainian "air assault" brigades (they are not air assault, that's just a term they use for their elite brigades). I wonder if the Ukrainian offensive initial focus might be on kicking the crap out of the Russian forces around Bakhmut. If their theory of victory is to cause morale collapse in Russian forces and Russian population and drive a wedge between PMCs, Russia military and the separatist forces that might be effective. "Look at all the wasted lives and not only did you fail to capture Bakhmut, Ukraine completely undid it" would be quite the pitch. Especially if Russia's fall back position from "3 days to victory" is "we must protect and liberate Donetsk".
jergul large member	Wed May 10 04:42:55 The Russian messaging has been "we are fighting to defend Russians and their homes from ultra nationalists". You are conflating that with Western pundits claiming Bakhmut is a key Russia propaganda goal (because who does not want to define critical victories as what penal forces achieve?) With that said, there is an attack and counterattack on a small salient Russia held on the western side of the Sivetsk canal. Not sure why you felt the need to say "recently mobilized". I guess I can toss in "recently reconstituted after being destroyed at Mariupol" about the air brigade you mentioned then.
jergul large member	Wed May 10 04:51:40 Air brigade is a term they use for relatively lightly equipped mechanized brigades. In theory, air transportable, rapid deployment forces. Elite compared to territorial defence units, but not as heavily equipped as regular mechanized brigades. The designation did not exist before 2022 so it all quite adhoc. The one in question is reconstituted Azov. It has a good tick-tock branch, so take the news with care.
Seb Member	Wed May 10 08:26:13 jergul: "recently mobilized" - because it is. You'd expect lower cohesion and willingness to fight as a result.
Paramount Member	Wed May 10 12:28:55 Recently mobilized http://twi...?s=61&t=C7YI8upxCqhyhPMRv9y0zg
jergul large member	Wed May 10 16:03:23 Seb What about the unit that was reconstituted with recently mobilized after being destroyed in Mariopol? Do you expect lower cohesion and willingness to fight as a result? Or is that logic only valid for Russian forces? Incidentally, there are such things as mobilized units, but those were constituted more than 6 months ago. So you have a novel understanding of the word "recent". Remember that both sides have ample reserves at this point. Russia does not really have much trouble pushing anywhere. It runs into trouble when reserves re-enforce the sector it is attacking. Now lets check today's news to see if Ukraine's attack ran into trouble once Russian reserves pushed in.
Seb Member	Thu May 11 01:20:58 Jergul: "Do you expect lower cohesion and willingness to fight as a result?" Potentially. However you might also expect them to have higher willingness to fight as they are actually defending their homeland from a country that would destroy it if it could do so. But sure, ok, we can also say the relatively lightly equipped, recently mobilised, Ukrainian unit with low cohesion and poor morale routed the 74 Russian motorized rifle brigade in a recent attack.
Seb Member	Thu May 11 01:22:39 I also continue to think the training and equipment the spearhead Ukrainian units e getting is better than what the Russian Mobiks are getting.
jergul large member	Thu May 11 01:46:00 Seb Actual data suggest moral is unproblematic for both sides. The total POW count is under 10k per side. The 72nd (not 74th) was not routed, even azov said it bashed only two companies (3 main companies per battalion, 3 main battalions per brigade). We are speaking literally of a small salient on the Western side of the sivesk canal. You are sure Western training is appropriate? We do combined ops with heavy reliance on air power. Mobilized Russian troops already had 2-3 years training (mobilization came from manpower on the reserve list), then were given additional training over the last 6 months since mobilization. You can think as you like. I think you want a bigger cope cage to keep your hope in. The one you have it in now seems overflowing.
jergul large member	Thu May 11 01:53:40 Incidentally, easily the most significant development in the last few months is Russia bringing JDAMs to bear. Not yet at volume (strikes number in the handfull per day). Gravity bombs just have such a rediculously large explosive mass compared to rockets and most artillery. In addition to to precision feature but of course.
	show deleted posts