Utopia Talk / Politics / Hurricane Ophelia

swordtail rank	Thu Oct 12 18:05:27 2017 Hurricane Ophelia could soon reach Europe Ophelia is the 10th consecutive Atlantic tropical storm to strengthen into a hurricane this year. Ludovica Iaccino By Ludovica Iaccino October 12, 2017 10:02 BST Hurricane Ophelia is strengthening over the eastern Atlantic Ocean and could soon hit Europe. The hurricane is about 745 miles south-west of the Azores archipelago and could be strengthen over the next 24 hours. "Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near 3mph (6km/h). This general motion is expected on Thursday, followed by faster motion toward the east-northeast or northeast on Friday," the US National Hurricane Centre (NHC) said on Wednesday 11 October. Ophelia is also expected to hit the UK next week. However, the NHC said it would be downgraded to a storm by then. Forecaster Eleanor Bell, of The Weather Channel, said: "Latest model guidance is indicating Ophelia will move in from the Azores across the Biscay area around Sunday and move on towards Britain early next week. "This will push a plume of warmer air in from the south ahead of it. It is important to note we are still a week out and the models will likely vary in exact timing and position of Ophelia over the next few forecast runs. "But we expect temperatures to be 4C to 6C above normal for the time of year over the weekend with a gradual cooler trend through next week. "Above-normal temperatures could continue into Monday before getting cooler from Tuesday. However, temperatures are still set to be one or two degrees above normal." Ophelia is the 10th consecutive Atlantic tropical storm to strengthen into a hurricane this year. A series of hurricanes – Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nat – devastated several areas in the US and the Caribbeans, where hundreds were killed and injured and buildings were destroyed. http://www...ould-soon-reach-europe-1642852
Aeros rank	Thu Oct 12 18:20:38 2017 They will get rain. Oh no.
Average European rank	Thu Oct 12 18:25:57 2017 Fake news. There was no hurricane Nat.
Sam Adams rank	Thu Oct 12 18:33:37 2017 Butttt but but jergul says hurricane cannot exist over non-tropical waters. Oh noes!!! Magic hurricane!!!!
Aeros rank	Thu Oct 12 18:44:06 2017 It would be fun if a Cat 1 storm plowed into Ireland though. The potato eaters would literally get BTFO. Unfortunately this one probably won't have any staying power that far north.
Paramount rank	Thu Oct 12 18:50:11 2017 It's raining here in Stockholm now. Am I going to die?
Aeros rank	Thu Oct 12 18:50:36 2017 Yes. But not from rain but in a failure to profess true faith in Allah.
Sam Adams rank	Thu Oct 12 19:49:58 2017 The big winter open atlantic storms occaisionally approach low end hurricane strength, so the impact of a cat1 storm on the coasts of the far north would be minimal.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Oct 13 00:40:19 2017 Jergul why is ophelia strengthening even as water temperatures cool?
jergul rank	Fri Oct 13 01:22:17 2017 Because saturated warm air is meeting cold dry air and releasing a shitload of energy as water condensates sammy. You know how much energy it takes to boil a gallon pot of boiling water dry? That is how much energy is released per gallon water condensating. Water will only evaporate quickly enough to continue to feed the process (positive loop) if ocean temperature beneath the hurricane is 26 C or more to a depth of 60 m. The hurricane will lose strength relatively quickly if it is not fed by proper ocean conditions.
Hot Rod rank	Fri Oct 13 01:23:49 2017 Has anyone besides me ever been to the Azores>
Sam Adams rank	Fri Oct 13 01:24:51 2017 "Water will only evaporate quickly enough to continue to feed the process (positive loop) if ocean temperature beneath the hurricane is 26 C or more to a depth of 60 m. The hurricane will lose strength relatively quickly if it is not fed by proper ocean conditions." Ophelia disagrees
jergul rank	Fri Oct 13 01:38:07 2017 I am quite sure Ophelia agrees with me. Because maths.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Oct 13 01:48:53 2017 Why is she strengthening over 25 degree water then? And thats surface temp. The 60m average is obviously colder. Probably something like 22 or 23.
jergul rank	Fri Oct 13 02:12:13 2017 1 degree C? That is your point? It may not be colder deeper. The whole point of the depth criteria is that hurricanes move a lot of water around and tend to effectively equalize temperatures down to 60 m. I am quoting commonly recognized threshold values. I would attribute the 25 C to flaws in measuring (how many samples of the whatever 100ds of km2 the hurricane covers for example), or perhaps compensatory variables I could not possibly specify (but lets toss out salinity variations as one of them. Why not). Or perhaps the threshold values simply are not absolute, but rather a rule of thumb. Weak sammy.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Oct 13 02:46:16 2017 "The whole point of the depth criteria is that hurricanes move a lot of water around and tend to effectively equalize temperatures down to 60 m." True. The surface under ophelia is now colder than 25. "Or perhaps the threshold values simply are not absolute, but rather a rule of thumb." Of course it is a rule of thumb. That rule is based on the old climate. You claimed it was absolute. I merely refuted that. "or perhaps compensatory variables" Indeed. Like upper level cold.
jergul rank	Fri Oct 13 11:15:02 2017 I never claimed it absolute. I have claimed it to be commonly recognized threshold criteria.
Aeros rank	Fri Oct 13 15:35:16 2017 My, this is getting interesting. Ophelia just strengthened to Category 2.
jergul rank	Fri Oct 13 16:19:15 2017 "just" It was Cat 2 @ Thu Oct 12 18:22:17.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Oct 13 18:15:15 2017 Thats a pretty good storm for water that cold huh jergul? Lol.
jergul rank	Fri Oct 13 19:13:14 2017 Sammy Lol indeed. By what measure is 25 C (if we accept that is indeed the actual water temperature) cold? This must be incredibly embarrassing for you. Assuming your net personas claim of what you do for a living is actually true. I am starting to seriously wonder about that.
Aeros rank	Sat Oct 14 17:56:02 2017 Upgraded to Category 3 as of the 11 AM forecast by the NHC. Ireland still in the bullseye, Met Eir has issued a Code Red weather alert for Monday.
Sam Adams rank	Sat Oct 14 21:47:41 2017 thats a mighty fine looking storm for qater that is getting colder and colder. Rofl jergul.
Dukhat rank	Sat Oct 14 21:52:10 2017 I don't get why Sam even opens his mouth. He just self-owns himself.
jergul rank	Sat Oct 14 23:42:14 2017 Sammy The water is not getting colder and colder. Water temperature is a critical and defining element of the positive loop required for a hurricane to build strength or sustain itself. The flaw here is your water temperature claims. Nothing else.
patom rank	Sun Oct 15 14:52:55 2017 Ophelia is now a category 3 hurricane heading for Ireland this morning.
Hot Rod rank	Sun Oct 15 16:23:22 2017 I guess no one has been to the Azores except me. It was very nice when I was there.
jergul rank	Sun Oct 15 16:39:44 2017 Nice in the pre-jet era. Have you also been to Gander, Newfoundland? Another pleasant stop-over place.
Hot Rod rank	Sun Oct 15 16:52:03 2017 Probably, I know I was in Newfoundland
Aeros rank	Sun Oct 15 22:17:00 2017 She's still looking healthy, really strong Cat 1. What are the odds she holds it together for the next 24 hours for her date with the Irish?
Hot Rod rank	Sun Oct 15 22:43:32 2017 I hope it turns into a sprinkle overnight.
Sam Adams rank	Mon Oct 16 16:41:18 2017 Rofl jergul how does it feel to be so wrong?
jergul rank	Mon Oct 16 21:27:38 2017 Sammy ROFL sammy, how does if feel to be so wrong about your water temperature claims?
Aeros rank	Mon Oct 16 21:48:36 2017 Would you two quit shitting up the threads with your shitty arguments? Nobody cares. I don't care. Ergo, nobody cares.
Hot Rod rank	Mon Oct 16 22:36:29 2017 I thought I cared. But, I guess I was wrong. :,(
Sam Adams rank	Mon Oct 16 22:39:04 2017 Lol jergul is trying to weasel out of his dumbness with more dumbness. Sea surface temps near where the storm strengthened to cat 3 were some 22C, and about 16C at landfall as a cat1 or 2. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/ http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov Pwnt
Sam Adams rank	Mon Oct 16 22:45:31 2017 Saw some roofs off. Pretty good for a hurricane at 50 degrees north. Lol jergul.
jergul rank	Mon Oct 16 23:25:21 2017 Sammy Feel free to dispute the commonly recognized benchmark threshold for as much as you like. The links you provided show absolutely nothing about ocean temperatures beneath any given hurricane. Jergul: The Soviets captured Berlin Sammy: Rofl, wrong. The US had sherman tanks
Sam Adams rank	Tue Oct 17 00:03:56 2017 A fisherman who cant even look up buoy temperatures. Sad.
jergul rank	Tue Oct 17 00:48:37 2017 A fisherman who knows buoy temperatures give the temperature exactly where the buoy is. Its like I have been to sea or something.
jergul rank	Tue Oct 17 00:50:53 2017 You should try not to emphasis why I catch on easily when it comes to ocean weather phenonoma sammy.
jergul rank	Tue Oct 17 00:56:59 2017 Incidentally, the only thing you are challenging here is commonly accepted thresholds for minimum ocean temperatures. Say you are right and hurricanes can only be created and sustained at water temperatures above 22 (or whatever degrees. No skin off my teeth. Global warming still means more frequent and stronger hurricanes. Physics dictate that more tropical storms will be upgraded, and more hurricanes will gain strength longer than they would otherwise.
Sam Adams rank	Tue Oct 17 01:27:57 2017 "A fisherman who knows buoy temperatures give the temperature exactly where the buoy is. " And the hurricane ran over or near buoys. RIP jergul. Couldnt even figure out what temperature the ocean is now... thinks he knows what hurricanes will do in the future. Lol. Jergul maths.
Sam Adams rank	Tue Oct 17 01:31:54 2017 And if the buoys are not good enough, im sure you will whine about the IR satellites that say the same thing. Rofl jergul.
Sam Adams rank	Tue Oct 17 01:32:15 2017 Doesnt even understand the ocean. Lulz.
Average European rank	Tue Oct 17 01:41:49 2017 Isn't casting doubt on temp data what the...climate d.d.d..de..deniers do?!?
jergul rank	Tue Oct 17 01:41:57 2017 Sammy Sad showing. I am taking seriously the part where 26 C to 60 may actually mean 26 C at the surface and normal temperate layer conditions derived from surface conditions (sub sea level water can at times be a lot colder than expected). But your extrapolating from a single datapoint? Pathetic. Particularly as it means nothing. I dont fucking care if the normally recognized threshold values are in reality lower than the scientific community thinks. It has no bearing on my argument. Hotter means more no matter what threshold criteria you set.
jergul rank	Tue Oct 17 01:43:25 2017 Average Europea Extrapolating from insufficient and cherry picked datapoints is what climate d.d.d.de deniers do.
jergul rank	Tue Oct 17 01:48:56 2017 Jergul: The hurricane will weaken if water is not warm enough to sustain it. Sat Oct 14 10:56:02 Upgraded to Category 3 Sun Oct 15 15:17:00 She's still looking healthy, really strong Cat 1 Sammy: Rofl, jergul pwnd.
Sam Adams rank	Tue Oct 17 02:08:07 2017 "Hotter means more " Energy transfer is not surface hear jergul. Lol. Fail. "Isn't casting doubt on temp data what the...climate d.d.d..de..deniers do?!? " Lil. Good point. Jergul is now a climate denier.
jergul rank	Tue Oct 17 02:16:30 2017 You did complete a BSc...or d.d.d.did you? You seem to have a crap grasp on scientific validity.
jergul rank	Tue Oct 17 02:20:48 2017 The moral of this story is that if you have not taken the university credits, then you can only take your bluff so far before people question it. I seriously thought you understood weather sammy. *Enter threads* No more.
Sam Adams rank	Tue Oct 17 19:54:21 2017 A guy that doesnt know how to look up ocean temperature... sure does talk a lot.
	show deleted posts

Your Name:
Your Password:
Your Message: