Welcome to the Utopia Forums! Register a new account
The current time is Tue Aug 04 18:28:19 2020

Utopia Talk / Politics / Herd immunity 4
Seb
Member
Sat Jul 04 12:58:17
http://twi...tatus/1278766321610735620?s=19

Yup. Definitely the BLM protests.

Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 04 13:08:51
How many protestors have tested negative?

The only people ive heard about being tested from.the protests we're, who were testing positive.
Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 04 13:13:03
Without even a ballpark figure of the protestors and how many have been tested with the results of how many tested positive/negative.
Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 04 13:19:43
Of course we will not get that data because there is intent to hide such data
.... Hmmm I wonder why?


http://www...rge-floyd-protest-2020-6%3famp
Seb
Member
Sat Jul 04 13:30:42
""We've begun doing—almost very similar to our COVID [work] — it's contact tracing," Minnesota Public Safety Commissioner John Harrington said on May 30, just five days after Floyd was killed. "Who are they associated with? What platforms are they advocating for? ... Is this organized crime? ... We are in the process right now of building that information network."

Your article says clearly why. When people think the information is going to be used to target you for political harassment, then you won't call the helpline.
Rugian
Member
Sat Jul 04 13:40:00
Yes, because if there's one group that's going to be targeted for political harassment in New York State, it's BLM protestors.

I'd buy that argument more if we were talking about people who attended an anti-lockdown rally.
Pillz
Member
Sat Jul 04 13:41:54
In Seb world, 20 yo white college Starbuck revolutionaries don't use credit cards or eat out...
Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 04 13:54:23


HOMEPAGE
NYC's contact tracers have been told not to ask people if they've attended a protest
Isaac Scher
Jun 15, 2020, 4:25 PM

george floyd protest nyc
Protesters gather in Harlem to protest the recent death of George Floyd on May 30, 2020 in New York City. David 'Dee' Delgado/Getty Images
New York City contact tracers have been instructed not to ask New Yorkers if they've attended any protests, The City reported.
"If a person wants to proactively offer that information, there is an opportunity for them to do so," a spokesperson for Mayor Bill de Blasio said.
The policy marks a balanced approach between public health and respecting public outrage about police violence against Black Americans.
Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
Ad

New York's team of contact-tracers, who are trying to discern exposures to the coronavirus and stem another break-out, have been instructed not to ask individuals if they attended a protest.

"No person will be asked proactively if they attended a protest," Avery Cohen, a spokesperson for Mayor Bill de Blasio, told The City. "If a person wants to proactively offer that information, there is an opportunity for them to do so."

Contact tracers track the spread of the coronavirus — connections and potential exposures — "without revealing the identity of the case," Dr. Alain Labrique, an epidemiologist and founding director of the Global mHealth Initiative at Johns Hopkins University, told Mashable.

But as anti-racist protests erupted around the country in late May, after Minneapolis police killed Black man George Floyd, some public officials were using the phrase "contact-tracing" to refer, somewhat obliquely, to police surveillance.


"We've begun doing—almost very similar to our COVID [work] — it's contact tracing," Minnesota Public Safety Commissioner John Harrington said on May 30, just five days after Floyd was killed. "Who are they associated with? What platforms are they advocating for? ... Is this organized crime? ... We are in the process right now of building that information network."

Harrington's announcement wrought concern among protesters, privacy advocates, and health experts, who said he was misleading the public.

"Law enforcement strategies, where they are trying to track people down that are concerning to them, that is not contact tracing," David C. Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors, told Slate.

It is unclear whether anti-racist protests have contributed to a new wave of infections.

"That's the one variable in this equation that we're not sure of," Gov. Andrew Cuomo said in a press conference last week.

City and state officials appear to be striking a fine balance between making pandemic-related assessments, on the one hand, and supporting protests against racism and police violence, on the other.

"Naturally, we have not been able to obtain all information from all positive cases, but engagement among those reached is high," Cohen said.

On June 8, daily cases hit an all-time low, at just 2% of the city population.

Days later, on June 11, de Blasio said the three-day moving average for new cases rose one point to 3% — suggesting that mass protests are not leading to large outbreaks.


______The above is the previous link in full.
Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 04 14:00:17
Seb, Even if I were to accwpt that excuse at face value, which I do not.

You can't claim the protests didnt spike covid cases while going out of your way to not collect data on it.

Again Im not claiming that the protests are the number one cause, or that they are any worse nor better than any other large gathering in an uncontrolled environment.

What I am saying is that I think its likely that they were A large cause in the spread of the virus. Just like.the political rallies to come.
Hrothgar
Member
Sat Jul 04 16:19:22
The picture is becoming pretty clear - and it has always made sense with evidence of past respiratory viruses - that it's much less contagious outdoors. The free movement of air and sheer volume of air moving and dispersing breath makes sense. That doesn't mean it's not contagious at all outdoors, but it's much less so.

The true super spreader events are going to be large gatherings indoors. Churches, indoor concerts, busy stores, restaurants/bars, large indoor house parties, etc...
Hrothgar
Member
Sat Jul 04 16:21:09
http://med...nfluenza-pandemic-509151dc8065
Seb
Member
Sat Jul 04 16:56:43
Habebe:

You are rather ignoring the evidence that shows:
1. The size of spikes do not correlate with the protests at a state level
2. The size of spikes do not correlate with the protests at a city level
3. Other studies showing the spikes do correlate with eating out
4. Contrary to Pillz strange belief, BLM protesters aren't likely to correspond to the bulk of card present restaurant purchases.
5. Outdoor gatherings are unlikely to be as bad a spreading effect as indoor events.


What additional information are you thinking you will find from contact tracing? It would show maybe some people caught the disease at BLM protests. But statistically we can see that such transmission doesn't explain the macro level patterns. The BLM didn't cause the second spike, early and loose lockdown did.

Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 04 18:11:16
"1. The size of spikes do not correlate with the protests at a state level"

Kind of a mixed bag really. Every state that has a large spike also had large protests, my current home state for example.

That does not mean other factors have not also played a large role.

IE: If a state had 3 large protests of 50k each AND also had 8 large non protest gatherings of at least 30k each the other large gatherings likely caused more spread than the protests. That does not give the protests magical immunity powers.

Also the states with the largest spikes also had very few cases earlier, which will.do two.things.

1. If you go from 50 cases.to 1000 that is a large.spike. do.the total.numbers factor in to these.spikes?

2. Less people.to have immunity.

"2. The size of spikes do not correlate with the protests at a city level"

Another possible mixed bag, during the protests many other people.stayed inside even more than usual, possibly negating the protest spread.

I agree the outdoor events seem to have the air exchange going for them. I personally don't know how That compares with the fact that most outdoor events offer much more physical distance from each other than the protests.


"What additional information are you thinking you will find from contact tracing?"

The same info we get from ALL contact tracing. For example locally in Myrtle Beach 30 some.people had a beach party. Recently. They then all.tested positive for.covid.

The conclusion? Since that was the one.common factor in where theu were, he chances are high most of them got it there.

We have intentionally limited data.

If.for.example you could not ask.some one who was being tested If They have been to a Trump rally lately, you can not go and say that " look data says it probably wasnt there" when the evidence is intentionally hidden.
Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 04 18:17:58
Anyway to sum up my points.

1. Do we have any control states?

2. Im not saying the protests caused huge spikes definitively.

Im saying the evidence afaik doesn't seem to exist to say one way or the other, but it was a high risk behavior.
show deleted posts

Your Name:
Your Password:
Your Message:
Bookmark and Share