Utopia Talk / Politics / US bombs Iran nuke faculties

Pillz breaker of wtb	Sat Jun 21 19:17:30 LIVE: US joins Israel’s attacks on Iran, bombs three nuclear sites | Israel attacks Lebanon News | Al Jazeera http://share.google/0jZwIWPHzwa3pOw8J
Rugian Member	Sat Jun 21 19:54:42 http://ten...lord-of-the-rings-gif-16155441
murder Member	Sat Jun 21 20:07:26 The US was always involved.
Sam Adams Member	Sat Jun 21 20:41:46 The bombs(or secondarys) at fordrow were so big you can see them the European weather sattelite. And thats a shitty old sat too
Dukhat Member	Sat Jun 21 21:18:33 Airpower is unlikely to do much without boots on the ground. Fucking Trump's mind is gone. America is not Israel's lackey.
Sam Adams Member	Sat Jun 21 21:39:07 Cuckhat this is far and away trumps best move ever. Which isnt saying much but trump is in fact playing this exactly correctly. Even the french are politically backing it, rumor is a brit carrier is physically involved and russia has basically hung iran out to dry. Iran is so politically and militarily fucked. Between israels intel and our heavy weapons this is airpower at its most effective since Nagasaki.
Pillz breaker of wtb	Sat Jun 21 21:39:38 You don't need boots on the ground to destroy nuclear facilities. Wtf is boots on the ground gonna accomplish
Sam Adams Member	Sat Jun 21 21:40:36 http://pbs...kAAlK07?format=jpg&name=medium
tumbleweed the wanderer	Sat Jun 21 21:56:09 i hope this won't affect the $1.98 gas we've been enjoying for weeks
Average Ameriacn Member	Sun Jun 22 00:36:16 That's what you get when you call him TACO! From now on you better treat our President with respect! MAGA!
TheChildren Member	Sun Jun 22 00:37:43 hello dakrness ur ol friend! http://www...illion_americans_conned_again/ boots on da ground incomin when u realize u failed only way 2 take those bases is actual boots on da ground and invasion force. ur cucked
TheChildren Member	Sun Jun 22 00:50:27 also wut happened 2 two weeks? actually we know, this screams panic time coz prolly coz scott ritta and douglas were right. them intaceptors r runnin dry they dunt got 2 weeks 2 wait. they was panic mode, yestaday almost everything from iran got through. and they target precision, which means they r unchallenged and own da skies effectively so that means panic, this wuld xplain da joining of da war.
jergul large member	Sun Jun 22 01:49:32 To be fair, it would have been utterly amazing if Trump had been able to withstand the heavy lobby that always exists for Israeli interests. Interesting though that 3 targets were hit. The two others illustrate Israel's impotence quite nicely. Throwing slaps across Syria and Iraq is just not something Israel can do effectively.
TheChildren Member	Sun Jun 22 02:01:40 indeed it does, raises da questions why they didnt do themselves word on da street was, i think scott ritta again, that they moved them fatamies out of da country out of fear they might get destroyed durin missile strikes and if we was 2 believe that fatamies indeed got taken out (5 of them) then that wuld xplain why they didnt send fatamies 2 those sights themselves eeverythin is fallin in2 place now, they culdnt destroy those targets themselves coz them fatamies was taken out thats why murica needed 2 step in and they culdnt wait 2 weeks coz da intaceptors piles was runnin low... indeed it is now clear
TheChildren Member	Sun Jun 22 02:07:34 http://www...ndo-pacific-ahead-trumps-intel da comments r gold. sounds like iran launched a bunch of missiles 2day...no air defense, no iron dome!! read da comments, da new comments and scroll down
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Jun 22 02:11:13 Rough day today for the enemies of The West and their useful idiots.
TheChildren Member	Sun Jun 22 02:17:57 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8dzL3biesA is this da day u is cheerin with champagne like those yemenis at a weddin with those missiles flyin in da background skies and shit surreal timeline if there is any word 4 it
Average Ameriacn Member	Sun Jun 22 03:22:19 MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!!! MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!!! MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!!! MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!!! MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!!! MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!!! MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!!! MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!!! MAGA!!! MAGA!!! MAGA!!! MAGA!!! MAGA!!! MAGA!!! MAGA!!!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Jun 22 04:34:26 IRGC missiles are now being launched from eastern Iran, the western parts of Iran. Do you know why? Because Israeli airstrikes are so ineffective, Russian SAMs so strong, so Israel has only been able to destroy a handful of launchers. Remember the people betting against Israel, did so in the opening days of the war: The war would last only weeks. They bet against Israel fighting Hezbollah, just wait, you will see, they told us. The same people who ”didn’t see Syrian coming”? They are here as the everlasting useful idiots of the Islamic republic, betting against Israel. You can not teach a man something when his political identity rests upon not understanding it.
TheChildren Member	Sun Jun 22 04:52:22 some commenter posted this, u do not undastand da severity http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSiEzM_sp50
TheChildren Member	Sun Jun 22 04:58:13 it looks like earthquake zone... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxJ2hHtEMxc
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Jun 22 05:18:27 You dumb ass people are speaking SPANISH in some of those videos, clearly from wild fires. Anyway. I am shocked by the organizational incompetence, but not really. Nobody with a brain works for the IRGC, the only people who do, are fervently revolutionary and ideologically pure. That is their drive. And, well, these are the results: a regime with shit technology and non-existent institutional memory or resilience. Holy shit.
murder Member	Sun Jun 22 05:35:38 "IRGC missiles are now being launched from eastern Iran, the western parts of Iran. Do you know why? Because Israeli airstrikes are so ineffective, Russian SAMs so strong, so Israel has only been able to destroy a handful of launchers." Unless Iran's missiles are falling short, I don't understand what you mean. It makes perfect sense for Iran to move their missiles beyond the reach of Israel's fighter jets regardless of how effective or ineffective Israel's airstrikes have been or how effective or ineffective the S-000 series of Soviet crap has been. -
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Jun 22 05:45:08 No it would not make any sense to *retreat* unless you are forced to. IRGC missiles less accurate the longer they have to travel. Your framing is such that IRGC proactively moved the launchers, but we know they reacted to having their shit blown. You are mistaking necessity for strategy.
Patriotic UPer Member	Sun Jun 22 05:53:38 " trumps best move ever.[...] Between israels intel" You mean the same rhetoric that Trump repeated that Netenyahu has since the 1990s? Netenyahu: "3-5 years" Trump on Fox yesterday: 'matter of a few weeks months' US intel agency (Tulsi Gabbard): We don't have any intel or evidence. Same regurgitated shit, same rhetoric and dumbass sam and the like "seeeee da powah" But let's remember, just like Sam's hero, even though he won't admit it. Couldn't join the military either due to 'medical' reasons, so want's to play command and conquer in real life instead by sitting their fat ass on the couch.
Asgard Member	Sun Jun 22 06:00:01 “We don't have any intel or evidence.“ Building nuclear facilities meant to enrich (centrifuges) and not for research ( a reactor), is all you need to know what they intend to do - build a bomb. It doesn’t tKe genius. Having evidence is too late, by definition.
Patriotic UPer Member	Sun Jun 22 06:04:36 "Building nuclear facilities meant to enrich (centrifuges) and not for research ( a reactor), is all you need to know what they intend to do - build a bomb. It doesn’t tKe genius." Yet, we gave them the technology. And then for decades, a timeline given, similar language they will be able to do this and not one weapon developed? Be a broken record all you want...
TheChildren Member	Sun Jun 22 08:17:20 does they spanish speak now, little man http://www...ad-trumps-intel#comment-stream
Rugian Member	Sun Jun 22 08:45:01 "Iran's nuclear program has expanded dramatically, with enriched uranium stockpiles exceeding JCPOA limits by tens of times, some nearing weapons-grade purity.[2] According to the IAEA, Iran is "the only non-nuclear-weapon state to produce such material".[9] The US and Iran have engaged in bilateral negotiations since April 2025, aiming to curb Iran's program for sanctions relief, though Iran's leaders have refused to stop enriching uranium.[10] In October 2023, an IAEA report estimated Iran had increased its uranium stockpile 22 times over the 2015 agreed JCPOA limit. [11] In the last months of the Biden administration, new intelligence persuaded US officials that Iran was exploring a cruder design that could enable Iran to manufacture a nuclear weapon, undeliverable by missile, in a matter of months.[12][13][14][15] On 12 June 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found Iran non-compliant with its nuclear obligations for the first time in 20 years.[16][17] Iran retaliated by launching a new enrichment site and installing advanced centrifuges.[18] One day later, Israel launched coordinated strikes across Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and damaging Natanz and other sites.[19][20]" http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran Sounds like pretty compelling evidence to me...
Patriotic UPer Member	Sun Jun 22 09:42:12 Oh do you mean the increase as Trump pulled out of the deal that allowed Iran to continue is investment in enrichment? Regardless, that isn't evidence they were making the weapon. It's the same or tired argument. US helped Iran start their enrichment during the 1950s. Add in progress, regression, some bit of stifling and broken promises by the US. With each administration taking turns either providing incentives to stop enrichment -for the fear of- no solid evidence has ever been produced. Only to fast forward to this Administration during 1.0 pull out of an agreement, which emboldened Iran to resume enrichment, but still no weapon made. As the same rhetoric it would only take them "3 to 5 years" now with Trump saying "weeks and months" and you want to rely on Wikipedia. Where the US intel community says they don't have evidence a weapon was in development. Stfu
Patriotic UPer Member	Sun Jun 22 09:46:11 It boils down to two prominent points. US Intelligence View: Iran has not made the political decision to build a bomb. Israeli Intelligence View: Iran has built the technical ability and could make that decision at any moment, hence their concerns. US being manipulated, in this case Trump because of his fragile ego.
Rugian Member	Sun Jun 22 09:47:10 Youre not nesrly as intelligent as you think you are.
Allahuakbar Member	Sun Jun 22 09:52:09 Infidel Rugian: "Iran's nuclear program has expanded dramatically" Do you know the reason why it happened? The reason was Trump, I'll show you: http://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/23528.jpeg
Patriotic UPer Member	Sun Jun 22 09:53:00 "Youre not nesrly as intelligent as you think you are." You're not nearly as intelligent as you think you are.
Patriotic UPer Member	Sun Jun 22 10:03:44 It's known that Trump doesn't listen, participate, or regarding affairs of the state and intelligence. 1. US intelligence told senators Iran not building nuclear weapon... https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jun/18/donald-trump-brad-lander-ice-iran-israel-pakistan-india-fed-jerome-powell-us-politics-live-updates?utm_source=chatgpt.com 2. US spies said Iran wasn’t building a nuclear weapon. Trump dismisses that assessment https://apnews.com/article/gabbard-trump-intelligence-iran-nuclear-program-51c8d85d536f8628870c110ac05bb518
Rugian Member	Sun Jun 22 10:07:21 Allahuakbar: JCPOA was always just a maneuver to kick the can down the road. We were always going to get to this point eventually, Trump just sped up the timeline by withdrawing from it. To the multi...really, shilling for Iran is absolutely pathetic. This isn't Iraq; Iran's nuclear program is very well established and verified. And even if you were otherwise inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt, Iran has repeatedly proven over the decades that it's one of the last countries who should even have the possibility of being able to develop a nuclear program. These shitheads have been behind almost every bad actor and terrorist group in the Middle East, from Iraqi militias to the Assad regime to Hezbollah to Hamas to the Houthis. They're perennially threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz and vital traffic in the Arabian Gulf. One of their most popular slogans is literally "Marg bar Amrika." And I'm not even taking into account the fact that they happily stifle domestic dissent by machine-gunning protestors. That's not a reason to attack them, it just further speaks to what a shitty regime they are. So yeah. No benefit of the doubt is due to these fuckers. Bomb the shit out of them.
Patriotic UPer Member	Sun Jun 22 10:17:49 "To the multi...really, shilling for Iran is absolutely pathetic." No shilling. Just pointing out that particular action was no more a decision made by Trump while having no intentions of negotiating with Iran as he remains a puppet of Israel. Spin it however you want it as me taking a stance for Iran, which is not the case, but you are conditioned to think that any rational perspective that challenges the narrative would be that case. You can just fuck right off with that. "This isn't Iraq; Iran's nuclear program is very well established and verified." Not disputing that, nor have I mentioned the contrary, nor has anyone else for that matter, it's the question of weaponization. But "not isn't Iraq", the parallels remain. Just you're too fucking dense to make connections because you still have your mouth on the tip of Trump's cock. "And even if you were otherwise inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt, Iran has repeatedly proven over the decades that it's one of the last countries who should even have the possibility of being able to develop a nuclear program. These shitheads have been behind almost every bad actor and terrorist group in the Middle East, from Iraqi militias to the Assad regime to Hezbollah to Hamas to the Houthis. They're perennially threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz and vital traffic in the Arabian Gulf. One of their most popular slogans is literally "Marg bar Amrika."" Oh, you're concern about that region? So nice for you to care... "And I'm not even taking into account the fact that they happily stifle domestic dissent by machine-gunning protestors. That's not a reason to attack them, it just further speaks to what a shitty regime they are." Kinda like deploying military against citizens amiright? Many shitty regime exist...why aren't we dealing with them as impactful? Bottomline, Trump is concerned with destabilization as he has significant business and financial ties to the Middle East, especially in the Gulf region, through licensing deals, golf resorts, real estate projects, and brand expansion. Which raises concerns over conflicts of interest, especially during and after his presidency. Spare me your concern about a shitty regime, there are more pressing ones that are more of a thread than Iran.
Rugian Member	Sun Jun 22 10:17:54 "1. US intelligence told senators Iran not building nuclear weapon... https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jun/18/donald-trump-brad-lander-ice-iran-israel-pakistan-india-fed-jerome-powell-us-politics-live-updates?utm_source=chatgpt.com 2. US spies said Iran wasn’t building a nuclear weapon. Trump dismisses that assessment https://apnews.com/article/gabbard-trump-intelligence-iran-nuclear-program-51c8d85d536f8628870c110ac05bb518" So according to Tulsi Gabbard, in March Iran wasn't actively building a weapon (which is not the same thing as saying that Iran doesn't have the capacity to build a weapon, which is what Biden's intelligence officials told him months ago)... ...but it's no longer March, it's June...and now Iran is launching a uranium enrichment center and the installation of advanced centrifuges. Source? Iran themselves said so. By the way, I opted to use Wikipedia because it's famous for having a leftwing slant. They certainly can't be accused of pushing Trump's propaganda.
Patriotic UPer Member	Sun Jun 22 10:29:19 "So according to Tulsi Gabbard, in March Iran wasn't actively building a weapon (which is not the same thing as saying that Iran doesn't have the capacity to build a weapon, which is what Biden's intelligence officials told him months ago)... ...but it's no longer March, it's June...and now Iran is launching a uranium enrichment center and the installation of advanced centrifuges. Source? Iran themselves said so. By the way, I opted to use Wikipedia because it's famous for having a leftwing slant. They certainly can't be accused of pushing Trump's propaganda." Look, there's a big difference between having the ability to make a nuclear weapon and actually deciding to build one. Iran definitely has the technical understanding, and yes, they've been enriching more uranium and installing advanced centrifuges...but that alone doesn't mean they're making a bomb. Still, as of June 2025, both US intelligence and international nuclear watchdogs like the IAEA say the same thing they've been saying for years: Iran is not actively building a nuclear weapon. There's no evidence of warhead design work, weapons testing, or anything else you'd expect if they were really going for a bomb. So yeah, it's fair to be concerned about their nuclear program. But let's not jump to conclusions or confuse "capability" with "intent." Even with the decision with the strikes, this was Trump's baby that gave Iran the motive to get as far as they have.
Sam Adams Member	Sun Jun 22 11:18:52 Are retards actually trying to claim iran enriched all that uranium to nearly weapons grade, and its purpose was not to build a bomb? Lol retarded.
Dukhat Member	Sun Jun 22 11:35:10 Trump's own officals said so including the idiots he appointed at the very top. This administration just moves the goalposts constantly for this dementia don.
TheChildren Member	Sun Jun 22 11:44:35 da latest! http://youtu.be/3P7F2YARMaY?t=45 sounds like failure also illegals by law and shit
TheChildren Member	Sun Jun 22 11:46:09 word is homuz straight where tons of trade goes through is gonna closed off ur cooked
Patriotic UPer Member	Sun Jun 22 12:01:19 "Are retards actually trying to claim iran enriched all that uranium to nearly weapons grade, and its purpose was not to build a bomb? Lol retarded." Better make a new list of countries to pre-emptively strike if that is the new metric. Stop pretending to care that you have concerns about destabilization in the ME US being endangered. It's all bullshit. But hey youre the king of armchair general. Go back to your simulation games, Satan.
LazyCommunist Member	Sun Jun 22 12:04:17 :-) http://x.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/1936725544017567860 Dmitry Medvedev@MedvedevRussiaE What have the Americans accomplished with their nighttime strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran? 1. Critical infrastructure of the nuclear fuel cycle appears to have been unaffected or sustained only minor damage. 2. The enrichment of nuclear material — and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons — will continue. 3. A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads. 4. Israel is under attack, explosions are rocking the country, and people are panicking. 5. The US is now entangled in a new conflict, with prospects of a ground operation looming on the horizon. 6. Iran’s political regime has survived — and in all likelihood, has come out even stronger. 7. The people are rallying around the country’s spiritual leadership, including those who were previously indifferent or opposed to it. 8. Donald Trump, once hailed as ‘president of peace,’ has now pushed the US into another war. 9. The vast majority of countries around the world oppose the actions of Israel and the United States. 10. At this rate, Trump can forget about the Nobel Peace Prize — not even with how rigged it has become. What a way to kick things off, Mr. President. Congratulations!
Hrothgar Member	Sun Jun 22 12:13:21 I still don't know what to make of this. Certainly no fan of the gov and armed forces of fundy theocracy Iran and their decades of "death to America" mantra. I also don't mind a bit that this a extremely shitty for Russia, especially in the current Ukraine conflict. But Trumps lawlessness is damaging to the USA. We're [USA] already on a downward spiral toward some kind of constitutional and financial crisis upheaval. Financially this war will make it worse - global distrust in US dollar pressure grows and ever growing out of control debt. "Rule of law" wise this makes it worse - all the coming political fighting of war powers without congressional approval. I can't see there being no strikes back from Iran. That means escalation and more US involvement. This won't be a one and done event like Trump is trying to frame it out to be. Still, the silver linings of fuck Iran's theocracy and fuck Putin's government are some very fat and nice silver linings.
Seb Member	Sun Jun 22 13:05:25 So far, what I've read doesn't suggest mission accomplished. There are certainly some big holes in the surface but not necessarily all the signatures that you'd expect to see if the facility was destroyed; and some evidence the enriched UF6 may have been removed. Plus, there's the issue of the new facility which they disclosed the existence, but not location of a few weeks back.
Sam Adams Member	Sun Jun 22 13:10:28 So seb provides evidence that the bombing should continue.
Paramount Member	Sun Jun 22 13:11:29 Trump: “Israel is safer now” Hours later: http://youtube.com/post/UgkxVOynkGc8ZG4FAZvRXETBcWzYpalMc7up USA and Israel needs to nuke Iran. Especially the cities where the people live, Tehran and so on. The Jews will never be safe until everyone else is dead.
Seb Member	Sun Jun 22 13:13:26 Sam: Yes. Probably the least worst option at this point given that the US has lost all diplomatic credibility. But I reckon it's more likely than not that Iran will get a bomb within 2 years if the regime survives.
Sam Adams Member	Sun Jun 22 13:25:20 "lost all diplomatic credibility." Lol. Everyone knows that iran had it coming. Even russia and china are pretty muted. The only ones really complaining are far leftist weenies in the west because everything trump does must be opposed by such unthinking clowns. Them plus a few pariah states like venezuela and nk.
Seb Member	Sun Jun 22 13:56:00 Sam: Hmm. No. People recall that Iran has the legal right to enrich (but not build a bomb), struck an agreement which it kept to but the US broke, and that the US president has now claimed to have negotiated in bad faith twice: pushing negotiations while having committed to killing the lead negotiator and then bragging about it, saying he wants more talks then launching new attacks. Sympathy for Iran will be limited, but the US credibility as a diplomatic partner is irretrievably fucked. You might as well just go and shoot some ambassadors to the US at this point.
Seb Member	Sun Jun 22 16:59:36 So seen some good hi Res pictures. If there were 14 MOPs and six holes that seems encouraging. On the other hand looking at the layout of the site I expect there will be heavy blast doors segmenting the centrifuge halls, and not much evidence of underground fires. And Iran buying the entrances a few days ago (clearly worried about commandos) suggests they probably did remove the uranium. So at best a bunch of centrifuges dead. But I also strongly think by they have another site based off the disclosure to the IAEA pre Israeli campaign that I assume Israel and US haven't located yet (if they had, they'd shout about it).
Rugian Member	Sun Jun 22 17:07:52 Seb The US never signed on to JCPOA. You didnt get a firm commitment from the US government, you got it from one man - Barack Obama. Any legal or other obligations to honor it went away as soon as Obama left office. *shrug* Shouldnt have agreed to such a shitty deal. The US Senate rightfully shot it down because they recognized it as the can-kicking measure that it was - a delaying action designed to defer the problem until the principals behind it were comfortably out of office.
Seb Member	Sun Jun 22 17:13:38 Rugian: Exactly. The US isn't a stable enough polity to negotiate with, nothing it's govt says is worth anything because even the same administration can turn on a dime.
Seb Member	Sun Jun 22 17:19:03 In any case opponents are objectively wrong - we know for a fact that Iran stuck with the obligations, and the US withdrawal resultes in Iran building up enrichment activity. Meanwhile military action seems to offer at best a delay. Withdrawal from JCPOA also resulted in Iran increasing support for it's proxy network and may have helped precipitate Hamas's attack. It's a really just a replay of what happened in North Korea. But stupid people rarely learn.
Sam Adams Member	Sun Jun 22 18:37:38 "but not build a bomb" Yet they tried to build a bomb. Seb is a classic eurotalker. Says "stop" and doesnt do a thing when the line is crossed.
Sam Adams Member	Sun Jun 22 18:49:17 "JCPOA" Ya they were going to violate that and count on europe/democrats being too soft to do anything about it. But they failed to account for trump/netanyahu
Patriotic UPer Member	Sun Jun 22 20:50:05 "Ya they were going to violate that and count on europe/democrats being too soft to do anything about it." They were more motivated to continue their enrichment because of Trump. Can't blame the others on this one chump
Sam Adams Member	Mon Jun 23 00:04:09 Hush retarded multi.
Seb Member	Mon Jun 23 00:59:57 Sam: Looks more like they were trying to get you to sign up JCPOA 2 actually. "Says "stop" and doesn't do a thing when the line is crossed." Indeed. We Should have sanctioned the fuck out of the US for breaking JCPOA. After all, we were parties to it also. "Ya they were going to violate that" Can't violate it when the US has broken it already. But the really unconvincing thing about this line of argument is that breaking the JCPOA means having secret research facilities unknown to the US. But if that's possible then bombing is also a failure. My suspicion is when all of this is done is that military measures will have demonstrably failed to delay an Iranian bomb more than JCPOA, in which case it's obvious to all but dummies like you it wasn't successful. It's the geopolitical equivalent of a codpiece: compensation for the insecure.
TheChildren Member	Mon Jun 23 01:15:25 1 day ago no change da regime 2day ya da regume culd go color revlution http://www...et-iranian-troops-or-civilians
Seb Member	Mon Jun 23 01:23:19 Hmm. They don't appear to have bombed the big 100m underground facility near Nantz either. And the Fordow strike was about 70% of the stockpile of MOPs. Seems a bit stupid to me.
TheChildren Member	Mon Jun 23 01:50:50 ya it is a fail also first it was like 6 used then it was like, no no no it was 12 then someone says 14...like da story changes every time... so 12 or 14 used and still a fail. lol
Seb Member	Mon Jun 23 02:00:57 14. B2s can carry two MOPs, and there were 7 B2s.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 03:26:35 Is trump actually smart? One way to dissengage is to remove critical capacity that only you have. Only the US has MOPs. Whoopsie. Now the US does not have a usuable amount of MOPs. He knows at least that there is no upside for him politically to move beyond performance art in Iran.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 03:30:29 Maybe it is just animal cunning. Or a good advisor hidden away in some DoD office. But yeah, throwing away the disposable MOBs The 16 or so left in reserve is a reserve, or so it could be argued. Also a reason to help Iran give a muted response "listen, we did what we had to do. You know how Israel is in the US. But we made sure we cannot do it again, so lets keep this low-key mkay? So a repeat of his suleiman adventure?
Seb Member	Mon Jun 23 03:44:33 I think that's giving this admin far too much credit. You don't boast about killing your negotiating partner mid-negotiations and say that negotiations were a smokescreen all along if you are looking to try and state manage things that way. At least 20 were known to be purchased, but more than 20 used in tests, so I think the number of "only 20 built" may actually be a bit of a myth. But it's not a large stockpile. We will see what happens. Particularly intrigued that they seem to have ignored both the deep and shallow underground facilities at Natanz. Plus this new facility supposedly somewhere near Isfahan.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Jun 23 03:47:02 Throughout these threads we keep encountering a kind of paradox e.g: on one hand, there’s the insistence that the Supreme Leader will never pursue nuclear weapons because of a fatwa. On the other hand, there are constant threats from the Islamic Republic to enrich more uranium or leave the NPT—moves that only make sense if the nuclear option is on the table. This is all explained away as politics. But that glosses over the key point: why it works as a bargaining chip. I can tell you, as someone who has followed this discussion in Farsi for years—not a single serious analyst inside Iran has ever treated the fatwa as a genuine obstacle, I have never even heard it mentioned. Well, there was one time—and then another analyst immediately explained why it wasn’t relevant, because [what Fatwas are and how Fatwas work]. It’s theater.
Seb Member	Mon Jun 23 03:49:09 Maybe Netenyahu is all in on regime change. Doesn't believe he can achieve anything by diplomacy or through air power, and he's hoping they Iranian's do something like a terrorist attack in the US that drags the US in on the ground. I personally am very skeptical that you can do anything that changes much strategically through air power alone, but even to the extent you can try to, this seems underwhelming so far. Unless they have some very clever 11D chess where they are relying on reflexive control of Iranian response to open some kind of window where something critical becomes vulnerable - which is always a possibility but one of those unobservables one shouldn't bet on.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 04:18:48 Some Iranian sources confirm the US gave pre-warning and signalled this was going to be a one-off attack similiar to the one Trump did before that I mentioned. Trump has a pattern of hyperbole, then backing down. See rocket man and a pretty blatant threat of using nuclear weapons on NK before having summits with the NK leader. God, why did people ever do business with this guy? What a nightmare. Not much of a paradox. Forces in Iran want a nuclear arsenal. They just have the equivalent of a US Supreme Court ruling forbidding nuclear weapons. So work is done towards threshold status in case that ever changes. And of course voices in Iran clamour to withdraw from the NPT. It has grounds now btw. It was just attacked by two nuclear powers. The treaty explicity forbids that. The US and Israel are in violation, though Israel is of course not a signee, that still does not matter in principle. But nuclear aresenals do provide protection for existential threats and threats against forced disarmament (on the use it or lose it principle), but it does not mean low level conflict will never happen. See India and Pakistan. The big paradox is we have an Iran that has shown decades of patience in not just going for the arsenal, yet that same country is one that in particular cannot be trusted. What BS. Iran would be the same as anyone else. An unusable arsenal in almost all cases that underpins the existential survival of the State. The Israeli plan? Throw shit against the wall and see what sticks. A repeat of 9-11 aftermath would be ideal, but not required. The lesser goal of making all other Israeli and bibi problems go away has been profoundly successful.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 04:21:02 You really going to hand-wave "pattern of previous behavior" with "this gives the admin too much credit" Seb?
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 04:24:56 The counter If Iran gets nukes, then everyone will is easily balanced by see what happens when you attack a signee of the NPT? It develops nukes in response to your breech of that treaty. So never attack a signee of the treaty again.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Jun 23 04:26:49 Seb "And he's hoping the Iranians do something like a terrorist attack in the US that drags the US in on the ground." Or—hear me out—maybe Bibi understands Trump. More than making deals, Trump likes to win. And here’s a golden opportunity: attach himself to the winning team, while letting Israel do the heavy lifting. Do you not see how quickly the Axis of Resistance has collapsed? I warned you about their brittleness in early 2024. Apparently, I wasn’t the only one who saw it coming, possible some people in the IDF and Mossad were listening to me? lol :) Within days, the skies of Iran became an IDF highway. We’re seeing scenes we’ve only associated with Gaza and Yemen—now inside Iran. And yet some of you still talk like we’re living in an alternate timeline where Gaza hasn’t been leveled, Hezbollah hasn’t been castrated, and Iraq’s militias and Yemen’s Houthis are still somehow relevant. We’re living in a world where, apparently, nobody learned anything from Iraq or Afghanistan. So now we have a chorus of voices offering analysis by analogy—constantly warning us of another quagmire, as if history just repeats without context. People are making massive bets on Iran’s demographics and plausible endgames. Yes, there is a Taliban-like faction in Iran—those who would gladly turn the country into another Afghanistan, as long as the Qur’an rules. But these aren’t the people in power, and assuming this fringe faction would prevail in a civil war is pure speculation. People are betting against common sense and pragmatism. Iranians have spent the past 20 years watching what happened to their neighbors.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Jun 23 04:37:43 Jergul That’s great. Except: Fatwas aren’t Supreme Court rulings (those come from the Supreme court of Iran). They’re personal religious opinions by a single cleric—reversible, reinterpretable, and non-binding—especially when that cleric is also *the head of state*. The Islamic Republic routinely instrumentalizes religion when it’s useful, and discards it when it isn’t. Temporary marriages, taqiyya, and usury loopholes are textbook examples. If the fatwa were truly binding, why the constant threats to enrich to weapons-grade and withdraw from the NPT? Why use something as a bargaining chip that is, according to you, jurisprudentially impossible? If this is all religiously forbidden, what exactly are they bluffing with? Empty threats about something they can’t do? ALL of this is perfectly understood inside Iran. You are laundering regime propaganda that relies on Western ignorance—of Islam specifically of fatwas, and of how the Islamic Republic actually functions.
Seb Member	Mon Jun 23 04:42:46 Jergul: Does the Trump admin want to get sickness into a war? No. Does it want to look week? Also no. I think it's just thrashing around rather than having some master plan. We don't want to bomb, I want a deal. Oh, ok you are binning them? Yeah that was totally my idea too. But we aren't. Or maybe we are. We will think about it. Ok,we will bomb Fordow. I said I wouldn't? Deception man. Whatever. Hey Iran, don't hit back this is a one off. What? You need us to bomb Natanz? Nah. Fox says I'm TACO? Ok send some bombers. It's just being blown around by all sorts of forces. He's not going to stick to any particular policy for more than 5 minutes.
Seb Member	Mon Jun 23 04:57:03 "And yet some of you still talk like we’re living in an alternate timeline where Gaza hasn’t been leveled, Hezbollah hasn’t been castrated, and Iraq’s militias and Yemen’s Houthis are still somehow relevant." Excuse me but I mentioned none of those in any of the above, and as you'll recall last year I was pointing out that if Iran *didn't* back Hezbollah and Hamas then this is exactly what could happen to them because that was their deterrent. And now they are in a situation where they are asking their proxies for help and unsurprisingly they aren't interested because Iran left them to hang. But getting back to the subject at hand: Not clear that Fordow had been destroyed, Natanz deep tunnels still intact, third site apparently untouched, uranium for 10 bombs still in play. Not amazing in my view. None of this has anything to do with the current status of Hamas, Hezbollah or the Houthis. "People are betting against common sense and pragmatism" Statistically, that's a pretty good bet. Most situations where the state collapses do not end well without external stabilisation. Revolutionaries often feel this time will be different. Indeed, that whole bit about "radical religious types are a faction but they won't win" is exactly what those toppling the Shah thought. Oops. And indeed I distinctly recall you lecturing me on post Gadaffi Libya. I mean sure, you went tyo believe Iran and it's people are different because you are Iranian. It's natural. The most likely outcome from an air war successfully fracturing the existing state, with no post war peacekeeping force is factional conflict. That's played out many many times. And factional conflict in a situation where a stockpile of weapons grade or near weapons grade material is dangerous to say the last. And if they don't fracture the state, but leave the uranium in place and enough facilities intact, is Iran with a bomb in not very long. All else is noise.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 04:59:18 Nimi The equivalent of the US. And Supreme Court rulings in the US are reversible with time too. A Fatwa from the Supreme Leader is legally binding. He is the Supreme Leader. You are arguing that Iran speaks with a monolith voice. It does not. Of course forces in Iran are working towards a nuclear arsenal if the equivalent of a Supreme Court ruling ever changes. Of course forces in Iran are arguing withdrawal from the NPT is justified any time a nuclear power attacks Iran. Trump knows Iran can push oil above 100 USD very easily. Something as simple as an Iranian administrative inspection regime would do that. Can the US stop that with its ships withdrawn to the Indian Ocean? Well, maybe. If it wants to push oil to 150 USD a barrel.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 05:05:21 Seb Your analysis has a flaw. Iranian survival would show it actually does not need a nuclear arsenal, the internal calculations would not change, not under the current SL at least. I think the only difference in this conflict is that Israel could not have done systematic targetted assassinations of named individuals. It is kind of important to keep command and control intact for a power with nuclear weapons. It does not mean that Iran will never have an arsenal. It just means that fundamentally, nothing has changed. One thing about US involvement. It lowers Iran's need to retaliate. Standing tall is victory enough against those odds.
Seb Member	Mon Jun 23 05:51:50 I don't share your belief about Khomeini being opposed to a bomb. Not does it follow that because they survive now they will survive this happening again. They didn't expect this to happen, they expected their regional proxies to be a solid deterrent to being attacked in the first place. So yes, I think they'll want a bomb now.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 06:03:07 You can have your belief if you like. How nice that you have found religion at such a mature age. He opposition to nuclear weapons is a matter of consisten record spanning decades.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Jun 23 06:13:00 Seb It is the continued implication of what you are saying.
Seb Member	Mon Jun 23 06:59:30 Nim: I am not responsible for your inferences, but I struggle how you take a position that a bomb will be seen by the regime as *more* important because of the total destruction or neutralisation of their regional proxies, as implying a failure to understand that said regional proxies have seen destroyed or neutralised. But to be honest that's not new to me.
Seb Member	Mon Jun 23 07:00:31 Jergul: Note I said "your belief".
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 07:03:03 Seb I am not responsible for your projections Seb. You have a belief. I have an evidence based understanding of this point.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Jun 23 07:17:25 Jergul: “The equivalent of the US. And Supreme Court rulings in the US are reversible with time too.” A fatwa is not the equivalent of a legal ruling. These analogies aren’t helping you. A fatwa is a religious opinion, not binding law — especially when issued by a political actor who can reinterpret or revoke it at will. Even within the Islamic jurisprudence of the Islamic Republic of Iran, a fatwa is not law unless codified by the parliament. Example: temporary marriage (mutʿa) was normalized in Iran only after being supported by numerous fatwas and then codified into the civil code (Article 1075). That’s what it looks like when a fatwa becomes law. So… why didn’t parliament ever codify the fatwa against nuclear weapons? Probably nothing. Anyway. You claimed you could read Khamenei’s mind and peer into the future: “The SL is morally opposed to nuclear weapons and considers them Haram to Islam. There is absolutely no way for him to walk that back even if he were so inclined.” That is false. The fatwa can be quietly overturned, reinterpreted, or simply ignored — especially if survival is at stake. There is no shortage of theological and political exit ramps. And unless you possess supernatural clairvoyance, you have no way of knowing what Khamenei will do or believes deep down. You don’t even know what he had for breakfast. What we do know, as a fact, are the mechanics of Islamic jurisprudence and those in inside the Islamic republic. “You are arguing that Iran speaks with a monolith voice.” No — we are talking about Khamenei, a single man. If his fatwa is truly immovable, then what is being debated? Why are there "forces in Iran" working toward a nuclear arsenal “if the equivalent of a Supreme Court ruling ever changes”? Either it’s immutable, or it’s contingent. You can’t have both. Anyway, you have nullified your own argument. And for the record: the last time a Supreme Leader reversed a supposedly absolute fatwa? Khomeini’s "divine duty" to continue the war with Iraq, reversed with the famous line: “Drinking the chalice of poison.” The Islamic Republic is radically pragmatic when it comes to survival. In fact, Khomeini wrote that the preservation of the Islamic Republic outweighs even the coming of the Mahdi (the Shia messianic figure). Yes — they will postpone the Second Coming if it helps them stay in power. TL;DR: Fatwa, shmatwa. It’s theatre for people like you who have no idea how Islam or the Islamic republic functions. But in this day and age, Jergul, ignorance is a choice, willfully or otherwise.
Cherub Cow Member	Mon Jun 23 07:23:24 "they are starting to realize that the cost of the war with Iran will be every single american realizing jews run this country like a colony" http://x.com/WurzelRoot/status/1936858869638316442
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Jun 23 07:28:39 Seb I never said you didn’t see that Islamic republic deterrent proxies collapsed. What I’m saying is that your strategic map doesn’t seem to update accordingly. To use a physics analogy, you say you’re doing string theory, but you're still operating within Newtonian mechanics. You acknowledge the gravitational collapse, but you model the future as if the mass distribution hasn’t changed. You’re treating this escalation like it’s just part of the cycle — that after the dust settles, Islamic republic resumes its slow march to the bomb. But deterrents that fail catastrophically usually cause regimes to overcorrect, panic, or fall apart. You’re acknowledging MASSIVE tactical failure but still projecting strategic continuity.
Cherub Cow Member	Mon Jun 23 07:29:50 Thomas Massie: "When two countries are bombing each other daily in a hot war, and a third country joins the bombing, that’s an act of war. I’m amazed at the mental gymnastics being undertaken by neocons in DC (and their social media bots) to say we aren’t at war… so they can make war." http://x.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1936722005451010479 Our blood and treasures are being used to eliminate jewish targets in desert shitholes... again. Bunch of boomer retards are regurgitating 9/11 talking points like they never learned their lessons about "[muh WMDs]". No wonder jewish people think of boomers as slaves — they're largely retarded.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 07:33:33 Nimi THE fatwa from the SL is the equivalent of a US Supreme Court ruling. It is a FATWA made by the Supreme Leader of Iran. I claim that he has consistently supported his reasoned ban on nuclear weapons for decades. No, when you say Iran is threatening to develop nukes or withdraw from the NPT, then you are talking about people in Iran who are specifically not the Supreme Leader. The Fatwa can be overturned by the SL just like the US Supreme Court can overturn its earlier rulings. Not secretely however as it would change nothing if nobody knew he had overturned it and Manhattan scaled projects involve a lot of people. Besides, has not Israel infiltrated the crap out of Iran? You are arguing nobody can have a dick in Iran because sex outside of marriage is illegal. The ban is specifically against nuclear weapons. Enriching Urainium to whatever levels is legal in Iran. Perhaps it is best to not put the Islamic Republic into a serious existential threat then? It might force him to reverse his fatwa. Nothing that has happened so far is even close to being an existential crisis. The fatwah from Iran's Supreme Leader is a legally binding decision because he is Iran's supreme leader. Does it matter? Nope. A nuclear armed Iran is not an existential threat to anyone. Not more so than NK having nukes or Pakistan having them. The US and Israel are in gross violation of the NPT. Iran would be entirely justified in de jure or defacto withdrawing from the treaty. Thing is, it does not have to. Attacking Iran is pointless. An unusable nuclear arsenal changes nothing. Israel could have done most of what it has done against an Iran with nuclear weapons too.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 07:46:15 The big deal about Israel throwing shit against the wall to see what sticks is most that "oh noes, now Iran has to get the bomb and I guess we have to stop it because Zionist propaganda has been spouting nonsense for decades". That last is part of the shit against the wall that Israel wants to see stick. But sure, the current SL will not live forever. He successor may have a different view on nuclear weapons. Which tells you why Israel wants the current guy dead. Israel wants a race against the clock with powerful partners helping it do everything to stop an Iranian weapon project. Not that Iran actually getting the bomb would do anyting other than force Israel to cease and desist in provoking an existential crisis in Iran.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Jun 23 07:47:07 Jergul “The Fatwa can be overturned by the SL.” Thank you. That’s all anyone needs to know. Tt can be overturned, it was never a true constraint — just another political instrument. Everything else is noise. You don't need to understand the rest.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 07:48:38 It really is an incredibly low risk gambit for Israel to play. Worth it for saving Bibis bacon in domestic politics and diverting attention away from the ongoing genocide in Gaza as the only reasons for doing it. Never mind the other benefits that may arise.
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 07:50:18 Yes, just like Roe versus Wade was just a political instrument. Iran does not have nukes now because the SL forbade them. That is all you need to know.
TheChildren Member	Mon Jun 23 07:51:38 so there it is. homuz is closed off u is boned
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 08:00:33 That is not a mainstream newsstory yet TC. Hormuz is not closed if nobody know about it.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Jun 23 08:04:18 jergul "Iran does not have nukes now because the SL forbade them." That is possibly the closest you have been to something approximating the truth. Sadly, this was never the question. “The SL is morally opposed to nuclear weapons and considers them Haram to Islam. There is absolutely no way for him to walk that back even if he were so inclined.” "There is absolutely no way for him to walk that back even if he were so inclined.” "absolutely no way"
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 08:13:18 And then add the next sentence for an understanding for what I meant be no way. He can do so as easily as a US Supreme Court Justice completely reverses an opinion he had written earlier with a new justification. I am sure that might maybe have happened in the centuries of US history that have passed. Maybe, but I do not know of an occassion. The SL argued that nuclear weapons are haram and contrary to Islam. I cannot imagine a 90ty something year-old changing his catagorical position. So yes, I will stick with the hyperbolic and venecular "absolutely no way". The next dude? Who knows? The SL is not a leading religious figure in Shia. He is SL, but a legal scholar. Nothing more than that. Hence Israel wanting him dead. It is better for Israel now that Iran seek to gain a nuclear arsenal it can never use. Worst case? Israel will have to stop attacking. Which is what it will have to do anyway.
TheChildren Member	Mon Jun 23 08:25:20 da big oil tankers r turnin round and avoidin da homuz...so it is basically closed or closin http://www...rld-braces-iranian-retaliation
jergul large member	Mon Jun 23 08:29:42 Incidentally 60% enriched uranium had 1/12 the volume of 5% enriched Uranium. Iran has about 400 kg of 60% enriched Uranium. You could fit that into the trunk of a car at 5 grams per cm3. Enough for 10 bombs or so they say. I am so glad we are all sure this has been dealt with.
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