Utopia Talk / Politics / Rebels shoot down aircraft pt 4

earthpig GTFO HOer	Fri Jul 18 18:48:48 http://ata...hread?id=politics&thread=69002 ^Prev thread^
jergul large member	Fri Jul 18 18:53:29 This one or mine?
earthpig GTFO HOer	Fri Jul 18 18:54:58 Mine has the accurate thread title. :P
Hot Rod Revved Up	Fri Jul 18 18:55:02 ep was first.
Hot Rod Revved Up	Fri Jul 18 18:55:24 jergul, you really should learn to read. "Do you think it is conceivable that some of them may be trained on the advanced systems?" "Or do you think it is conceivable that Russian military may have or may be training the rebels how to use the systems?" Clearly what I am saying that during their prior service they may have been assigned to and trained in these systems? Or that they may be under training to operate these systems. Clearly those paragraphs are too long for you to comprehend, but I have my fingers crossed.
jergul large member	Fri Jul 18 18:58:32 You must know lots of veterans. How about you and EP take everyone you know and fill the 40 odd slots you need filled for a Patriot battery. I will keep it simple. Tell me if you know more than two people. I doubt it. rebel forces are no differents. 1000ds of people in scores or hundreds of groups. There is no way. Simply no way. As history proves by rebels never managing to shoot down a high altitude aircraft.
jergul large member	Fri Jul 18 18:58:56 Can you repost here TW?
earthpig GTFO HOer	Fri Jul 18 19:03:19 Where did you get this nonsense about an entire battery and 47 people? They fired one missile at an unverified target! " In theory, the operators of the firing unit should have had warning that the plane had a civilian transponder, and the radar unit, command unit, and launch vehicle should all have detected this. But, if the rebels fired the missile, it is unclear that the rebels had a full set of such vehicles. They may only have had launch vehicles. This would put far more of a load on the single launch vehicle’s 3-4 man crew. Moreover, part of the system may have been down and failed to properly display the transponder data. The rebels also may have had little real training or familiarity with the system and have been trained to fire at any likely target, rather than focus on flight characteristics and carefully look for transponder data. " http://csi...sions+in+Iran&utm_medium=email
swordtail Anarchist Prime	Fri Jul 18 19:05:28 In short, the fact this is a horrible human tragedy should not lead to rushed judgment as to motive, guilt, or intent. Far too little data is available, and many of the facts we do know indicate that the environment may well have led to mistakes. http://csi...sions+in+Iran&utm_medium=email
McKobb Member	Fri Jul 18 19:05:54 Sounds like untrained irregulars using big boy toys.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Fri Jul 18 19:05:59 Any why is it "my immediate friends" or whatever? A significant swath of the country is in rebellion. That is the pool of recruits. Equivalent of, say, all Mexican-Americans in New Mexico and Arizona. Yup, I could easily drum a half dozen former Army/USMC air defense guys of Mexican origin in NM/AZ.
McKobb Member	Fri Jul 18 19:09:49 "The U.S. military’s top commander in Europe spoke of Russians training pro-Russian separatists from Ukraine at the Pentagon last month. “What we see in training on the east side of the border is big equipment, tanks, APCs [armored personnel carriers], anti-aircraft capability,” Air Force General Philip Breedlove said, referring to the Russian side of the Russian-Ukrainian border. “And now we see those capabilities being used on the west side of the border”—inside Ukraine."
jergul large member	Fri Jul 18 19:10:29 EP No, there is no warning on Ukrainian BUKs (courtesy of Warsawa pact design). There is also no load. They need to point the targeting radar at the correct place, program the INS correctly and launch. What they have is endless complications without the units inherent support. It would be like putting a patch over one eye, and look through a toiletpaper roll with the other, then manage to shoot a bird with a bow an arrow you have never used before. Which is why rebels have never ever in the history of mankind ever shot down a high altitude aircraft. Seriously, all probability point to a professional force behind the incident with the additional likelihood of it being Ukraine. They have far more launchers in the area, are on high alert, and have managed to mistakenly shoot down a high altitude civilian aircraft before. Which is more than rebels in the history of mankind can claim. Its in the numbers EP. Apply your education if you could.
jergul large member	Fri Jul 18 19:15:08 EP What you are looking for is close associates willing to join "your" group. We will pretend you happen to have a BUK system. Leaving other groups to join your group would be like leaving the USMC to join the Army for a paygrade hike.
jergul large member	Fri Jul 18 19:17:15 Mckobb Russia (indeed no one) is in the slightest bit interested in rebels anywhere mastering sophisticated SAM systems. This includes Russia. If Russia wants functional BUK systems in the Ukraine, then it will supply the crew.
Hot Rod Revved Up	Fri Jul 18 19:38:51 jergul, ever heard of computers?
earthpig GTFO HOer	Fri Jul 18 19:41:23 " What you are looking for is close associates willing to join "your" group. We will pretend you happen to have a BUK system. Leaving other groups to join your group would be like leaving the USMC to join the Army for a paygrade hike. " @FreeNM-AZ tweeted: Captured a PATRIOT system. Intact. #FreeGreaterMexico #DieGringoScum And wait for them to come to you.
McKobb Member	Fri Jul 18 19:51:46 So you don't think there a possibility Russia is priming an annexation? They might have done that recently.
dakyron Member	Fri Jul 18 20:40:41 Jergul thinks it takes a PhD to operate a SAM. High school dropouts with criminal records in the us army do it. I personally know army officers dumber than mud who operated this kind of equipment.
Hot Rod Revved Up	Fri Jul 18 21:03:17 Plus, I believe the "47 man crew" is needed to do all of the checks and balances to verify that they are shooting at a legitimate target.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Jul 18 21:11:58 So, now that we have basically confirmed that rebels did indeed do this, what should the action of the US/Civilized world be?
jergul large member	Fri Jul 18 21:34:30 Yes, now that we have basically confirmed that state actors have done this. The only thing I have learned here is that taxpayer dollars sure wasted a lot of money on those educations of yours. The numbers morons. Never ever in the history of man have rebels shot down a high altitude aircraft. For good reason (and ty EP for illustrating so clearly how impossible it would be). Often in the history of man have state actors shot down high altitude aircraft. Otherwise its just 7:1. Ukraine has 7 times the number of batteries able to screw up in this order of magnitude in the area in question. Which gives us about the odds of who did this. Give or take a few fractions for various reasons including the mindbogglingly unlikely possibility that rebels did it.
jergul large member	Fri Jul 18 21:38:05 I will tweet meself a fucking army of specialist. Jesus Christ.
jergul large member	Fri Jul 18 22:03:14 Russia has been so kind as to specify the number of Ukrainian BUK batteries (2) within range. So 2:1 odds in favour of a spectacular Ukrainian screwup...give or take. So there we are: 66% Ukraine 33% Russia 1% Rebels
Wrath of Orion Member	Fri Jul 18 22:04:21 "So, now that we have basically confirmed that rebels did indeed do this, what should the action of the US/Civilized world be?" First step should probably be to execute jergul. His retardation can't be allowed to exist any longer. After that, who knows.
State Department Member	Fri Jul 18 22:32:07 A B-2 should've been taking off while debris from MA17 was still falling.
JNH Member	Fri Jul 18 22:57:53 "Hence external identification. Adding vivid description to what I said does not make me unsay it. Your alternatives are: 1. There was in fact a surveillance radar active. or 2. External ID was achieved by other means. IE visual observation. Meaning that the downing was intentional." Visual ID can fail at 10 km.
JNH Member	Fri Jul 18 23:05:17 "1. Rebels = outlandishly impossible. 2. Russians = possible, but less likely than Ukraine. 3. Ukraine = Most likely. " Ukraine most likely based on what? They will have flight data available. They have no reason for shooting at steadily flying plane on route from roughly Kiev to Rostov and then shoot it near Russian border. Someone else may have a reason to shoot something on that flight path.
Hot Rod Revved Up	Sat Jul 19 00:48:07 jergul, another point against your argument. There are certain protocols a battery of that nature follows. They go through a series checks to make sure they are firing at is a legitimate military target. The Ukrainians would be trained to go through all of those checks and protocols. That would make them less likely to shoot down a civilian aircraft.
Hot Rod Revved Up	Sat Jul 19 00:57:17 Obama says Malaysian plane shot down by missile from rebel-held part of Ukraine By Karen DeYoung July 18 at 7:54 PM The United States on Friday began building a circumstantial case against Russia for the downing of a Malaysian airliner, as President Obama said Russian supplies of sophisticated weapons to Ukrainian separatists were “not an accident.” Confirming widespread reports of preliminary U.S. conclusions, Obama said the plane “was shot down” Thursday by a surface-to-air missile fired from separatist territory. All 298 aboard, including one U.S. citizen, were killed. Obama stopped short of publicly accusing the separatists, or their Russian patrons, of pulling the trigger. But he left little doubt whom he believed was to blame for what he called “an outrage of unspeakable proportions.” As an international inquiry was organized, and investigators struggled to reach the wreckage and bodies strewn across fields of wheat and sunflowers in separatist-held territory, Obama said Russian President Vladi­mir Putin has the power to end the escalating violence in Ukraine. “If Mr. Putin makes a decision that we are not going to allow heavy armaments and the flow of fighters . . . across the Ukrainian-Russian border, then it will stop,” he said in remarks at the White House. “He has the most control over that situation, and so far, at least, he has not exercised it.” MORE: http://www...4-8c9a-923ecc0c7d23_story.html
Hot Rod Revved Up	Sat Jul 19 01:36:44 Apparently it has been proved that the SAM battery was indeed supplied to the separatists by the Russians. They expect it was moved back to Russia. This is the latest I am hearing now.
obaminated Member	Sat Jul 19 01:37:16 Keep us informed, HR
Hot Rod Revved Up	Sat Jul 19 01:38:21 You take over, I'm going to bed.
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 05:49:07 JNH A battery level screw up. With air defences on highest alert, then that is where fire authority rests. Ukraine has twice the batteries Russia might have had in the area. HR Yah, Ukraine also has 2 batteries in "rebel controlled areas". These are not homogenous zones. The Ukrainian military kept control of most of its bases in rebel areas. The rebels. Russia did not supply a SAM battery to the separatists. It moved one of its batteries into the Ukraine if that version is true. There is a significant chance Russia was responsible for the fuck-up. There is just no chance the rebels were. Orion You really do have shit for brains, m'kay?
Sam Adams Member	Sat Jul 19 09:08:49 jergul keeps ignoring the fact that the rebels admit to shooting it down. hilariously stupid.
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 09:17:05 Sammy What you have is rumours that some rebels thought a different rebel group manning a check point had shot down a plane. You dont mind my calling supposedly deleted posts from twitter, fb, and an audio from the Ukrainian KGB for rumours do you? What is wrong with that brain of yours?
Sam Adams Member	Sat Jul 19 09:23:56 Of course they deleted their posts. They did so once they realized it was a civilian plane. Think.
CrownRoyal Member	Sat Jul 19 09:26:30 Jergul, by repetedly calling them KGB, instead of their actuall name, SBU, do you want to signal to Sam how they cannot be trusted, you know, KGB cannot be trusted? Is that the gist, or were you going for something else?
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 09:31:01 Even if the posts did exist and where created by this or that rebel, it still amounts to hearsay. Some rebels thought some other rebels had shot down a plane from their checkpoint (the checkpoint bit has to be factually wrong. BUKs have no business being positioned at checkpoints). The most likely variant is indeed that rebels knew of a plane crash and knew that some cossaks at a roadblock had manpads. They connected those dots. Which is about as credible as you saying the cossaks shot down a plane from a checkpoint they were manning. Think.
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 09:32:46 CR Yah, that was the gist. I would not trust state security east of Germany further than I can throw them. Which aint very far. You are not disputing that they are corrupt and highly politised are you?
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 09:35:42 "Ukrainian military officials initially denied that their missile had brought down the plane; they reported that the S-200 had been launched seawards and had successfully self-destructed. Indeed, Defense Ministry spokesman Konstantin Khivrenko noted that "neither the direction nor the range (of the missiles) correspond to the practical or theoretical point at which the plane exploded."[12][13] However, Ukrainian officials later admitted that it was indeed their military that shot down the airliner.[14][15] Ukraine, reportedly, banned the testing of Buk, S-300 and similar missile systems for a period of 7 years following this incident" Wiki. About the 2001 downing of civilian airliner. Initially blamed on....Chechen rebels.
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 09:38:19 Now, 6 years after the moratorium of testing ended, but with no reason to believe Ukrainian skillsets have improved due to chronic underfunding, you again have a situation where Ukraine denies shooting down a civilian aircraft and claims that rebels have done it. Its like deja-vu all over again.
CrownRoyal Member	Sat Jul 19 09:40:11 I tend to agree. Putin and his innermost circle, and by extention all Russian government is a perfect example of it. KGB, Can't be trusted. As for Ukrainian SBU (and military for that matter), I'd let them all go, at once. Police too, something like saakashvili did in Georgia. There is a new generation coming, hopefully much better than the old homo soveticus.
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 09:42:28 CR What Homo Soveticus does have is a particular brand of predictability. You can trust them to be predictable if you know what to look for (I suspect you to some degree know what to look for).
CrownRoyal Member	Sat Jul 19 09:45:51 homo soveticus is subhuman, if you want to live in a civilized country, there is no choice but to get rid of it. As for dealing with states populated by this specimen, yeah, I suppose it is better than dealing with ISIS
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 09:55:00 More geared to a different kind of reality than sub-human. I knew them in their natural habitat where Gorbi was the man out. But there is a certain something in all areas conquered by the Mongols... In a 1 death is a tragedy, a 1 million is a statistic kind of way.
swordtail Anarchist Prime	Sat Jul 19 10:15:47 at the end of the day,regardless whether the rebels,i mean the terrorists as willy wonka and his entourage call them,or the Ukrainians or the Russians,shot the plane down,the blame lies with the junta in kiev and their paymasters in washington. they started this shit. they're the ones that created the hostile environment this tragic event occurred in.
CrownRoyal Member	Sat Jul 19 10:17:27 "More geared to a different kind of reality than sub-human. " More accepting of this reality, of something that normal people should never fully accept. Hence, inferior to humans
OsamaIsDaWorstPresid Member	Sat Jul 19 10:54:03 "jergul large member Sat Jul 19 09:31:01 Even if the posts did exist and where created by this or that rebel, it still amounts to hearsay. " "writen confesions r not evidense" - jergel
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 11:27:02 CR The reality was more real to them. They knew millions can actually die. We have trouble with that concept.
Seb Member	Sat Jul 19 12:26:17 The cogitative dissonance on display is amazing. Ukraine tries to sign a trade deal - Russia piles on the pressure - the corrupt adminstration backtracks. People come out on the street - the adminstration folds and parliament calls new elections. In the meantime Russia invades and annexes Crimea and foments an uprising in the east, arming the rebels who then shoot down an airliner. America has done nothing. Europe, heinously, offered a trade deal (with carveouts for defence and other key industries to protect Russian interests). Russia on the other hand has bullied Ukraine from the start, forced its government against its people, invaded it, annexed part of it... And somehow America is the bad guy? If America is the bad guy it is only through failure to support the Ukraine.
CrownRoyal Member	Sat Jul 19 12:28:19 Gtfo, what millions? This is like a third generation, post war. Fly to Sheremetievo, look at the eyes of any fat custom official. It is a separate tribe who owns your ass. And not because he knows how "millions can die", but because he has to kick up a certain amount upstairs, to his boss. Equally fat, indifferent and belonging to the same tribe, where doing his actual job is pretty low down the list. Same with cops and any govt officials. Homo Soveticus, who now also thinks of himself a capotal
Crownroyal Member	Sat Jul 19 12:30:54 Capitalist
Crownroyal Member	Sat Jul 19 12:34:25 "If America is the bad guy it is only through failure to support the Ukraine. " Indeed. But then again, nobody owes anything to ukraine
Crownroyal Member	Sat Jul 19 12:37:34 In kiev, the rumblings were always, "Where is the US? Why aren't they helping us?" Same for EU. To the always-blame-America crowd the reality is the opposite, of course.
swordtail Anarchist Prime	Sat Jul 19 12:40:40 "Ukraine tries to sign a trade deal - Russia piles on the pressure - the corrupt adminstration backtracks. People come out on the street - the adminstration folds and parliament calls new elections." yeah no pressure from fuck the eu nuland and friends. nopes none. no incendiary remarks by the junta that took over after the "bad" oligarch left. no attacks by right wing junta supporters on Ukrainians who spoke out. nopes none. "In the meantime Russia invades and annexes Crimea and foments an uprising in the east, arming the rebels who then shoot down an airliner." crimeans voted against being in bed with the kiev junta. the Russians didn't invade they were already there. the Russians didn't foment the uprising,the crooks and criminals in kiev did with their actions and words. "America has done nothing." see fuck the eu nuland. "Europe, heinously, offered a trade deal (with carveouts for defence and other key industries to protect Russian interests)." yeah that Europe what a bunch of swell peeps. "Russia on the other hand has bullied Ukraine from the start, forced its government against its people, invaded it, annexed part of it... And somehow America is the bad guy? " nice pile of bullshit there. just like the bullshit with Syria. but I guess when one is a lapdog,one must come to the masters defence. "If America is the bad guy it is only through failure to support the Ukraine." America is the bad guy cause they don't give a fuck about the average Ukrainian.
Hot Rod Revved Up	Sat Jul 19 12:42:13 One word - Obama.
Hot Rod Revved Up	Sat Jul 19 12:43:06 My last was for CR.
Seb Member	Sat Jul 19 12:58:12 Swordtail: How does parliament go from being legitimate to junta? The whole point about democracies is strong independent institutions that can command respect when one goes off the rails. Ukraine's adminstration lost consent of the people to govern. A vote of no confidence, parliament appointing an interim and new elections is the standard practice amongst almost all of Europe. Hell, its practically the standard Belgian govt. Are they juntas too?
Crownroyal Member	Sat Jul 19 13:15:38 How is the government a junta? President and parliament, all were elected. "the Russians didn't invade they were already there. " What bullshit. Russian military can't wonder around the peninsula, beyond Sevastopol base. Anything further is invasion.
obaminated Member	Sat Jul 19 13:16:34 Remember that story about how Russia pays people to post propaganda on behalf of Russia? Anyone else getting the vibe that Jergul is legitimately one of those people? His utter descent from having fairly common sense to now essentially refusing to look at any evidence rationally is pretty astonishing.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Sat Jul 19 13:25:33 Russian media before the civilian airliner was shot down: Woohooo, pro-Russia rebels captured some Buks! Celebrations! Victory for the rebels is at hand! After: There never was a Buk. Rebels cannot have Buks. Because reasons. Here are some questions to distract everyone from these Buk systems that never existed.
swordtail Anarchist Prime	Sat Jul 19 13:29:33 Seb "How does parliament go from being legitimate to junta?" same way America has done nothing according to you. "The whole point about democracies is strong independent institutions that can command respect when one goes off the rails." nay the whole point of democracies is the people decide their fate. and not the americans or the Russians. "Ukraine's adminstration lost consent of the people to govern. A vote of no confidence, parliament appointing an interim and new elections is the standard practice amongst almost all of Europe." great and those elections were valid according to you,yet in crimea and eastern Ukraine they weren't. why is that exactly? couldn't be cause they went against your wishes could it? "Hell, its practically the standard Belgian govt. Are they juntas too?" last I heard belgium is in a twilight zone of sorts with it's government, don't really know,but then again the americans weren't running the show there or were they? but hey I get it. you care for the people. that's why british hit squads weren't stirring up shit in basra offing innocent peeps ,both sunnis and shias,just like they did in northern Ireland. that's why you're doing everything you can for Bahrain. and of course Libya is a tourist paradise now, after your caring for the peeps there. and then we have Syria. assad became worse than hitler overnight. of course the chemical attacks attributed to him"which turned out to be bogus" helped. I get it. America and it's lapdogs care for the people,that's why their figerprints are all over the place . thanks for showing me the error of my ways.
werewolf dictator Member	Sat Jul 19 13:31:19 Ukraine tries to sign a trade deal - Russia piles on the pressure by offering a better deal - the corrupt administration backtracks. People come out on the street for months to create political crisis - as they dont do when yushchenko approval at approximately zero but instead again follow soros-style orange revolution - with nuland showing how much she is working for fuck-the-eu-interests - and privately passing out money besides openly passing out cookies on the streets - nuland says she wants yats to be next prime minister - who by some coincidence [its not a conspiracy its a coincidence theory] becomes prime minister of the coup government.. and anders fogh rasmussen is reminding that decision to put ukraine in nato was made in bucharest 2008 [which makes more sense than thinking fuck-the-eu girl was really interested in promoting eu] the first and most urgent thing the new rump government coup does is pass laws against use of russian language - showing motives of maidan kommandant national social founder parubiy and company in control of streets.. In the meantime Russia invades and annexes Crimea [turned off by lviv style russia haters and according to pew and gallup polls overwhelmingly in favor of russian annexation] - and foments protests as peaceful as maidan in the east - which new coup government decides to swiftly attack with its fricking military immediately following visits of joe biden [whose kid employed by ukraine gas] and head of cia to kiev - russia in turn arming those who are now turned into rebels who then shoot down an airliner. America has done nothing [that seb will not ignore]. Europe, heinously, offered a trade deal (with carveouts for defence and other key industries to protect Russian interests).. and more heinously to americans - germany et al. urged kiev government to stop militarization of political conflict Russia on the other hand has bullied Ukraine from the start by offering better deals, forced its government against its people - unlike joe biden and cia chief who tell government to attack their own people - invaded it, annexed part of it that wanted annexing... And somehow America is the bad guy? If America is the bad guy it is only through failure to try harder to spite russia for the sake of spiting russia - and try harder in attempt to capture what is no more to them than cartographic square on a geopolitical chessboard that russians are interested in
swordtail Anarchist Prime	Sat Jul 19 13:34:42 "Russian media before the civilian airliner was shot down: Woohooo, pro-Russia rebels captured some Buks! Celebrations! Victory for the rebels is at hand! After: There never was a Buk. Rebels cannot have Buks. Because reasons. Here are some questions to distract everyone from these Buk systems that never existed." according to willy wonka the big chief in kiev,the rebels didn't have a buk. is he lying? are you saying Russian and pro Russian media are more truthful? wow! that's a bold statement.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Sat Jul 19 13:36:38 " according to willy wonka the big chief in kiev,the rebels didn't have a buk. is he lying? " He was probably misinformed. Recall that this area had a no-fly zone for civilian traffic below ~30k feet, which would be consistent with bad intel about the buks. " are you saying Russian and pro Russian media are more truthful? wow! that's a bold statement. " This was already explained to you. There is no reason to doubt that JB hooked up with a trans woman, or that billah drank piss. Same thing here.
werewolf dictator Member	Sat Jul 19 13:38:40 'He was probably misinformed.' was he misinformed when he killed a thousand or thousand million [i forget number] rebels a few days before no government is trust worthy here [excluding maybe like germany etc]
Crownroyal Member	Sat Jul 19 13:40:11 God, I hope I would never grow so incurious in life, that I just accept "America did it" explanation for anything and everything, regardless of circumstances, where anything remotely anti-US automatically becomes right. I would like to think that I am smarter than that.
swordtail Anarchist Prime	Sat Jul 19 13:42:47 "He was probably misinformed" yeah just like he's being misinformed about the Odessa massacre and civilians being bombed by kiev airplanes. thanks again for clarifying it for me.
werewolf dictator Member	Sat Jul 19 13:43:46 is there any place in cold war where you think cia and american cash might have acted as force multiplier for coup or just all myths
OsamaIsDaWorstPresid Member	Sat Jul 19 13:45:19 crownroyel ure homland is burnin @ da tuch of da rusiens if rusia was steelin americen land evin fred wuld fite 2 defend his contrie bi runing over rusiens wit his truk shuldint u return 2 ure homland and buy a snipar rifel and kil sum mavls an jerguls and swordfails?
earthpig GTFO HOer	Sat Jul 19 13:51:39 " yeah just like he's being misinformed about the Odessa massacre and civilians being bombed by kiev airplanes. " I've never denied that Ukraine's armed forces have been inhumane. " is there any place in cold war where you think cia and american cash might have acted as force multiplier for coup " Yup, lots of places. Why are these things being implicitly attributed to me? The evidence pointing to proRussia rebels in this case does not somehow translate into Ukraine and/or CIA being angels of humanity and wonder in all cases all the time.
werewolf dictator Member	Sat Jul 19 13:54:08 sorry that part about cia was in response to crown royal saying that 'I hope I would never grow so incurious in life, that I just accept "America did it" explanation for anything and everything' because i am pretty sure that was aimed at me
werewolf dictator Member	Sat Jul 19 13:55:00 *and swordtail
swordtail Anarchist Prime	Sat Jul 19 13:56:57 the evidence is still being collected. the evidence is being spun by assholes on both sides,yet 1 set of assholes is more kosher for some unexplained reason. the evidence for assad's alleged chem attack wasn't even collected, yet the verdict was in with in minutes and pointed to assad according to americans and their lap dogs. yet it turned out to be bogus.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Sat Jul 19 13:56:58 Ah ok.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Sat Jul 19 13:57:22 ^ @ WD
earthpig GTFO HOer	Sat Jul 19 13:58:19 " the evidence for assad's alleged chem attack wasn't even collected, yet the verdict was in with in minutes and pointed to assad " Assad did not boast about gassing people and then try to delete/erase his boasting when it became apparent that the people in question were civilians.
Seb Member	Sat Jul 19 14:02:54 Swordtail: Yes indeed. And America has done nothing and Russia has invaded and annexed Crimea and flooded east Ukraine with partisans from the caucuses and weapons from its surplus stocks. America has done nothing - and you are defending Russia's carve up of Ukraine.
swordtail Anarchist Prime	Sat Jul 19 14:04:37 "Assad did not boast about gassing people and then try to delete/erase his boasting when it became apparent that the people in question were civilians." but did that stop the experts here from condememing him and spewing the bullshit they heard fro the media? no. we do have the assholes from kiev on record boasting about what they were gonna do and they are doing it now yet it bothers no one.
swordtail Anarchist Prime	Sat Jul 19 14:06:43 seb sanctimony suits you quite well. keep up the good work.
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 14:31:26 EP I would not be surprised if the rebels had captured a BUK launcher. It seems very likely. However, the rebels could not have used it and Moscow would want it transferred to their territory as sources tend to indicate had taken place. Either Russia shot it down or the Ukraine did. Most likely the Ukraine with its 2:1 advantage on batteries to screw up with in the area (if we assume it is correct that a battery under Moscow's technical control was in the area). The story so far is playing out exactly as it did in 2001 when Ukraine shot down a civilian plane. It started blaming rebels back then too (chechens). Never mind that never in the history of mankind have rebels shot down a high altitude aircraft, while state actors have done it 100ds of times with missiles and 1000nds of times if you include AAA. Ukraine has shot down 1 high altitude civilian aircraft and Russia 2 for the record. Not including this time.
Sam Adams Member	Sat Jul 19 15:00:16 Jurgul still thinks that rebels, full of ex military types and entire rebel units of current military, somehow could not use a system they were trained on, and admitted to using. And swordfail is just permanently stupid. Everything that russia does is good, and everything that the US/EU does is bad.
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 15:06:03 Sammy Rebels are always full of ex military types. Find one example of them shooting down a high altitude aircraft in the history of mankind. We know that Ukraine had two times as many BUK batteries in the area under high alert as might possibly have been under Moscow's control. Boy are you stupid. Seriously.
obaminated Member	Sat Jul 19 15:09:02 Jergul believes that because ukraine has more systems in the area, then it is more likely their systems did it. He is completely ignoring motive. Why the rebels have a motive and why ukraine has zero motive to shoot down a plane.
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 15:10:35 How is it possible to have a post secondary education in "sciences" and not understand probability. 1. It was a massive screw-up no matter who did it. 2. Ukraine had more batteries to screw up with. Fire authority being at battery level under high alert. Note that it is certain that Ukraine had batteries and possible that Russia did under its control. The rebels? It has never happened. Not in the history of mankind. You do the math.
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 15:18:53 Obam The batteries were at high alert to defend against Russian air incursions (after Ukraine claimed Russia had shot down one of its planes). Remember that the Ukraine has screwed up before. Shooting down a civilian aircraft in 2001. So yah, its just a question of probability once you have a high alert status. Ukrainian batteries were fire ready. All they needed was a massive screw-up.
Sam Adams Member	Sat Jul 19 15:23:05 "Find one example of them shooting down a high altitude aircraft in the history of mankind. " 3 days ago, when they shot down that 777? Jergul, they had the batteries. They had the track record of being the only people in the region to be shooting at planes. It was over their territory. And they admitted to doing it on 3 separate electronic mediums. You seem to be stuck in step 1a out of 677. You keep focusing on primitive intelligence from the first minute after the plane went down. Everyone has moved on to other pieces of info days ago. Only you, out of all of UP, seems to be unable to grasp this.
Sam Adams Member	Sat Jul 19 15:26:36 Oh, I forgot, all the local rebel villagers who saw the sam going up from their town.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Sat Jul 19 15:41:32 Even if we go with the probability thing, which we do not need to do because we know exactly who had the means, motive, opportunity, and confessed.... Who is more likely to think an aircraft coming from the west is an enemy aircraft? Ukrainians, who perhaps think Russia built an air base in Kiev without them noticing, or Pro-Russian rebels?
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 15:42:22 Sammy You have an audio supplied by the Ukrainian KGB claiming to be a tape of some people talking about other people having shoot down a plane. The rumoured deleted twitter and fb posts amount to the same thing. Someone saying they think someone else in another group did something. It is incidentally the Ukrainian KGB that supplied the information about rebels having BUKs. Discounting a rumoured unnamed journalist claiming the same. A tweet, a fb post, and some claims from the KGB that in sum only amount to hearsay anyway (people believing someone else did something). Which is entirely reasonable if true. A plane crashes. We must have brought it down. Who of our guys actually have any manpads? Oh the Cossaks by the checkpoint. It must be them then. I personally believe it possible the rebels have captured a BUK launcher and that possibly Russia has put together an operative system under its control on Ukrainian territory. I also personally believe that its entirely possible that some cossak rebels at some checkpoint had a few manpads. What remains certain is that the Ukraine had a shitload of BUK batteries in Eastern Ukraine and that those are under high alert. I have narrowed it down to 2 batteries within range (of 7) based on Russian information that I found credible as deployed batteries have overlaps for redundancy. So again: 1. One huge fuck up. 2. 2 Ukrainian batteries under high alert 3. Possibly 1 Russian controlled battery 4. Rebels? Never in the history of mankind. 66% Chance Ukraine 33% Chance Russia 1% Very charitable chance of rebels. Its not as if Russia and the Ukrain have not fucked up massively like this before either. What's the fixation of trying to blame some unidentifiable hick anyway? State actors are the way to go if you want accountability.
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 15:46:11 EP You can just review the information again. Just to see if your education has paid off at all. Try to understand son. Nothing is worse than a wasted mind.
McKobb Member	Sat Jul 19 15:50:33 Pot, kettle. Tea?
earthpig GTFO HOer	Sat Jul 19 16:00:26 Jergul actually agrees with the Ukrainian "KGB" and government, it turns out. " Driving home its assertion that the Boeing 777 was hit by a Russian SA-11 radar-guided missile, Ukraine's Western-backed government said it had "compelling evidence" the battery was not just brought in from Russia but manned by three Russian citizens who had now taken the truck-mounted system back over the border. The prime minister, denying Russian suggestions that Kiev's forces had fired a missile, said only a "very professional" crew could have brought down the speeding jetliner from 33,000 feet - not "drunken gorillas" among the ill-trained insurgents who want the Russian-speaking east to be annexed by Moscow. " http://www...airplane-idUSKBN0FO04620140719
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 16:08:25 EP Well of course. Its inductive logic. The Ukrainians are getting around to putting together a plausible not the ukraine, but someone else fuckup scenario. It may even be true. At 33% likelihood. They could have gotten on the ball sooner if they had read this forum.
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 16:13:55 Sammy Do you feel pwnd by the Ukrainian Government getting behind the Jergul line?
Sam Adams Member	Sat Jul 19 17:19:07 So jergul, you admit the 777 was shot down by russians?
jergul large member	Sat Jul 19 17:44:21 Either Russians or Ukrainians. Mostly likely Ukraine as it had twice the number of batteries to fuck up with if we assume Russia actually had one deployed in Ukraine.
McKobb Member	Sat Jul 19 17:55:39 lol
hot niggarod Member	Sat Jul 19 18:00:49 blame it on the crack
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