Utopia Talk / Politics / Hawking+Musk. We are screwed

jergul large member	Thu Nov 09 17:30:35 OpenAI. Screwed. So screwed. Ok, here is the future of perpetual humanity (thinking in the billion year timeframe). Due to risks involved (any risk is too much on a long enough timeframe): Space traveling entities on trajectories unknown to any other space traveling entity. Colonization is always doomed on a timeline. Earth is doomed on a timeline. Individual space traveling entities doomed. So spore space traveling (every entity splits off an entity at certain intervals). Biology is inconsistent with sustained space travel over 1000nds of generations or more. Decanted humanity. Each space traveling entity needs to potential to decant humans when appropriate. So DNA blueprints and a selection of chemicals or the ability to harvest such chemicals. Humans are inherently risky. It will never be appropriate to decant humans. End result? An endless array of self-replicating entities travelling alone and in silence with the blueprint potential for human life. The only thing alive is the AI. And this is the best case scenario. All other alternatives lack even the potential of human life. I wonder if AIs will do mike-drops for their own amusement.
Cherub Cow Member	Thu Nov 09 17:36:00 @"Colonization is always doomed on a timeline" "On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."
jergul large member	Thu Nov 09 17:41:24 CC It is often dangerous to extrapolate from individuals to species. The point is that human potential can exist perpetually. For as long as all individual manifestations of that potential is avoided.
jergul large member	Thu Nov 09 17:44:42 Each individual AI will no doubt be a benevolent steward for her individual parcel of humanity. You could almost view it as the perpetual gestration of an endless number of very protective mothers.
jergul large member	Thu Nov 09 17:46:01 You could almost view it as perpetual gestration by an endless number of very protective mothers*
hood Member	Thu Nov 09 17:52:05 I don't get the point of this thread.
jergul large member	Thu Nov 09 17:57:18 Hood I am arguing that Exodus does not solve anything. On the bright side, we are less than 100 years away from beginning to seed the universe with stuff that could potentially be human. Self-replication. We may as well nuture our viral side.
hood Member	Thu Nov 09 19:03:01 I understood your words. Just not the point.
jergul large member	Thu Nov 09 19:15:57 Mkay.
jergul large member	Thu Nov 09 19:24:20 It does raise an interesting question about lifeboat Mars. A colony there will do nothing to secure the survival of a species (abeit in potential form), but could perhaps save individuals with the resources to swap planets is something dreadful happened to earth. Why exactly should it be a public venture to build a lifeboat for the very few individuals with the resources to move if something bad happens here?
Rugian Member	Thu Nov 09 19:31:58 "Why exactly should it be a public venture to build a lifeboat for the very few individuals with the resources to move if something bad happens here?" You know, I've been saying for a while now that there is a level of lethargy, apathy and self-hatred among modern Europeans which will eventually result in their gradual demographic destruction...but this is taking it to a whole new level. Yeah jergul, let's just let the entire human race die off, what's the point right? 'Fuck out of here with that modernist "we don't deserve to succeed" mentality already.
hood Member	Thu Nov 09 19:36:40 ^ the impolite way to phrase my comments.
Cherub Cow Member	Thu Nov 09 19:37:35 "It is often dangerous to extrapolate from individuals to species." lol, yeah okay, in many limited cases, but probably not on "a long enough timeline". "In some remote corner of the universe, poured out and glittering in innumerable solar systems, there once was a star on which clever animals invented knowledge. That was the highest and most mendacious minute of 'world history'—yet only a minute. After nature had drawn a few breaths the star grew cold, and the clever animals had to die." ...Wait, is Jergul really that crazy 2012 conspiracy person that we haven't seen in a while?
jergul large member	Thu Nov 09 19:48:51 Ruggy Why do you hate free enterprise? Musk can make his colony if he wants it. It is irrelevant to the long term survival of the human species. Besides, my point was that survival of the human race (or at least its potential) is secured through self-replicating space vessels. CC My point was the exact opposite. But thinking beyond the lifespan of stars leads to inevitable conclusions. We can exist as potential until the last matter in the universe turns to lead.
jergul large member	Thu Nov 09 19:54:33 Its also a more worthy cause. A billion or so dna blueprints (representing last model of everyone on earth - your dna blueprint if you do not have offspring. You children's if you do) on every ship gives your dna assured potential. Musk ain't promising anything like that.
smart dude Member	Thu Nov 09 19:56:31 Why do I give a shit if humanity exists a million years from now?
jergul large member	Thu Nov 09 19:58:40 SD We are sort of supposed to be programmed to care that our dna lives on in a million years. Or in Ruggy's case, care that Musk's dna lives on.
jergul large member	Thu Nov 09 20:07:57 Anyway, I am offering you a chance that your clone may live on. Potentially in innumerable incarnations.
obaminated Member	Thu Nov 09 20:43:54 Jergul, do not go gentle into that good night.
smart dude Member	Thu Nov 09 21:14:45 A million years from now my specific contributions to the gene pool will have vanished to nothing. Ship of Theseus.
Cherub Cow Member	Thu Nov 09 21:54:50 "But thinking beyond the lifespan of stars leads to inevitable conclusions." This is so vague and aggrandizing. Nothing is inevitable here. Destiny may only be delusion. .. "We can exist as potential until the last matter in the universe turns to lead." That's the meaningless platitude logic of some Eastern philosophy; like that we're all from stars and return to stars. Potential is not us. Just like HR's posting of super "smart" Mensa children — one economic downturn, and that child works retail for the rest of its life. What was potential there? Potential was its identity? No. Its identity was delusion of a becoming. Some people make those delusions real and grow confident in their simulations, but even a lead universe may not happen. Humanity usually demands a witness for itself. Empty vessels floating with AI through the universe have no payoff for humanity's want to be the central experience of the universe, so conscious human identities need to go on these trips (or the AI needs to be an adequate human consciousness?). It's selfish and finite, but humanity wants a cookie and a nap. It doesn't want to be passenger to a mute AI that gives it infinity but never gives it a cookie or a nap. Vicarious and potential isn't enough. Matthew McConaughey needs to fly into the black hole himself, and Zarquon needs to show up.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 10 00:43:15 CC What is vague about the lifespan of stars? I am happy that some people have delusions of becoming. And the money to pay for it. And yah, I am sure that the illusion of a cookie and a nap will be maintained. It just cannot play out that way to the end. Or even play out that way very far from the beginning. Backup redundancies will become the only norm. Like the thread title says. We are screwed.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 10 01:04:01 "or the AI needs to be an adequate human consciousness?" Or able to impersonate that function to a sufficient degree. I used the "mother" analogy to indicate the likelihood.
Cherub Cow Member	Fri Nov 10 01:29:28 [jergul]: "But thinking beyond the lifespan of stars leads to inevitable conclusions." [CC]: "This is so vague and aggrandizing. Nothing is inevitable here. Destiny may only be delusion." [jergul]: "What is vague about the lifespan of stars?" In the context of my reply, it should have been clear that what was vague was "inevitable conclusions" not "the lifespan of stars". That is, your conclusions would not be necessarily inevitable, even if probable. .. [jergul]: "It just cannot play out that way to the end." Then you do seem to acknowledge that humans will go extinct on a long enough time line. DNA molecules in a tube would not be humanity. So yeah, "Like the thread title says. We are screwed" — at least on "a long enough timeline". Humans develop extended sensoria (probes across the galaxy, infrared camera, satellites, children, related experiences of stories, etc.) as a way to feed the primary sensorium (the nervous system, brain, and reward pathways). Without the personal payoff of the primary sensorium, the extended doesn't matter to humans.
Dukhat Member	Fri Nov 10 01:39:03 Why do you care about the human race rugian? We all know you only care about the white race and your kind refuses to admit the existential threat of even widely proven science in Man-made climate change. Leave the science talk to the big boys. ******************************************* Why preserve Human life Jergul? There is nothing special about us. We are a selfish bag of meat and bones and most people spend their higher-level intellect not helping advance the race but trying to enrich themselves usually at other people's expense. As the only known example of sentience in the Universe, we do a god-awful job of proving our worth. I'm not sure if scientists agree that maintaining some kind of biological life will be worth it given the extremely rare nature of environments that support it in the universe. It is as many science fiction writers as said; the future probably belongs to robots made in our image that go around the universe exploring. All robots need are energy and access to heavy metals to repair themselves. Much easier to find and transport than an artificial replica of our environment that has to be protected from the vast vaccum of space along with huge and heavy quantities of organic matter needed for humans to sustain themselves.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 10 01:40:37 CC The conclusion is inevitable from what we know about calculating risk. Feel free to have your own way of calculating risk. Who said DNA in a tube? DNA stored as data. Your dna to be specific. With the potential for decanted life. The extended may not matter to humans beyond what it trigger in their imaginations. But it will matter to AIs because of what it triggers in their imaginations.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 10 01:45:18 "Robots made in our image"? Why on earth would anything as silly as that be reasonable?
Dukhat Member	Fri Nov 10 01:47:12 Why wouldn't it? It's easier to send robots into space rather than life. It would be magnitudes cheaper once the technology for robots were perfected.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 10 01:49:58 Robots made in man's image is a pretty ludicrous complication. Data+processingpower+3d printer is the barebones version.
Dukhat Member	Fri Nov 10 02:51:36 Well that was just a phrase commonly used to describe the thinking behind their creation. They'd likely be completely utilitarian in their looks and not look like us but with their processing circuity to mimic human thought or some advanced form of it. It brings up the interesting philosophical point if the thing that makes us human is our flesh or our ability to think independently. Especially since robots would likely be magnitudes better at cognition than humans are. Or maybe the robots would be simple tools working on spaceships that constantly search for energy sources as the universe dies it's heat death. They'd be like millions of locusts swarming the universe each with a self-contained "earth" run inside a gigantic computer that simulates earth in its prime and billions of human minds working indepedently. When there is energy the simulation works full tilt. When the energy run lows it goes to sleep hoping that the spaceship will find another source of power eventually. Only eventually none do and the human "race" as it exists is extinguished with a whimper not a bang.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 10 05:00:29 Dukhat Why the simhumanity? Heat Death (if indeed a thing) takes at least a googol years: 10 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 years.
Average European Member	Fri Nov 10 06:48:07 Humanity: 0.0% of galactic GDP by 20,202,020.
hood Member	Fri Nov 10 07:45:35 So much wasted effort in this thread by people considering themselves to be wise. Is life pointless? Yeah, quite likely. Is it useful to dwell on the pointlessness of humanity? Not really. Nor is it helpful to dwell on the inevitably of human extinction (or "preservation") on the time scale of "the lifespan of stars." We get it; you consider yourself a modern philosopher, jergul. Yet philosophy without point, as you lack here, is just pleasant (or unpleasant) fiction. Without the ability to self reflect on your musings, there is no benefit, no reason to consider your words. Dukhat is just funny, with his "leave the science talk" crap when we all know he's not remotely a scientist.
Asgard Member	Fri Nov 10 07:51:24 Can we drop the evolution bullshit? Humans in space will rely on machines and hydroponic farms - there will be no need for evolutionary changes to gain survivability advantages. Evolution will simply stop for Humans.
TJ Member	Fri Nov 10 10:18:47 A mutation of consciousness is the future for humanity. I would advise not to imprison it artificially as it has already been done at birth. The reincarnation isn't destined for this dimension. We are presently deluded in a contradiction. =)
jergul large member	Fri Nov 10 10:28:31 AE What has Ruggy said about making sweeping gdp predictions? Hood Ah, that is what got your goat. Lulz. Stay out of the thread then. I dunno. Write a book about burning trees or something. This is much more a critque of Musk and Hawking's philosophy than it is my own unique contribution. TJ I am arguably talking about a mutation of consciousness. Chemistry to biology to chemistry again.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 10 10:32:55 Asgard I am arguably also talking about the end of evolution for humans. Hood Or view it as sci-fi. A burning bush is a bit more in the fantasy genre I think. Done before incidentally. But that is ok.
swordtail Anarchist Prime	Fri Nov 10 11:03:48 "I wonder if AIs will do mike-drops for their own amusement." Bender Bending Rodríguez would.
TJ Member	Fri Nov 10 11:07:44 TJ I am arguably talking about a mutation of consciousness. Chemistry to biology to chemistry again. ------------------------- Absolutely, which creates the deluded contradiction of natural and artificial. It is possible that AI has already artificially seeded humanity many times over, unrealized and a perpetual process. Our conscious mutation needs a foundation of natural eternity. AI may last longer than humanity, but will remain material and subject to end. I'd prefer to breach the vacuum that imprisons. I expect to exit my personal cell deluded or not. =)
jergul large member	Fri Nov 10 11:13:05 "will remain material and subject to end." Self-replication and diaspora in an endless loop contradicts that outcome. Our viral contribution to advance.
TJ Member	Fri Nov 10 11:21:30 Replication is designed and not self. You can have your artificial matrix.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 10 11:31:48 TJ Nature-Nuture. Even a cloned system would diverge at birth. But there is no need to clone. Random variations similar to normal generation shifts in humans is entirely possible and perhaps even desirable. A sense of self is ultimately up to the entity to determine if it exists or not. But it would certainly not be a matrix. Separate data points by definition.
TJ Member	Fri Nov 10 11:44:54 "A sense of self is ultimately up to the entity to determine if it exists or not." That depends on perspective. It is clear our perspectives differ. Normal is natural per individual. I'll continue to press the issue differences between natural and artificial. Perhaps we are speculating our futures. A sense of self.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 10 11:48:39 We may not differ as much as you think. OP: "Screwed. So screwed"
TJ Member	Fri Nov 10 12:08:43 Humanity is obvious destiny, as well as individual or wholeness, whether natural or artificial. The boundaries are undetermined knowledge. I wouldn't term it as humanity is screwed, but simply is what it is. It appears to me as though humanity can't be satisfied in its current form. Natural indeed! The difference is considerable.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 10 12:31:05 Well, the lifeboat strategy is non-viable beyond a short term "saving Musk's dna". Musk being any individual who can wing a one way ticket to Mars colony. Not that I am against public funds being spent. Say 100k a year or something to support such a venture.
hood Member	Fri Nov 10 13:27:20 You really do get exceedingly salty when your stupidity is pointed out. Almost passive aggressive. Kind of the pussy way out, don't you think?
Forwyn Member	Fri Nov 10 13:45:02 Can't beat entropy anyways, as far as we know. But if we're looking that far ahead instead of in decades/centuries, discouraging end-results are assured. A billion years is meaningless to a meatbag that does well to make it to a hundred. No guarantee of exodus in the near future, either. A fall of Rome equivalent could waste another thousand years of advancement.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 10 13:58:56 Hood Lulz. You go, girl! Forwyn Perhaps entropy is a thing. We don't really know. But that is a much larger timeline than mere billions of years. 10^100 years compares to billions of years like seconds compare to billions of years.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 10 13:59:52 Exodus on AI terms is feasible in decades, not centuries.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 10 14:24:51 Also. nanosecond to billions of years. It gives an additional 9 zeroes at least. So closer.
jergul large member	Tue Nov 14 02:45:15 Escapism simply does not make any sense from a risk analysis perspective. The first thing to do is minimize risk on the mother ship. Yawn world peace, ecological balance, asteroid defence, energy reserves (locked in gravity well syndrome) etc. Then look were it is easiest to put lifeboats. The answer of course is on the mother ship. High survivable infrastructure, large natural habitats, seed banks. Then look at how it is easiest to expand in space. Small, automated, replicating gerome carriers. Mars is not even a blip on the radar.
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