Utopia Talk - Politics - All of Economics is wrong

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Utopia Talk / Politics / All of Economics is wrong

Nimatzo
iChihuaha Fri Nov 05 18:29:45
If you have followed Eric Weinstein, you have heard him talk about this, TL:DR the people who measure inflation figures, do not know how to measure inflation, not even theoretically. Here is a good video on that:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK1mh6uvExw

CHALLANGE ACCEPTED!

@EricRWeinstein
ANNOUNCEMENT: I head next week to
@UChicago
for 5 days (Nov. 8-12) at the request of its storied Department of Economics to present our theory that all of economics is based on the wrong version of the differential calculus.

Importantly, this error afflicts Inflation & the CPI.

jergul
large member Fri Nov 05 21:03:22
Everyone knows inflation is measured wrong.

What has the inflation rate of a Tesla share, or a house in LA been over the last 5 years?

jergul
large member Fri Nov 05 21:05:24
Point is. If you want to measure inflation, then you have to measure how much things people buy have increased in price.

Pretending a standard cell phone is not actually more expensive today because it is *better* misses the point.

Habebe
Member Fri Nov 05 21:47:03
Yup, not to mention how special inflation isn't counted but for real for real, thats some of the most important factors.

Price of gas in the last year has gone up atleast 50%, if you look at some outlier prices by much more.

$3.00/gallon in the US is too costly IMHO.Were a driving nation.

jergul
large member Fri Nov 05 22:13:43
Well, maybe dont cash you stimmy check. Stomp out inflation at the source.

nhill
Member Fri Nov 05 22:28:22
This clip very much underrepresents the depth and maturity of thought Mr. Weinstein has put into Gauge Theory, but it gives you a taste. Nearly all significant economic policy is driven partly by inflation measurements which are known to be incorrect as they don't account for changing preferences.

And yes, jergul, it's the biggest open secret of economics. ;) They all know it's bullshit, but as long as the Federal Reserve can form their monetary policy around a flawed measure of inflation (flawed to the downside), they can continue to pad the pockets of themselves and their friends.

nhill
Member Fri Nov 05 22:30:07
The problem is that if we had an accurate measure of inflation, people would realize that our economic policy is what it is: serving those who have already become rich.

It should come as no surprise. 10% of the USA population is millionaires. If you're a US citizen and not a millionaire, you aren't even in the 90th percentile.

Nimatzo
iChihuaha Sat Nov 06 04:58:42
Nhill
Thank you for the rebuke (j/k), now it would be appropriate that you give a better source :P

Jergul
Ok, but the point is that Eric Weinstein claims he and his wife Pia Malaney corrected the theory, in the 90's! and now one of the world's most renowned school of economics with 13 nobel laureates, in economics, has said, OK show me.

I want shit to hit the fan, entire markets collapsing, currencies going to ZERO in an instant like that Squid token rug pull, the entire world of economics to get red pilled. It's not going to, because the world isn't a cartoon, but I have dreams as well.

jergul
large member Sat Nov 06 07:02:07
correcting the metric is easy. You just add stuff and remove the discount for technology improvesments if in fact new technology replaces the old.

A cell phone is a cell phone. It is inflationary if you used to pay 100 dollars for one and you are now paying 1500 dollars for one.

Still not perfect, but it is now corrected.

murder
Member Sat Nov 06 07:09:19

"A cell phone is a cell phone. It is inflationary if you used to pay 100 dollars for one and you are now paying 1500 dollars for one."

Cellphones aren't cellphones. They are primarily small internet devices. Small tablets I suppose. You can compare new smartphones with the first ones, but not your old brick phone. :o)

murder
Member Sat Nov 06 07:17:56

As far as the OP goes the guy just sounds like a windbag.

jergul
large member Sat Nov 06 08:25:17
Murder
Its just an example, but a good one. The old brick cell phones you had to lug around on a strap became vastly cheaper fast. That was deflationary. But later, cell phones became more expensive because "better". That however was not inflationary.

Nimatzo
iChihuaha Sat Nov 06 10:16:50
Jergul
Not the metric, the theory behind the metric. The solution was the doctoral thesis of Pia Malaney. It is not as trivial as you make it sound, but I am not here to argue.

jergul
large member Sat Nov 06 10:58:25
I dont understand what you mean.

http://www...415912a12d5b6642e5c2e6950f637c

Nimatzo
iChihuaha Sat Nov 06 12:01:58
Oh, I thought it was obvious from the tweet. Eric Weinstein is saying him and Pia Malaney fixed the underlying theory, that the errors in the theory afflict the metrics of inflation and CPI. You can't fix the metrics that are a product of a theory without fixing the theory first and that is not "easy" by any academic definition. Honestly, I am not sure I understand what you mean either or what you are up to here :P

Nimatzo
iChihuaha Sat Nov 06 12:26:20
Anyway it really doesn't matter I just wanted to inform those interested that this is going on. Math guy is going to one of the world most prestigious academic economy schools of the world to present their theory.

nhill
Member Sat Nov 06 12:46:36
Nimatzo

You're right. :) I kinda did a drive by there. My point was more for others, so they don't think this soundbite is some half-baked idea he had on a Bitcoin podcast, rather it's had decades of work behind it. But it looks like jergul has posted the source material.

Here's a good explanation by Weinstein himself:
http://video-archive.fields.utoronto.ca/view/1837

Lecture by Mr. Weinstein at the University of Toronto that covers a good portion of it.

nhill
Member Sat Nov 06 12:47:04
And for a less technical explanation see here:

Eric Weinstein: What Math and Physics Can Do for New Economic Thinking
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjCAsXUDvno

nhill
Member Sat Nov 06 12:49:20
Excited to see the results of his collaboration with University of Chicago academics. He's been largely ignored by the ivory tower side of academia for a couple decades, for whatever reason. Maybe it just never bubbled up to them? Anyways, this discussion should be interesting. Hope they record it. :)

nhill
Member Sat Nov 06 12:54:22
Eric Weinstein: What Math and Physics Can Do for New Economic Thinking
http://youtu.be/XjCAsXUDvno?t=237

Here's a better link, skips all the preamble.

Habebe
Member Sat Nov 06 13:10:49
"Well, maybe dont cash you stimmy check. Stomp out inflation at the source."

I actually havnt cashed mine yet:)

I should though.

jergul
large member Sat Nov 06 20:06:47
The underlying theory? I think we need to define what it is.

The theory I use is that in a well functioning capitalistic system, prices slowly increase at speeds somewhat slower than wages increase.

The problem to me is the metrics we use to measure overally price increases.

show deleted posts

Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Nov 05 18:29:45 If you have followed Eric Weinstein, you have heard him talk about this, TL:DR the people who measure inflation figures, do not know how to measure inflation, not even theoretically. Here is a good video on that: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK1mh6uvExw CHALLANGE ACCEPTED! @EricRWeinstein ANNOUNCEMENT: I head next week to @UChicago for 5 days (Nov. 8-12) at the request of its storied Department of Economics to present our theory that all of economics is based on the wrong version of the differential calculus. Importantly, this error afflicts Inflation & the CPI.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 05 21:03:22 Everyone knows inflation is measured wrong. What has the inflation rate of a Tesla share, or a house in LA been over the last 5 years?
jergul large member	Fri Nov 05 21:05:24 Point is. If you want to measure inflation, then you have to measure how much things people buy have increased in price. Pretending a standard cell phone is not actually more expensive today because it is better misses the point.
Habebe Member	Fri Nov 05 21:47:03 Yup, not to mention how special inflation isn't counted but for real for real, thats some of the most important factors. Price of gas in the last year has gone up atleast 50%, if you look at some outlier prices by much more. $3.00/gallon in the US is too costly IMHO.Were a driving nation.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 05 22:13:43 Well, maybe dont cash you stimmy check. Stomp out inflation at the source.
nhill Member	Fri Nov 05 22:28:22 This clip very much underrepresents the depth and maturity of thought Mr. Weinstein has put into Gauge Theory, but it gives you a taste. Nearly all significant economic policy is driven partly by inflation measurements which are known to be incorrect as they don't account for changing preferences. And yes, jergul, it's the biggest open secret of economics. ;) They all know it's bullshit, but as long as the Federal Reserve can form their monetary policy around a flawed measure of inflation (flawed to the downside), they can continue to pad the pockets of themselves and their friends.
nhill Member	Fri Nov 05 22:30:07 The problem is that if we had an accurate measure of inflation, people would realize that our economic policy is what it is: serving those who have already become rich. It should come as no surprise. 10% of the USA population is millionaires. If you're a US citizen and not a millionaire, you aren't even in the 90th percentile.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Nov 06 04:58:42 Nhill Thank you for the rebuke (j/k), now it would be appropriate that you give a better source :P Jergul Ok, but the point is that Eric Weinstein claims he and his wife Pia Malaney corrected the theory, in the 90's! and now one of the world's most renowned school of economics with 13 nobel laureates, in economics, has said, OK show me. I want shit to hit the fan, entire markets collapsing, currencies going to ZERO in an instant like that Squid token rug pull, the entire world of economics to get red pilled. It's not going to, because the world isn't a cartoon, but I have dreams as well.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 06 07:02:07 correcting the metric is easy. You just add stuff and remove the discount for technology improvesments if in fact new technology replaces the old. A cell phone is a cell phone. It is inflationary if you used to pay 100 dollars for one and you are now paying 1500 dollars for one. Still not perfect, but it is now corrected.
murder Member	Sat Nov 06 07:09:19 "A cell phone is a cell phone. It is inflationary if you used to pay 100 dollars for one and you are now paying 1500 dollars for one." Cellphones aren't cellphones. They are primarily small internet devices. Small tablets I suppose. You can compare new smartphones with the first ones, but not your old brick phone. :o)
murder Member	Sat Nov 06 07:17:56 As far as the OP goes the guy just sounds like a windbag.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 06 08:25:17 Murder Its just an example, but a good one. The old brick cell phones you had to lug around on a strap became vastly cheaper fast. That was deflationary. But later, cell phones became more expensive because "better". That however was not inflationary.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Nov 06 10:16:50 Jergul Not the metric, the theory behind the metric. The solution was the doctoral thesis of Pia Malaney. It is not as trivial as you make it sound, but I am not here to argue.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 06 10:58:25 I dont understand what you mean. http://www...415912a12d5b6642e5c2e6950f637c
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Nov 06 12:01:58 Oh, I thought it was obvious from the tweet. Eric Weinstein is saying him and Pia Malaney fixed the underlying theory, that the errors in the theory afflict the metrics of inflation and CPI. You can't fix the metrics that are a product of a theory without fixing the theory first and that is not "easy" by any academic definition. Honestly, I am not sure I understand what you mean either or what you are up to here :P
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Nov 06 12:26:20 Anyway it really doesn't matter I just wanted to inform those interested that this is going on. Math guy is going to one of the world most prestigious academic economy schools of the world to present their theory.
nhill Member	Sat Nov 06 12:46:36 Nimatzo You're right. :) I kinda did a drive by there. My point was more for others, so they don't think this soundbite is some half-baked idea he had on a Bitcoin podcast, rather it's had decades of work behind it. But it looks like jergul has posted the source material. Here's a good explanation by Weinstein himself: http://video-archive.fields.utoronto.ca/view/1837 Lecture by Mr. Weinstein at the University of Toronto that covers a good portion of it.
nhill Member	Sat Nov 06 12:47:04 And for a less technical explanation see here: Eric Weinstein: What Math and Physics Can Do for New Economic Thinking http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjCAsXUDvno
nhill Member	Sat Nov 06 12:49:20 Excited to see the results of his collaboration with University of Chicago academics. He's been largely ignored by the ivory tower side of academia for a couple decades, for whatever reason. Maybe it just never bubbled up to them? Anyways, this discussion should be interesting. Hope they record it. :)
nhill Member	Sat Nov 06 12:54:22 Eric Weinstein: What Math and Physics Can Do for New Economic Thinking http://youtu.be/XjCAsXUDvno?t=237 Here's a better link, skips all the preamble.
Habebe Member	Sat Nov 06 13:10:49 "Well, maybe dont cash you stimmy check. Stomp out inflation at the source." I actually havnt cashed mine yet:) I should though.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 06 20:06:47 The underlying theory? I think we need to define what it is. The theory I use is that in a well functioning capitalistic system, prices slowly increase at speeds somewhat slower than wages increase. The problem to me is the metrics we use to measure overally price increases.
	show deleted posts

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