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Utopia Talk / Politics / Seb still wrong
Dakyron
Member
Mon Jul 06 12:41:24
Arizona had ~3,300 new cases of COVID-19 today and has seen the case count double in the last 4 weeks.

1 new death reported today. One. ICU bed usage dropped. Overall hospital bed usage dropped. Plenty of ventilators available.

Explanation? 73% of deaths are still from people over 65. Most new cases are under 45. IFR continues dropping and is now well under 2%, even with most cases still going untested and unreported.

I went out to eat over the holiday weekend, dined in, and I didn't die!

Basically, if you take reasonable precautions(mask when indoors, social distance when possible, don't do stupid shit like hug strangers, and maintain good personal hygiene), you are very, very, very unlikely to die from COVID-19.
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 06 13:22:29
Central estimate for IFR I have was 1%.

Most new cases are young - how long before they infect their elders?

The precautions don't stop you dying, they stop you catching the bug.

The massive spike shows your measures are not effective.
sam adams
Member
Mon Jul 06 13:36:24
Seb whines about arizona opening up.

Also seb:

http://www...n-pubs-night-bar-closures.html

Social distancing becomes social drinking: Police are forced to SHUT DOWN swathe of northeast London as hundreds flock to illegal raves - after weekend of partying in pubs, bars and parks across the UK



Lol massive hypocrisy
Rugian
Member
Mon Jul 06 13:41:29
There was another thread around here somewhere where Seb was complaining about how people going to restaurants were causing case spikes.

So what do you propose we do instead, shutter the entire restaurant industry doe 1-2 years until we find a cure? Pretty much everyone in that sector will be bankrupt by then.

Focusing exclusively on case counts and ignoring the wider social and economic impacts of lockdowns is myopic. The UK seems to have recognized that much as well since your pubs are now reopening.

Pandemic or no pandemic, you cant ask people to just sit in their flats for the next year.
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 06 13:44:36
Sam:

Yeah, I think I've been telling you got a while the UK govt is irretrievably retarded on this point and is very close to the US policy on this.

I'm not sure why that's not penetrating your dense skull. Callouses from being dropped by your mother too frequently when an infant?
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 06 13:46:23
Rugian:

Deliveries and take away.

Several UK restaurant chains have conveyed to selling meal kits.
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 06 13:47:20
"Pandemic or no pandemic, you cant ask people to just sit in their flats for the next year."

Oh look, it's a field full of tiny human effigies, all made from dried grass stems.
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 06 13:49:08
If the UK waited three more weeks, the diseases would have been essentially eliminated. If we'd shut down when France did, we would be like Germany.

If the US has had a national scale coordinated policy, it could have been like Germany, and the disease would be all but eliminated.

sam adams
Member
Mon Jul 06 13:56:11
"If the UK waited three more weeks, the diseases would have been essentially eliminated."

Rofl.

30
Rugian
Member
Mon Jul 06 14:06:01
Seb

US unemployment in the food service and drinking places sector went from 8% in March to 35% in April. And those places that did retain staff were certainly doing less business, including (importantly) on the alcohol sales front. To say nothing about reduced tips.

Delivery and take out services are a bandage to slow down the bleeding caused by shutting down in-restaurant dining. They are by no means an effective substitute - particularly if you're talking about maintaining restrictions for more than a few months.

You want people to stay shut in for up to two years. That's just insane. At some point, we need to just accept the risks as a cost of living life.
Rugian
Member
Mon Jul 06 14:07:54
I know someone who's a chef at a high-end steakhouse. Hes been furloughed since March, because management did the math and realized that it wasn't worth the effort to do take out/delivery only. The profit margins just arent there for a lot of places.
Dakyron
Member
Mon Jul 06 14:16:56
"If the UK waited three more weeks, the diseases would have been essentially eliminated. If we'd shut down when France did, we would be like Germany. "

Now... is this 3, 11, or 19 weeks?

You have been pushing the 3 more weeks idea since the middle of May. So its fair to ask how long, in total(from beginning to end), you suggest people stay in lockdown.

March 15 - now, would be 19 weeks. A hell of a long time to sit by yourself.

It is also fair to point out that lockdowns have to eventually end, and when they do, the virus has spread. So unless you can reduce the number of cases to zero(impossible), what is the point to continuing to wait?

"The precautions don't stop you dying, they stop you catching the bug."

No. They stop you from spreading the bug.

"The massive spike shows your measures are not effective. "

1 new death from COVID-19 reported. We are averaging 4 deaths per day the last 5 days. Hospital bed usage and ICU bed usage have leveled off and even declined. # of new hospitalizations have been steadily declining since mid-June. While case numbers look bad, all other trends are good.

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

Look at the chart. There is a very clear downward trajectory for COVID-19 deaths. The case spike gets pointed out, but the reality is that more testing is available and more people are getting tested. Often, new cases are mild or asymptomatic.


So... in effect... you are wrong. You often lie and mischaracterize information in order to try to overstate the danger of COVID, and you change your opinion often to suit whatever argument you are trying to make.
sam adams
Member
Mon Jul 06 14:18:27
Who needs jobs in sebs communist utopia? We will all just eat our meagre rice rations and blog about social justice poetry.
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 06 15:23:36
Rugian:

Yes, but that's mostly because you've got shit furlough policies. Other countries have avoided this scale of redundancy.

Dakyron:

If you can't count, it's really not worth trying to explain to you :-).
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 06 15:30:17
"It is also fair to point out that lockdowns have to eventually end, and when they do, the virus has spread"

Not really. If you wait until the daily new cases are at a certain level, you can track, trace and contain. So actually you don't need to have the virus spread.

"No. They stop you from spreading the bug."
Distinction without a difference: for someone to catch the bug, you need someone to spread out, and by definition you haven't spread the bug until someone's caught it from you. Either way, you seem to now agree, the measures don't reduce lethality of the bug, just the transmission, and as we can see from the data, you've been very ineffective at that. The only reason mortality is lower is because the note vulnerable groups, so far, aren't exposing themselves.

But it seems unlikely that can hold forever.

"So unless you can reduce the number of cases to zero(impossible), what is the point to continuing to wait?"

You can essentially reduce the virus to the point it's no longer freely circulating even after opening up. Several countries have managed that.


Sam:

Again, not really sure why you are convinced everyone's eating rice.

But I'll bet your economy takes a bigger hit than Germanys in the medium term.
Rugian
Member
Mon Jul 06 15:54:09
Seb

You cant keep furloughed workers on the government till indefinitely. Austerity bought you some breathing room but not that much.
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 06 16:16:31
You don't need to keep them indefinitely.

You just need to use lockdown to get infection rates down to a level track and trace can handle.

Which other countries have done.

My bet is the ones that locked down early and/or stayed locked down until the new cases were at a suitably low level will have a strong economic rebound. Those that did not, will have a much greater economic impact. And in five years we will see if the few weeks of earlier opening were worth it.

Dakyron
Member
Mon Jul 06 17:47:50
New York is still refusing to open many businesses and they have been locked down since early March. How long does it take?



Dakyron
Member
Mon Jul 06 18:01:16
Average age of COVID-19 patients has dropped 15 years, with many new cases asymptomatic.

What does this really mean? That US wasn't testing asymptomatic 25 year olds months ago. That is all.

kargen
Member
Mon Jul 06 18:17:36
Oxford has done a study that indicates while passing on the virus through the air is very possible most cases of transmission are happening because of failure to wash hands. Having people touch eating utensils before you use them, opening doors then not washing hands, pumping gas then not washing hands, using a pen to sign credit card receipt and more things like that.
My sister has been sanitizing plastic bags she gets with her groceries and slipping those over her hand when she opens doors and things like that when she has to go out and about. I thought she was being overly careful but for where she lives looks like it was a good idea.

Things could open back up if people were willing to be more careful. I doubt that is going to happen though.
Wrath of Orion
Member
Mon Jul 06 18:51:13
That study is contrary to plenty of other evidence out there. All it means is that we still don't know much about this virus.

"Things could open back up if people were willing to be more careful."

Regardless of the primary mode of transmission, this is correct.
Seb
Member
Tue Jul 07 02:52:07
Dakyron:

The problem is you haven't ever really started as you seem to insist on pretending the virus respects state boundaries.
Dukhat
Member
Tue Jul 07 02:59:24
Still not enough testing. Bad data is bad data. Flu-related deaths have massively spiked up in many states, especially red states.

Can't make a real argument unless you have real facts but in the age of Trump, everyone has gotten use to arguing over fake news and misconceptions.
jergul
large member
Tue Jul 07 04:31:51
I am still worried enough about covid-19 to make sure my family is on vitamin D supplements and have done a hell of a lot more skiing, then hiking than I normally would.

Hiking to the point where I have trained my cat(!) to obey sleding commands (Gee-Haw-Mush). I don't know the sleding command for "Get down from the fucking tree", so just use normal Norwegian for that.

Cardio is probably important. No vitamin D deficiency is probably important. Resting HR down 8 since march.
jergul
large member
Tue Jul 07 04:33:52
Point is. I think Seb is probably right. I am not that fond of hiking, so am literally betting on him being right by doing way more stuff than I otherwise would be prone to do.
jergul
large member
Tue Jul 07 06:33:52
Seb
I see you have a "Green homes" initiative going.

A shame you don't want to use reversible heat pump technology (with a COP of around 3) for that.

Essence
Increase air turnover in any residence while decreasing heating or cooling costs by 67% compared to heating or cooling the residence without airing, and by close to 80% assuming the dwelling is aired out daily.

Expected effects: People not dying or inflicting the NHS with horrendous costs.

Because covid-19 and other airborne issues where exposure loads increase severity.

Its expensive to be poor.
Pillz
Member
Tue Jul 07 10:28:41
Seb and cuckhat will probably both lose their jobs working from home, as their bosses notice they bring nothing of value to the enterprise as they're works always thoroughly flawed
Seb
Member
Tue Jul 07 10:42:32
Just got immediately pulled onto a new assignment after finishing up the brexit job organising part of the UK mass flu and covid vaccination program. Apparently the UK govt thinks we might have the Oxford vaccine by October and the Imperial one by January next year. Not really sure why they think that, but hey ho.

So I'm not really worried about losing my job, but thanks for the concern.
sam adams
Member
Tue Jul 07 11:27:21
Lol no wonder the UK is so poor and has such shitty covid response.
Seb
Member
Tue Jul 07 11:39:55
Sam there, displaying the firm grasp of causality that one would expect from his previously rigorous arguments.
sam adams
Member
Tue Jul 07 12:41:04
^the type of bureaucrat one would expect to find in a place that is falling further and further behind... Alabama.
Dakyron
Member
Tue Jul 07 12:54:34
Hospital bed use down to 82% as of this morning. ICU staying relatively flat at 90%.

Deaths were up, but it was a revision using death certificate matching.

Seb is organizing BREXIT? Now wonder its taken them years and they still don't know what is going on.
Seb
Member
Tue Jul 07 12:59:54
Dakyron:

Brexit is a shit show. Ministers just don't want to take policy decisions.
Dakyron
Member
Tue Jul 07 13:01:27
I think the idea is to wear down the public until they eventually don't care anymore and you can rejoin EU, if you ever actually left. I know I stopped following the Brexit saga long ago so I'm not sure if anything ever actually happened.
sam adams
Member
Tue Jul 07 14:31:27
By that time the united cuckdom will be poorer than all us states by so much i will have to move on to making fun of you for being poorer than US colonies...


Lets see... you are only 25% richer than Puerto Rico now. Under your current bureaucratic reign of incompetence, i think you can pull it off. We have faith in you seb.
Seb
Member
Tue Jul 07 15:53:16
Dakyron:

No, not at all.

We left the EU at the end of January. That's irrevocable now. To rejoin we would need to reapply and the French would certainly veto it if we did. They never wanted us in in the first place, feeling our objectives for the EU were counter to theirs (which they were, and we were enormously successful in securing our objectives at their expense).

We are well and truly out now. In terms of rejoining, why would they ever let us? If we asked it would indicate we desired a closer trading relationship, so why would they make the concession of being full members rather than something like the EEA, following their rules but no say?

My observation would be that the current govt are vastly more effective than May's govt in operational delivery. Actual delivery of plans for "no deal" until may left were shambolic and highly delayed.

The XO/XS cabinet subcommittee structure was incredibly effective at driving operational delivery.

However, as we moved past the "no- deal" threshold and a bunch of senior civil servants ejected for being insufficiently "pro brexit", problems began to become apparent.

Firstly, the govt decided that we should impose full reciprocal controls on inbound goods from Europe. The problem is we don't have the facilities to do so. A huge volume of goods arrive from Europe via roll on roll off ferries at Dover, which are situated at the foot of a giant cliff, and there simply isn't space to build the necessary truck bays for customs, animal health and phytosanitary checks. On top of that, most of the officially certified vets that conduct phytosanitary tests are actually Europeans and have lost the right to work here as we don't recognise their qualifications and they are largely returning to the EU. There wasn't time to train new ones, nor time to train the 6000 additional customs officer needed to process the paperwork.

Nor for that matter were the existing customs agents and intermediaries that companies pay to do export and import declarations on their behalf willing to invest heavily to train 50k new agents. Nor great incentive: if demand massively outstrips supply, they can just charge a fortune. And as agents need to effectively take a degree of liability, they are very hesitant to take on new customers who they've never worked with before, they'd rather just expand moderately to cater for a greater demand from existing clients, of whom they can charge more anyway.

Then for Northern Ireland / north west a fuckload more infrastructure was needed for the protocol.

Ministers basically delayed decisions needed in December to enact proposed mechanisms and policies to address this, then covid hit and everything slid down the agenda.

When I left, they were getting around to agreeing how to award grants to North West ports for upgrades to meet the northern Ireland protocol and deciding whether to issue fresh grants for customs forms, official vets and purchasing of sites, while also agreeing to abandon reciprocal checks on inbound goods from the EU and how to mitigate WTO challenges for discriminatory behaviour to EU trade.

All of those options were on the table for ministers to decide last year.

5 months to go.

Tick tock.



Seb
Member
Tue Jul 07 15:55:39
Sam:

Yes, well this is what happens when you elect Sams who hates migrants more than than anything else.

Sadly, civil servants and consultants can only advise.

Still, I'll do very well out of it, even if the Sams that make the decisions are intent on driving us into the ground.
sam adams
Member
Tue Jul 07 16:59:19
"Yes, well this is what happens when you elect Sams who hates migrants more than than anything else."


Yes seb, that must be your problem. Pats seb on the head. Good try at thinking. Better luck next time.
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