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Utopia Talk / Politics / We need to accelerate global warming
Average Ameriacn
Member
Sun Aug 05 05:45:38
That's why Trump is pushing coal! Do you dumb librals get it now? It will bring final victory against China!!!!

http://www...ninhabitable-by-end-of-century



Unsurvivable heatwaves could strike heart of China by end of century

The most populous region of the biggest polluter on Earth – China’s northern plain – will become uninhabitable in places if climate change is not curbed


Tue 31 Jul 2018 16.28 BST
First published on Tue 31 Jul 2018 16.21 BST





The deadliest place on the planet for extreme future heatwaves will be the north China plain, one of the most densely populated regions in the world and the most important food-producing area in the huge nation.

New scientific research shows that humid heatwaves that kill even healthy people within hours will strike the area repeatedly towards the end of the century thanks to climate change, unless there are heavy cuts in carbon emissions.

“This spot is going to be the hottest spot for deadly heatwaves in the future,” said Prof Elfatih Eltahir, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, US, who led the new study. The projections for China’s northern plain are particularly worrying because many of the region’s 400 million people are farmers and have little alternative to working outside.



“China is currently the largest contributor to the emissions of greenhouse gases, with potentially serious implications to its own population,” he said. “Continuation of current global emissions may limit the habitability of the most populous region of the most populous country on Earth.”

The new analysis assesses the impact of climate change on the deadly combination of heat and humidity, which is measured as the “wet bulb” temperature (WBT). Once the WBT reaches 35C, the air is so hot and humid that the human body cannot cool itself by sweating and even fit people sitting in the shade die within six hours.

A WBT above 31C is classed by the US National Weather Service as “extreme danger”, with its warning stating: “If you don’t take precautions immediately, you may become seriously ill or even die.”



The research, published in the journal Nature Communications, found fatal WBTs of 35C would strike the north China plain repeatedly between 2070 and 2100, unless carbon emissions are cut. Shanghai, for example, would exceed the fatal threshold about five times and the “extreme danger” WBTs would occur hundreds of times. Even if significant carbon cuts are made, the “extreme danger” WBT would be exceeded many times.




Previous research by Eltahir and colleagues showed that the Gulf in the Middle East, the heartland of the global oil industry, will also suffer heatwaves beyond the limit of human survival if climate change is unchecked, particularly Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and coastal cities in Iran. The fatal 35C WBT was almost reached in Bandar Mahshahr in Iran in July 2015, where 46C heat combined with 50% humidity.


The scientists also analysed south Asia in 2017 and found it too is at risk of killer 35C WBT heatwaves in places. Even outside the extreme hotspots, three-quarters of the 1.7bn population – particularly those farming in the Ganges and Indus valleys – would be exposed to “extreme danger” levels of humid heat towards the end of the century.

But China’s northern plain is set to be the worst place, said Eltahir: “The response [to climate change] is significantly larger than in the other two regions.” Signs of that future have already begun, with the study finding a substantial increase in extreme heatwaves on the plain in the past 50 years. In 2013, a severe heatwave in the region persisted for 50 days during which Shanghai broke a 141-year temperature record.

Prof Chris Huntingford, at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology and not involved in the study, said: “The research finds that if greenhouse emissions continue at current levels, there will be many more days when unsafe thresholds are crossed. This will make work outdoors almost impossible across much of the agricultural regions of China.”



“Work like this is especially useful, as it allows governments to plan better future agricultural practices, including what is needed to support farmers to operate safely and thus ensure food security,” he said.

The most extreme temperatures in all the analyses were found in the Gulf, but those occurred over the sea. In the case of the north China plain, Eltahir said: “This is where people live.”

Climate change is the key driver, but the massive irrigation used on crops on the north China plain was found to be significant too, adding about 0.5C to the high WBTs. This is because the evaporation of irrigation water leads to higher humidity and because water vapour is itself a powerful greenhouse gas.

The scientists did the analysis by running detailed computer climate models for the past 30 years on the north China plain. Those models that closely replicated the actual measurements were then used to project the climate of the region from 2070-2100 for different levels of carbon emissions.

Even with cuts in greenhouse gases, Eltahir said public health measures would be needed in China, such as air-conditioned shelters and education of the population about the dangers of extreme heat.
The Children
Member
Sun Aug 05 05:55:38
and if yellow stone erupts, the whole of da usa wunt even last 1 hour...let alone 2 da next century.

another bullshitos fuzzy studiez
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Aug 06 13:15:42

"Unsurvivable heatwaves could strike heart of China by end of century "

Ya, no.

Not even the persian gulf, by far the highest enthalpy region on earth, will hit that mark by 2100 though it is close.
rlver of blood
Member
Mon Aug 06 13:16:41
Shithole implosion imminent. j
Forwyn
Member
Mon Aug 06 14:28:22
^got excited for a second
Seb
Member
Mon Aug 06 17:16:22
Wet bulb temp of 34c was reached in the gulf in 2015.

You only need 35c wet bulb for 10 hours to be non survivable.

The thing about shifting a mean of e.g. a Gaussian is that in the tail, extreme events become orders of magnitude more frequent.
Rugian
Member
Mon Aug 06 20:09:51
I don't know what 34c means. And until that's converted into sensible units of measurement, I refuse to care.
Rugian
Member
Mon Aug 06 20:12:36
Also, good on the US edition of The Guardian to be measuring things in Celsius. I hope Google drives that rag publication into bankruptcy.
McKobb
Member
Mon Aug 06 20:44:04
Hell, that's below freezing!
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Aug 06 21:12:52
"Wet bulb temp of 34c was reached in the gulf in 2015."

Even higher wetbulbs have supposedly been recorded there, but only briefly. Theres a big difference between hitting a temp and sustaining a temp.

I dont think there will be prolonged events above 35c at all until at least 2100 or so. Even then, surviving such an event will be as simple as retreating into a basement or other underground area, even without ac. The local weather service will issue a humidity warning or something like that and everything will shut down for the day, much like blizzards in boston and chicago.

This is a quite trivial issue unless we warm the planet for multiple more centuries.
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Mon Aug 06 22:05:15

Makes sense.

Seb
Member
Tue Aug 07 03:09:44
Sam:

Your assuming then that survival hinges on infrastructure that does not yet exist though.

It's one thing that Boston and Chicago have grown to have populations the climate couldn't otherwise sustain.

It's another to take somewhere with a large existing population and then have to retrofit it with the infrastructure needed to survive.

Migration is likely cheaper than everyone digging basements they don't presently have and the govt making heat shelters for municipal areas.

Let's face it, even in the developed world politics struggle to deliver public goods for infrequent events.

Sam Adams
Member
Tue Aug 07 08:59:15
"Migration is likely cheaper than everyone digging basements they don't presently have and the govt making heat shelters for municipal areas."

What? Did you just say abandoning an area and moving is cheaper than digging a small hole or turning on the ac? Rofl. Im going to give you a chance to retract that before ridiculing you further.
Seb
Member
Tue Aug 07 09:28:28
Sam:

Remind me what happened in the 1930a dust bowl years in the US again?

Think about supply and demand. You suddenly have a huge demand for digging holes in the ground - you need to own the land, you need to structurally re-enforce the building on top of the land (or demolish and rebuild). So it's not "how much to dig a hole", people who can put in a basement for you are in high demand and cost a lot of money.

If you don't have electricity/sufficient capacity, you need that to be laid and installed - ahead of time.

And then you have sudden needs for air-con - what's the production and supply? Again, if it all comes in a rush, it's very expensive.

Does the economic activity sustained in that area cover these investment costs? and increased opex costs?

If the area right now is predominantly people driven agriculture, does that support the investment and opex while still being viable?

And if it's cattle farming, that's fucked if you get once ever two or three year heatwaves that wipe out any animals not in a climate controlled shed.

Sure, if this is a metropolitan area with a certain level of GDP it's a minor overhead and, with planned and coordinated investment, that will happen.

On the other hand, if not, it's much like Florida and hurricanes - the costs will be incurred only as and when disaster materialised and people will not necessarily do that upfront.

And when you try to adapt overnight without that kind of plan, what happens is everyone ups sticks and gets out of dodge.

Particularly if their existing assets plummet in value or are destroyed - which might well be the case if the regions economy is agricultural.

So yes, absolutely, that can be an issue. You have to be quite stupid to think otherwise.

Sam Adams
Member
Tue Aug 07 10:03:02
"You suddenly have a huge demand for digging holes in the ground "

No. You have ~100 years. Most of the buildings that will exist then are not even built yet!

"And if it's cattle farming"

Then switch to something more heat tolerant.

Over 100 years, trivial.
Pillz
Member
Tue Aug 07 10:09:09
Camel meat to replace beef?
Seb
Member
Tue Aug 07 10:55:47
Sam:

How many oecd countries invest properly ahead of time?

If you started demanding e.g. all new houses in hurricane areas in the US are built to float on piles, you know damn well that the reg would never pass. Nobody wants to pay costs and maintenance now for a contingent liability in a decade, let alone a century. Given the mitigation costs to keep us to limited rises are a tiny percentage of GDP but we're effectively blocked, you are kidding yourself.

It'll be migration. As it has been in the US and everywhere.



Sam Adams
Member
Tue Aug 07 11:42:50
"If you started demanding e.g. all new houses in hurricane areas in the US are built to float on piles, you know damn well that the reg would never pass."

Wtf are you talking about. There are all kinds of anti hurricane building codes in certain areas of the US. Earthquake and tornado mitigation requirements in many others.

You have no clue whatsoever what you are talking about. A little bit of future planning is both common and trivial.
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Aug 07 11:46:51
And no, removing fossil fuels before renewables and or fusion is ready, is neither a cheap nor sane mitigation plan.
Pillz
Member
Tue Aug 07 11:48:16
Forget the fact that rebuilding natural-disaster stricken homes in the US is a multi billion dollar shame industry...
Pillz
Member
Tue Aug 07 11:50:22
In what way are hurricanes comparable to the prospect of unsurvivable heat? And why aren't people migrating away from hurricanes?
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Aug 07 12:01:50
Yup. And adapting the persian gulf to isolated heatwaves would be even cheaper than changing or fixing florida.

Isolated blizzards in northern locations are the best comparison. A day or two of lost productivity with very little structural damage. It happens and its no big deal.
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Aug 07 12:05:02
And think of it this way. Extreme temps are a great way to cleanse cities of homeless people. Win win.
Seb
Member
Tue Aug 07 13:47:40
Sam Adams:

Minor revisions for frequent events - yes.

But major revisions decades prior to an event?

You are joking right?

It took the SF earthquake with it's mass casualties to trigger adequate building codes there.

And then look at maintenance of the levees ahead of Katrina.

So let's say we tried, right now, on the basis of a model to change building codes to insist that all hones on Florida coastal regions have to float on piles in anticipation of more frequent flooding events in a few decades time, all the little Sam's would crop up and say "ignore the models" and all the little Hot Rods would say it's socialist meddling and unnecessary costs, and it would not happen until after a catastrophe.

So sure, an urban environment will easily sustain the overheads (after the first event kills thousands).

But that's very different in a more rural environment.

And predictably, here you are saying "nah, no problem in China, only in the gulf", so if you were in charge of building codes where this is being predicted...


Sam Adams
Member
Tue Aug 07 16:24:40

"It took the SF earthquake with it's mass casualties to trigger adequate building codes there."

But now all competent developed cities in earthquake terrain have earthquake building codes, even though they were not personally hit. We live in the information age seb, people share data, and you have no clue what you are talking about.

This enthalpy issue is trivial even in the worst place on earth for it, at least for centuries.


"
And then look at maintenance of the levees ahead of Katrina."

The retards built a city below sea level, didnt build or maintain good enough flood protection, and then didnt evacuate. Natural selection.

"so if you were in charge of building codes where this is being predicted"

I would pay some western expert like sam to examine the data(which indeed is my job lol) instead of getting my info from some asswipe that knows nothing. Every time some retard like you cries wolf, it makes more people ignore future warnings.

Dont scream unless you need to.
Seb
Member
Wed Aug 08 02:08:39
Sam:

"Now." I.e. after the fact.

QED.

"The retards built their homes and didn't build them to survive a phenomenon that didn't exist (and Sam assured them wouldn't happen) ..."

The people "screaming" (a hitherto unknown yseage of this verb to mean "publishing a scientific article in a prestigious journal) are an MIT based research group.

Yes, you are definitely more credible than an MIT research group who've spent god know how long producing the study cited, you can dismiss it out if hand and everyone would be daft to disbelieve you. You can't rearrange algebra judging by your performance here.

Shanghai will be fine. Rural areas in North east china, less so.
werewolf dictator
Member
Wed Aug 08 03:00:19
using nothing but fossil fuels provides nothing but benefits to ~2050.. for plant growth and temperature related deaths

projecting to 2100.. the entire earth’s mass will have been converted to computronium
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Aug 08 09:32:16
"and Sam assured them wouldn't happen"

If or when it gets closer to actually occuring, and we are very far away now, the appropriate warnings will be issued.

That is how it works dumbseb.


"Yes, you are definitely more credible than an MIT research group "

Yup i am. Thats why they pay me what they pay me. Because i am the best. Beating a couple no names who had their shoddy modeling study shunned from proper atmo phys journals is of course, easy. Like most modeling studies quoted temp rise is too high, and even more retarded in this study is they consider a brief 35c tw encounter to be fatal when even you know it takes a prolonged exposure.

And of course theres the trivial basement trick even if it were to happen. But you think its easier to abandon fertile farmland rather than dig a basement, so lets just say you are an utter retard and end it there.
Seb
Member
Wed Aug 08 15:51:56
Sam:

Yes. Like new Orleans, like with San Francisco before the big one.

Nature is "shunned". Lol.

You may be the best they could afford. The best aren't motivated by money though. Let's face it, like the ML geeks at Google, you aren't getting paid to do the interesting stuff. The really smart people get pretty well paid (from a range of sources) and hold tenure.




Wrath of Orion
Member
Wed Aug 08 15:54:55
"The really smart people get pretty well paid (from a range of sources) and hold tenure."

*Picard facepalm*
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Aug 08 16:10:39
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Sam Adams
Member
Wed Aug 08 16:32:22
Here are the hard numbers based on the actual wx histories at major chinese airports:

Degrees c of warming required to drive current observed record wetbulbs to fatal levels in which case even healthy inactive humans would need to retreat to basements, largish bodies of water or turn on AC:

Shanghai 8
Beijing 7
Wuhan 6
Guangzhou 9
Nanjing 6
Hong kong 10
Taipei 6

Obviously not happening in 100 years.

Sebpwnt.

Sam Adams
Member
Wed Aug 08 16:38:54
Meanwhile abu dhabi bahrain kuwait city and friends are all 3 to 4 degrees short and in a bad case warming scenario would need to implement isolated 'basement days' sometime after 2100.
Seb
Member
Wed Aug 08 17:31:56
WoO:

Think you missed the point here entirely if you are face palming.

Sam:

Compelling argument. How do you determine those numbers. Break it down for us.
Seb
Member
Wed Aug 08 17:39:35
WoO:

To spell it out: the best tend to be motivated by interest. They end up picking their own areas of study and wind up moderately well compensated through a range of streams of income.

They best are not people paid a lot to do a specific, often quite boring, job as an employee.

Sam is the latter but thinks he's the best, but actually he's the best his employer could secure as an employee. The top minds in his field are not going to sacrifice their academic freedom to churn out analysis for an employer on a 9-5 basis.

The interactions the actual best minds in his field have with his employer might be a one off consultancy to do a report on how the company could do better if Sam and his colleagues aren't delivering or monumentally fuck up by failing to understand when their practices have become obsolete in way similar to the risk modellers in the financial services in 2008.



Wrath of Orion
Member
Wed Aug 08 19:03:01
No, I didn't miss the point and it's still very Picard Facepalm worthy.
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Aug 09 11:39:36
Lol seb its quite simple. Its the difference between the worst ever observed prolonged wetbulb encounter at each site and fatal prolonged threshold.

A very simple yet robust method that proves you are full of shit, and that study is full of shit.

Pathetic.

Man, if i was that wrong, i would have killed a bunch of people long ago, probably myself too, lost shitloads of money, and they would have fired me posthumously and burnt my body out of well deserved spite.

But hey, if your not cut out for thinking, i suppose writing useless papers that are rarely read and never trusted is a good career choice. Low level government management is also a good option if you yourself are of ordinary intelligence.
The Children
Member
Thu Aug 09 12:14:33
white negros bgettin PWNED hard.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-m9cKGmhOzM

but thx 4 being so concerned bout china yo. we survive 5000 years on da same area but really the doomz is gonna start in da next 100 years...

like really.

hahaha



Seb
Member
Thu Aug 09 17:33:04
Sam Adams:

So what shift in average temperature corresponds to an 8 degree increase in worst event?

Remember what happens when you shift a Gaussian distributions mean to the frequency of tail events...
Seb
Member
Thu Aug 09 17:34:18
Nim will be familiar with this point I hope given he hangs his entire thesis on "no discrimination against women in tech" off of it.
Seb
Member
Thu Aug 09 17:35:31
Or rather an 8 degree increase in a once in 50 year tail event.
Seb
Member
Thu Aug 09 17:37:11
I love how Sam doesn't understand cross examination.
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Aug 09 17:47:15

"So what shift in average temperature corresponds to an 8 degree increase in worst event? "

About 8 degrees dumbseb. Lol! How the fuck did you even ask that. The distribution shape is the same, just shifted in position. The atmosphere is not getting any more or less erratic.
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Aug 09 17:50:31
Just once can you be right about anything? I get bored by your increasing lack of ability.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 10 11:33:54
The original "thesis" was that engineering relative to a the example of finance, did not have the issues of misogyny. That this was partly inherent to the nature of the profession.

Of course even way back then (3-4 weeks ago), within 3 posts or something like that, it was sebsplained back to me, completely incoherent.
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